Ngokuphela kukaNovemba, iLongpan Technology (HK: 02465) yasayina isivumelwano esengeziwe neChuna New Energy, esibekele phansi ukuthengwa kwezinto ezingu-1.3 million tonnes ze-cathode kusukela ngo-2025 kuya ku-2030. Ngokusekelwe entengo yemakethe ngaleso sikhathi, inani eliphelele lesivumelwano lilindeleke ukuthi lifinyelele ku-RMB 45 billion. Lokhu kulandela isivumelwano se-RMB 47 billion esisayiniwe phakathi kweCATL (SZ: 300750) neWanrun New Energy (SH: 688275) ekuqaleni kukaMeyi, okukhombisa enye inkontileka enkulu ethumele imijikelo emikhulu emkhakheni wonke.

I-Huaxia Energy Network ibone ukuthi izivumelwano ezinkulu embonini ye-lithium battery zikhule kakhulu kusukela ekuqaleni konyaka. Abanye abaphakeli be-lithium battery abakhulu njenge-EVE Energy (SZ: 300014), Guoxuan High-Tech (SZ: 002074), kanye ne-CALB (HK: 03931) baveze ngokulandelana izivumelwano ezinkulu zokuthenga ezihlanganisa izingxenye ezibalulekile ezifana ne-lithium iron phosphate, izinto zokwakha ezinhle nezimbi, i-electrolyte, i-copper foil, kanye nezihlungi. Lezi zimo zivame ukufinyelela ezigidini noma ngisho nezinkulungwane zezimali, nezimo zezimali ngokuvamile zihlala phakathi kweminyaka engu-3 kuya kwengu-5.

Imakethe ephansi ibonile futhi ukuvela kwezinkontileka eziningi ezibiza amabhiliyoni. Ngokwesibonelo, ngoNovemba, i-HyperStrong Energy (SH: 688411) yasayina isivumelwano sokubambisana esiyisicwangciso seminyaka eyi-10 ne-CATL, ngaphansi kwalokho, inani lokuthengwa kuphela kusukela ngo-2026 kuya ku-2028 ngeke lidlule ku-200 GWh. NgoDisemba, i-Hithium Energy Storage yasayina isivumelwano sokubambisana ne-CRRC Zhuzhou Institute, ibophezeleke ukuhlinzeka okungaphansi kuka-120 GWh kwemikhiqizo yokugcina amandla phakathi nesikhathi se-"15th Five-Year Plan".

Kusukela ekuqaleni konyaka, ngenxa yokukhula kwemakethe, umkhakha wamabhethri e-lithium ubuyela esigabeni se"ukusetshenziswa okuphezulu kwamandla, isidingo esiqinile, kanye nezilindelo eziphezulu", okuholele ekuphuthumeni kokuhlinzeka kulo mkhakha. Lokhu kuholele ekwenzeni izivumelwano zesikhathi eside ezinzima kakhulu kunanini ngaphambili. Ngenkathi lokhu kusiza kokubili izinhlangothi zokuhlinzeka nezidingo ukuzinza kokuhlinzeka nokunciphisa umthelela wezinguquko zemakethe, futhi kube sekuvele umkhankaso ophuthumayo wokwandisa amandla.

Ngemuva kokuphuma esikhathini sokulungiswa esedlule, umkhakha wokugcina amandla ubuye ube nesiphithiphithi. Abaphakathi komkhakha bakhathazekile ukuthi kulandela ukukhuphuka kwezivumelwano zesikhathi eside, ingabe lo mkhakha uzowela emgodleni wokweqisa amandla, njengokwenziwa umkhakha we-photovoltaic (PV) eminyakeni embalwa edlule, lapho usaqhubeka nokubhekana nezinkinga zokubuyela emuva?

Ngemuva kwalokhu kuhlanganyela kwezinkontileka zesikhathi eside kukhona ukukhula okukhulu kwemakethe yokugcina amandla kanye nezimoto ezintsha zamandla (NEV) kulo nyaka.

Ngokukhuthazwa kokuxhaswa okuqondile kweziteshi zamandla ezintsha zendawo, ukwanda kwesidingo samandla amasha kwamanye amazwe, kanye nesidingo sokugcina amandla esikhulayo esilethwe ukwakhiwa kwe-infrastructure ye-AI eMelika, imakethe yokugcina amandla ibhekene nokuchuma okungakaze kubonwe. Ngokusho kwedatha evela kuMnyango Wezokuphakelwa Kwamandla kanye nezikhungo zangaphandle, ukufakwa kwezinsiza zokugcina amandla ze-lithium emhlabeni jikelele kufinyelele ku-170 GWh ezinyangeni ezintathu zokuqala zonyaka ka-2025, okukhuphukile ngonyaka ngo-68%. Kulokhu, ukufakwa okuxhunywe muva nje kwendawo kufinyelele ku-82 GWh, kukhuphuke ngo-61% ngonyaka, kanti ukugcina amandla kwamanye amazwe kufinyelele ku-94 GWh, okukhuphukile ngo-74% ngonyaka.

Emkhakheni wamabhethri kagesi, isidingo sikhule kakhulu ngokuhambisana nokukhula kwezokuthengisa kwe-NEV. Ngokwezibalo ezivela ku-SNE Research yaseNingizimu Korea, ivolumu yokulayisha amabhethri kagesi emhlabeni jikelele ifike ku-811.7 GWh ezinyangeni ezintathu zokuqala zonyaka, okukhuphuke ngo-34.7% uma kuqhathaniswa no-602 GWh ngesikhathi esifanayo ngonyaka odlule.

