Ukubuyekezwa Kwamabhethri Kagesi ka-2025: Ingxenye Yemakethe ye-LFP Idlula u-80%, Ukuhanjiswa Kwamandla Kwandisa Kabili, Izinkampani Zesigaba Sesibili Zikhula

Ekupheleni konyaka, nakuba idatha ephelele kaDisemba ingakatholakali, umfanekiso jikelele wonyaka wonke usuphumelele, okwenza kube yisikhathi esifanele sokubuyekeza ukuthuthukiswa komkhakha wamabhethri kagesi eminyakeni edlule.

Ukubheka emuva embonini yamabhethri kagesi eChina ngo-2025, kubonisa isithombe esiphikisanayo: nakuba izindlela zobuchwepheshe seziwuhlangano olungakaze lubonwe, lapho i-lithium iron phosphate ithola ingxenye enkulu yemakethe, ukuncintisana sekuye kwaba nezigaba eziningi kakhulu kunakuqala. Izikhundla eziphakeme ze "zimbili eziphezulu" (i-CATL ne-BYD) seziye zancipha kancane, njengoba izinkampani zesigaba sesibili ziqhubeka nokwakha amandla futhi umkhankaso omusha wezinkampani ezivela phansi uvele. Uhlelo oludala luyakhululeka, futhi amandla amasha sevele aqhamuka.

Idatha elandelayo itholakala ku-China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance.

01

Ukukhula Okusheshayo Kwezinga Lezimboni, Ngokukhula Okunye Ngokushesha

Ngaphakathi kukaJanuwari kuya kuNovemba 2025, ukukhiqizwa kwezimoto zamandla nezinye izibhamu eChina kufinyelele ku-1,468.8 GWh, okukhombisa ukukhula konyaka ngo-51.1%. Ukuthengiswa okuqoqiwe kufinyelele ku-1,412.5 GWh, kukhuphuka ngo-54.7% konyaka. Ikhono eliqoqiwe lokufaka lalingama-671.5 GWh, libonisa ukukhula konyaka ngo-42.0%.

Ikakhulu kumabhethri wamandla, amandla afakwe ngenyanga ngoNovemba kulo nyaka afinyelele ku-93.5 GWh (ukwanda kwe-11.2% ngenyanga nangenyanga kanye ne-39.2% ngonyaka), kudlula i-90 GWh okokuqala futhi kubeka irekhodi elisha lesikhathi esidlule. Le mpumelelo ibalulekile, njengoba imakethe yezimoto ezintsha zamandla ibonise izimpawu ezincane zokupholisa, futhi umphumela "wokukhuphuka" wokuphela konyaka ububonakale ungaphakeme uma kuqhathaniswa neminyaka edlule.

Ngokombono wedatha, kokubili ukukhula kokukhiqiza nokuthengisa kuye kwanda kakhulu uma kuqhathaniswa no-2024, kukhombisa ukuthi imboni yamabhethri isaqhubeka nendlela yokukhula okuphezulu. Izinga lokukhula kokufakwa kwamandla lihlala linokuzinza okuthile, kodwa kubalulekile ukuqaphela—izinga lokukhula kwemakethe yezimoto liyancipha, likhombisa ukukhula kokusebenza kwamabhethri aphakathi nendawo ngezimoto ezintsha zamandla.

02

Ishares yeLithium Iron Phosphate iqhubeka nokwenyuka, kanti iTernary Battery Share iyancipha kakhulu.

Kusukela ngoJanuwari kuya kuNovemba konyaka, amandla afakiwe aqoqiwe wamabhethri e-lithium iron phosphate asekhaya afinyelele ku-545.5 GWh, okwenza kube ngu-81.2% wamandla afakiwe aphelele, enokukhula okuqoqiwe konyaka nonyaka okungu-56.7%. Ngonyaka ophelile, amandla afakiwe aqoqiwe wamabhethri e-lithium iron phosphate abe ngu-409.0 GWh, okwenza kube ngu-74.6% wamandla afakiwe aphelele, enokukhula okuqoqiwe konyaka nonyaka okungu-56.7%.

