Doubled in Six Months, Nearing 150,000 Yuan per Ton! Behind the Soaring Lithium Prices, the Battery Industry Is Transforming

At the beginning of 2026, lithium carbonate futures once again captured attention with a sustained price surge. On January 9, the main contract for lithium carbonate closed at 143,420 yuan per ton, accumulating an increase of over 120% from the low of 59,900 yuan per ton on June 5, 2025, marking a new high since November 2023.

This price, approaching the 150,000 yuan per ton mark, has become the most notable "price anchor" in the new energy industry chain, directly impacting both upstream and downstream sectors.

"The demand from 2025 to now can be described as full throttle: new energy vehicle sales have grown by over 30% year-on-year, power battery installations have increased by more than 40%, and the energy storage market has become an absolute dark horse, with domestic project bidding volumes doubling and overseas orders surging simultaneously. Its production share is catching up to that of power batteries, and leading companies have already filled their order books into 2026," remarked a capital market analyst regarding the driving factors behind this round of lithium carbonate price increases.

In the view of one industry insider, a mismatch between supply and demand has further intensified short-term supply tightness. "On January 4 this year, the State Council issued a document proposing, in principle, no further approvals for mineral processing projects without self-owned mines or supporting tailings utilization and disposal facilities. Key expansion projects such as Ganfeng Lithium's Cauchari-Olaroz salt lake lithium extraction project in Argentina and Tianqi Lithium's second-phase project in Suining, Sichuan, are still ramping up and are unable to contribute significant supply in the short term. Additionally, concentrated maintenance at lithium iron phosphate (LFP) enterprises before the Chinese New Year led to production reductions."

Furthermore, the "Solid Waste Comprehensive Management Action Plan" released by the State Council on December 27, 2025, added another layer of policy constraints on industry costs, potentially further raising operational expenses for companies in the near term. On January 7 this year, four ministries including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) jointly held a symposium to address irrational competition in the lithium battery industry, explicitly emphasizing strict control over redundant construction and curbing low-price dumping. This policy direction has shifted market expectations regarding industry overcapacity, further fueling the rise in lithium prices.

In response to rising raw material prices, battery manufacturers are taking various countermeasures. Some leading companies have already announced price adjustments. For instance, Suzhou Dejia Energy Technology Co., Ltd. recently announced a 15% price increase for its battery product series.

More importantly, a supply chain restructuring centered on "long-term agreements" is unfolding, making the differentiation within the battery industry chain increasingly pronounced. Leading companies, leveraging their scale advantages and supply chain control, are building competitive moats by signing long-term agreements with price linkage clauses to lock in costs.

Current long-term contracts in the industry generally move away from rigid fixed-price models, adopting dynamic pricing mechanisms such as "linked to the SMM index + cost range," allowing price fluctuations of 10% to 15%, and incorporating flexible volume adjustment clauses to cope with market volatility.

An industry insider gave examples: The supplementary agreement between Longpan Technology and Chuneng New Energy stipulates total sales exceeding 45 billion yuan from 2025 to 2030, while Tianci Materials has committed to supplying 725,000 tons of electrolyte to CALB from 2026 to 2028. Such large-scale long-term agreements typically include technology binding and price linkage clauses.

An industry analyst pointed out that this deep binding model ensures resource supply for leading battery companies while excluding second- and third-tier battery manufacturers from core supply chains, signaling an impending new round of industry consolidation.

"Medium to long term, the massive demand from the global new energy vehicle and energy storage markets will accelerate the exit of low-quality capacity, driving resources and orders to concentrate among leading and vertically integrated enterprises," the analyst noted. "The proportion of profitable enterprises in the LFP sector is only 16.7%, significantly lower than other core lithium battery materials like ternary cathode and anode materials. From 2023 to Q3 2025, five listed LFP companies accumulated losses exceeding 10.9 billion yuan."

In 2025, the CR10 (combined market share of the top ten companies) in China's battery industry increased from 65% to 75%, with leading firms expanding their market share through mergers and acquisitions. Small and medium-sized manufacturers with annual production capacity below 5 GWh are being phased out at an accelerated pace, while the CR5 of leading companies surpassed 50%.