Idatha ikhombisa ukuthi amabhethri e-lithium iron phosphate athuthukise kakhulu ingxenye yawo yemakethe ezimotweni zabagibeli, ezimotweni zokuhweba, nakwezinye izindawo, asebenzisa izinzuzo ezifana nezindleko nokuphepha. Nakuba amabhethri e-ternary esabakhona isidingo kumamodeli ezimoto ezisebenza kahle, ingxenye yabo yemakethe iyaqhubeka nokwehla.

03

Amabhethri Wokugcina Amandla Aba Umshini Omusha Wokuthumela Phesheya

Ukuthunyelwa kwamabhethri ngo-2025 kubonise ukusebenza okumangalisayo, ukukhula kokuthunyelwa jikelele kukhuphukile kakhulu uma kuqhathaniswa nonyaka odlule. Phakathi kwabo, amabhethri ezinhlelo zokugcina amandla abe yinjini eyinhloko yokukhula.

Idatha ikhombisa ukuthi izinga lokukhula kokuthunyelwa kwamabhethri agcina amandla lidlula lokwamabhethri kagesi e-lithium. Kusukela ngoJanuwari kuya kuNovemba, ukuthunyelwa kwezakhiwo zamabhethri kagesi eChina kufinyelele ku-169.8 GWh, okukhombisa ukukhula konyaka ngo-40.6%. Ukuthunyelwa kwezinye izakhiwo zamabhethri kufinyelele ku-90.5 GWh, kukhombisa ukukhula konyaka ngo-51.4%.

Mayelana nesakhiwo sokuthumela, amabhethri amathathu abamba u-58.3% wezokuthunyelwa kwamabhethri wamandla, ikakhulukazi ehlinzeka ngemodeli zemoto ezisezingeni eliphezulu ezikude. Ukuthunyelwa kwamabhethri e-lithium iron phosphate kwazuza ekudingeni kokugcina amandla kanye nezimoto zokuhweba, njengoba imakethe yangaphandle iqhubeka nokwandisa ukukhetha kwabo kwezixazululo ezisebenzayo.

04

Imakethe Share ye "Top Two" Incipha njengoba Izinkampani Zesibili Zikhula

Kusukela kuJanuwari kuya kuNovemba 2025, ukuhlanganiswa kwemakethe yamabhethri wamandla kwaqhubeka nokuba phezulu kodwa kwaba nezinguquko ezincane. Izinkampani eziyi-10 eziphezulu zathatha u-94.2% wezinga lokufaka, kwehla ngo-1.6 amaphesenti uma kuqhathaniswa no-2024.

Phakathi kwezinkampani ezihamba phambili, amandla afakwe i-CATL kusukela ngoJanuwari kuya kuNovemba afike ku-287.68 GWh, okwakha u-42.92% wabelana ngemakethe—ukwehla kwe-2.16 amaphesenti uma kuqhathaniswa nedatha yonyaka ophelele yonyaka odlule. Amandla afakwe i-BYD abekwe ku-148.14 GWh, okwakha u-22.1% wabelana ngemakethe, kwehla ngama-2.89 amaphesenti uma kuqhathaniswa nedatha yonyaka ophelele yonyaka odlule. Uhlelo lokwabelana ngemakethe lwe-"Top Two" lufike ku-65.02%, ukwehla cishe ama-5 amaphesenti ukusuka ku-2024 nokuncipha okukhulu ukusuka phezulu kwe-70% ngo-2023.