Recently, Salt Lake Co., Ltd. disclosed an asset acquisition plan, proposing to acquire a 51% stake in Wukuang Salt Lake from its controlling shareholder, China Salt Lake, for 4.605 billion yuan in cash. A week earlier, Chengxin Lithium Group announced plans to acquire a 30% stake in Qicheng Mining through its wholly-owned subsidiary for 2.08 billion yuan in cash. These M&A activities indicate that lithium mineral resources are once again becoming highly sought after.

"This is not a short-term speculative-driven trend, but a systematic value reassessment based on genuine supply and demand, cost structures, and industry influence," commented one industry insider. "Companies possessing resource barriers, technological depth, production discipline, and customer loyalty are transitioning from 'price takers' to 'rule co-creators.'"

Soaring lithium prices are also acting as a "catalyst" for technological iteration, driving the battery industry toward diversification. In mid-to-low-end energy storage and light-duty power applications, sodium-ion batteries, leveraging their "lithium-free" advantage, have achieved mass production, becoming an important alternative to LFP batteries.

Compared to lithium batteries, sodium-ion batteries offer stable material costs, as sodium accounts for 2.3% of the Earth's crust, and its extraction cost is only 1/20th that of lithium. The cost of cathode material (copper iron manganese oxide) for sodium-ion batteries is 35% lower than that of LFP, and anode material (hard carbon) cost is 40% lower. Additionally, sodium-ion batteries exhibit excellent low-temperature performance, maintaining over 90% capacity at -20°C, perfectly suiting application scenarios like energy storage in extremely cold regions.

Looking back at 2025, investment enthusiasm in the sodium-ion battery sector already surpassed that in solid-state batteries. According to incomplete industry statistics, 28 announced projects with disclosed investment amounts totaled approximately 61.5 billion yuan. Among these, three projects involved investments over 5 billion yuan, and 18 projects had investments exceeding 1 billion yuan. Southwest and East China emerged as primary hubs, planning capacities of 81 GWh and 78 GWh, respectively.

Entering 2026, sodium-ion batteries have reached the critical stage of "capacity ramp-up and market validation." CATL's sodium-ion batteries have been installed in batches in models from Chery and Jianghuai, and are penetrating the residential energy storage sector. Penghui Energy's sodium-ion battery shipments are steadily increasing in the residential energy storage and portable power market. HiNa Battery, leveraging its GWh-level capacity, is solidifying its technological advantage in regional energy storage projects.

It is noteworthy that solid-state batteries, once highly anticipated for their "lithium-free" potential, actually exhibit increased lithium dependency. Industry data shows that lithium usage in solid-state batteries across different technological pathways significantly exceeds that of LFP batteries: sulfide/oxide solid-state batteries require approximately 850 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) per GWh, 1.5 times that of LFP batteries (567 tons/GWh); semi-solid-state lithium metal batteries use 1,088 tons LCE/GWh, 1.8 times that of LFP; and all-solid-state lithium metal batteries require up to 1,906 tons LCE/GWh, 3.4 times that of LFP.

Regarding commercialization progress, Qingtao Energy achieved trial production for its solid-state battery-specific materials project in July 2025, with a total planned capacity of 65 GWh, and has established deep partnerships with automakers like SAIC and GAC. Weilan New Energy's second-generation semi-solid-state batteries achieved mass production in 2025, with plans for all-solid-state battery small-batch installation in vehicles by 2027.

In contrast, early-stage R&D-focused battery companies face greater fundraising difficulties, as capital increasingly favors projects with mature technology and proven production capabilities, making the industry's "Matthew Effect" more pronounced.

According to industry experts, mass production of solid-state battery technology is expected around 2030. Although its development will further increase lithium resource demand, high lithium prices also provide impetus for the industry to develop and promote technological routes with relatively lower lithium dependency.

Against the backdrop of lithium carbonate prices approaching 150,000 yuan per ton, the new energy industry chain is undergoing unprecedented restructuring. "When the lithium carbonate price curve turns upward, what truly deserves attention is not the increase itself, but who can transform this price surge into sustainable profits and competitiveness in the new cycle," interpreted one capital investment analyst. The fluctuation in lithium carbonate prices is not merely an industry "price war"; it is also an accelerator for the sector's transition from "resource-driven" to "technology-driven." In this process, only those companies possessing genuine technological strength, resource control, and cost advantages can seize the opportunity in the new cycle.