Ngokuphambene, izinkampani zesigaba sesibili ezifana neGotion High-tech (umthamo ofakiwe we-37.74 GWh kusukela kuJanuwari kuya kuNovemba, okwakha u-5.63% wabelana ngemakethe—ukwanda kwe-1.2 amaphesenti uma kuqhathaniswa nonyaka odlule) kanye ne-REPT BATTERO (umthamo ofakiwe we-2.98 GWh ngoNovemba, lapho ukwabelana ngemakethe kukhuphuka ngama-0.69 amaphesenti) zikhombise amazinga okukhula akhangayo. Ukuncintisana embonini kuyashintsha kube yisimo sokuthi "abadlali abahola imakethe baphatha imakethe ngenkathi izinkampani zesigaba sesibili ziqhuba phambili."

05

Ukukhula Kokufuna Izimoto Zokuhamba Zokusebenza Kwamandla Amasha Kuphakanyiswa Njengomgibeli Omkhulu Wokukhula Kwekhono Elifakiwe

Kusukela kuJanuwari kuya kuNovemba 2025, isidingo samabhethri kagesi ezimoto zokuhweba ezintsha sikhule kakhulu. Ezingeni lempahla, izinkampani ezifana ne-EVE Energy (enama-GWh angama-16.43 afakwe ezimotweni zokuhweba), i-Gotion High-tech (ama-GWh angama-10.18), kanye ne-REPT BATTERO (ama-GWh angama-7.49) zonke zazuza ekusheshiseni kokuguqulwa kwezimoto zika-electronic ezinzima, amabhasi, nezinye izinhlelo. Ngokwengxenye yezimoto, amandla afakwe ezimotweni zikagesi eziphelele kanye nezimoto ezikhethekile akhokele ukukhula. Ngonyaka ka-2025, izimoto zokuhweba zibe amandla abalulekile akhuthaza ukukhula kwamandla afakwe, zaphula umbono wesidingo owawuholwa yizimoto zabagibeli. Nakuba izimoto zabagibeli zisasele ngaphezu kwama-70% wamandla afakwe kusukela kuJanuwari kuya kuNovemba, ingxenye yezimoto zokuhweba ikhule ngama-3.2 amaphesenti uma kuqhathaniswa no-2024.

06

Ukudinga Izinto Eziyinhloko Kukhuphuka Ngokuvumelana Nokukhula Kokukhiqiza

Ukudinga izinto ezisemqoka kumabhethri kagesi kwanda ngokuhambisana nokukhula kwesikali senkambu.

Ngaphakathi kukaJanuwari kuya kuNovemba 2025, ukukhiqizwa kwezakhi zomsebenzi wezinto ezintathu eChina kufinyelele ku-619,000 amathani, kanti izinto ze-lithium iron phosphate zafinyelela ku-2.902 million amathani. Izinto ze-anode zafinyelela ku-2.054 million amathani, kanti izinto zokuhlukanisa zafinyelela ku-29.34 billion square meters. I-electrolyte yezinto ezintathu zafinyelela ku-275,000 amathani, kanti i-electrolyte yezinto ze-lithium iron phosphate yafinyelela ku-1.741 million amathani.

Ngokuphambene, ngo-2024, ukukhiqizwa kwezakhi ze-ternary eChina kwezokusebenza namabhethri amanye kwakungu-490,000 amathani, kanti izakhi ze-lithium iron phosphate zazingu-1.934 million amathani. Izinto ze-anode zafinyelela ku-1.27 million amathani, kanti izinto zokuhlukanisa zafinyelela ku-16.42 billion square meters. I-electrolyte ye-batteries ze-ternary yafinyelela ku-225,000 amathani, kanti i-electrolyte ye-batteries ze-lithium iron phosphate yafinyelela ku-1.061 million amathani.

07

Ikhono leBhethri ngalinye leMoto Likhula Ngokuqhubekayo, Ubuchwepheshe Buvumelana Nezidingo Zomkhiqizo

Kusukela kuJanuwari kuya kuNovemba 2025, amandla averajwe ebhethri ngalinye lemoto ye-energi entsha aqhubekile nokukhula. Emkhakheni wemoto ye-pure electric, amamodeli anebhethri avela ezinkampanini ezifana ne-CATL ne-BYD ngokuvamile adlula u-50 kWh, kanti amamodeli aphezulu athile adlula u-70 kWh. Lokhu kumela ukwanda okungaba ngu-8% uma kuqhathaniswa namandla averajwe ngo-2024 kanye no-15% uma kuqhathaniswa no-2023.

Ngaleso sikhathi, ngokusebenzisa ukuthuthukiswa kwezobuchwepheshe njengokufaka i-cathode kanye nokuthuthukiswa kwe-electrolyte, amabhethri e-lithium iron phosphate aqhubekile nokweqa emkhakheni we-energ density kanye nokusebenza kwezinga lokushisa eliphansi, ahambisana nezinhlelo eziningi zokusebenza kusukela ezimotweni zabagibeli ze-A0-class kuya ezimotweni ezinzima. Lokhu akuhlangabezani kuphela nezidingo zokunciphisa izindleko zabakhiqizi bezimoto kodwa futhi kuhambisana nezilindelo zabathengi zokuhamba isikhathi eside.

08

Ukwehlukaniswa Kwezindlela Zobuchwepheshe, Izinhlobo ZamaBhathri Ezintsha Ziqala Ukuthuthukiswa

Ngo-2025, nakuba "eminye izinhlobo" zamabhethri (njengama-sodium-ion namabhethri e-solid-state) zisabamba ingxenye encane yokukhiqiza nentengiso (cishe u-0.1–0.3%), izinga lazo lokukhula ngenyanga livame ukudlula u-100%, kukhombisa ukuthi izindlela ezintsha zobuchwepheshe zidlula ezivivinyweni zezimboni ezincane.

09

Imakethe Zangaphandle Ziba Umgibeli Obalulekile Wokukhula

Imaketheke zezimakethe zamazwe omhlaba zikhule ngokushesha. Imizamo yezinkampani zamabhethri zaseShayina yokwakha imboni phesheya (njengokwakhiwa kwe-CATL eYurophu kanye ne-Gotion High-tech eMelika) seziqale ukuveza imiphumela. Kusukela ngoJanuwari kuya kuNovemba, ukuthengiswa kwamabhethri kagesi kwaba ngu-18.4% wezokuthengisa jikelele, kukhuphuke ngamaphesenti angu-1.2 uma kuqhathaniswa no-2024 kanye namaphesenti angu-4.5 uma kuqhathaniswa no-2023. Imakethe zamazwe omhlaba seziye zaba umgqugquzeli obalulekile wokukhula. Uma kuqhathaniswa nesigaba sika-2023–2024 esikhokhelwa ukuthengiswa kwemikhiqizo, u-2025 ubeka isigaba esisha sokuhweba emhlabeni esihlonza "ukukhiqizwa kwendawo kanye nokuthengiswa kobuchwepheshe."

10

Umthetho Uqhuba Isidingo Futhi Ujolise Ekukhiqizeni

Kusukela kuJanuwari kuya kuNovemba 2025, ukuthuthukiswa komkhakha kuzuze kokubili ekusekeleni kwezepolitiki zendawo, njengezinhlelo zokukhuthaza izimoto ezintsha zamandla kanye nezinsiza zokufaka ugesi ezimotweni zokuhweba, kanye nasekuphumeleleni ekwandiseni emhlabeni jikelele. Emkhakheni wezepolitiki, ukwesekwa kuk gouvernement ezindaweni ezifana nokufakwa kukagesi ezimotweni zokuhweba kanye neziteshi zamandla zokugcina amandla kulethe amathuba amasha okukhula kwesidingo samabhethri. Ukuphathwa kwemikhondo ye-carbon kanye nokubhekana nezithiyo zokuhweba eziluhlaza sekuvele kube izindawo ezibalulekile, kushayela izinkampani ukuba zisebenzise kahle izinqubo zazo zokukhiqiza.