Isidingo esikhulu esiphuma phansi sithinte izigaba eziphakathi nendawo nezingeni eliphezulu, kuholele ekusebenzeni okuphelele kwamandla kanye nemisebenzi yokukhiqiza ebanzi kuyo yonke imikhakha yeziqu zemboni.

"Ngokwesiko, uDisemba uyisikhathi sokuphumula embonini, kodwa kulonyaka, kulindeleke ukuthi ukuhlela ukukhiqizwa kwamabhethri wokugcina amandla kuzofinyelela ukukhula okuphindwe kabili ngenyanga ngoDisemba," kusho umgibeli embonini kwi-Huaxia Energy Network. Idatha yomphakathi ikhombisa ukuthi kusukela kwikota yesithathu, izinga lokusebenzisa amandla kwe-CATL lidlulelwa ku-90%. I-EVE Energy iphinde yasho ukuthi ama-oda ayo wamabhethri wokugcina amandla aqinile futhi inkampani isebenza ngempela. I-Hithium Energy Storage igcine ukukhiqizwa okuphelele ezisekelweni zayo e-Xiamen nase-Chongqing kusukela ngoMashi walonyaka.

I-REPT BATTERO (HK: 00666) ibike ukuthi izinga lokusebenzisa amandla kwayo lihlale liphezulu kuka-90% kusukela esikhathini sesibili, ngisho nokufinyelela ku-100% ngoJulayi. I-Longking Environmental Protection (SH: 600388) ibonise ukuthi ukuhlinzekwa kwayo kwezikhala zokugcina amandla kuhlelwe kuze kube nguJuni 2026.

Ngakolunye uhlangothi lwezinto eziphezulu, amandla okukhishwa kwe-lithium hexafluorophosphate (LiPF₆) eTianci Materials (SZ: 002709), kanye namandla okukhishwa kwe-lithium iron phosphate (LFP) eHunan Yuneng (SZ: 301358) naseAnda Technology konke kusebenziswe ngokuphelele, kanti abanye baveza nomphumela wokuthi "umugqa wokukhiqiza ukhetha ama-oda". IShanshan Co., Ltd. (SH: 600884), umkhiqizi ophambili wezinto eziphikisanayo, kudingeke ukuthi ithumele ezinye zezimfuno zayo kumakhasimende angaphandle ukuze ihlangabezane nezidingo zokuhlinzeka.

Ulwazi lomphakathi lukhombisa ukuthi izinga lokusetshenziswa kwamakhasi okugcina amandla emhlabeni jikelele lifinyelele ku-86% ngo-2025, lidlula kakhulu izinga le-65% ngo-2024.

Ngemuva kokuthi ukusetshenziswa kwamandla kube phezulu, isidingo esiqinile semikhiqizo eluhlaza ezinkampanini sikhuthaze ukwenyuka kwamanani kuyo yonke imikhakha.

I-Network ye-Huaxia Energy ibone ukuthi muva nje, amanani akhuphukile ezigabeni eziningi kufaka phakathi i-lithium carbonate, i-electrolytic cobalt, i-lithium hydroxide, i-lithium hexafluorophosphate, i-lithium iron phosphate, ama-separators enziwa ngamanzi, i-electrolyte, kanye nezinto zokwakha ezimbi. Phakathi kwalokhu, ngomhla kaDisemba 10, intengo ejwayelekile ye-lithium carbonate ye-battery-grade ibimaphakathi ku-RMB 96,230 nge-ton, ikhuphuke ngo-31.80% ezinyangeni ezimbili. Intengo ye-lithium hexafluorophosphate, okuyinto eyinhloko ye-electrolyte, ikhuphuke ngaphezu kuka-260% cishe ezinyangeni ezinhlanu, lapho intengo ejwayelekile idlula i-RMB 180,000 nge-ton.

Kulesi simo, amabhizinisi ahamba phambili, ahlose ukunciphisa izindleko zokukhiqiza nokwenza uqinisekiso lokuphepha komjikelezo wokuhlinzeka, asevele "avumile uku-oda" nabahlinzeki abaphezulu, okwenza ukuvela njalo kwezinkontileka ezinkulu kube umphumela wemvelo.

Umphathi wezokuthengisa enkampanini ethenga amabhethri uthethelele ezinkundleni, "Okwamanje, noma sikhokha imali ephelele ngaphambi kwesikhathi, singakwazi ukuthatha kuphela ama-cell amabhethri ngoMashi wonyaka ozayo."

Umuntu ophatha enye inkampani yokugcina amandla uthe, "Ukuntuleka kwe-'cell' akukhona udaba lokungabi khona kokwanele kokuhlinzekwa, kodwa kunokungahambisani kwesakhiwo. Ukuntuleka kokuhlinzekwa kugxile kuma-cell anamandla amakhulu, njengezikhala ezijwayelekile ze-314Ah."

Abahlinzeki bezinto eziphezulu nabo babhekene nezinselelo zokulethwa. Umphathi wenkampani ehamba phambili yokukhiqiza ama-foil e-copper we-lithium uthe amandla okukhishwa kwenkampani "awanele, okuholela ekucindezelweni okukhulu kokulethwa."

"Izinga le-oda lamanje empeleni lidlule umthamo ophakeme wokukhiqiza wezinkampani," kusho umhlaziyi ophathelene nezinsiza zikagesi kanye nomkhakha wamandla amasha enkampanini yezokuphepha. Ukuze kuhlangatshezwane nezidingo ze-oda zesikhathi eside, umkhakha wezokugcina amandla uqala umjikelezo omusha wokwandisa amandla.

I-Huaxia Energy Network ibone ukuthi le ngwave yokwandisa amandla igxile kakhulu ezinkampanini ezihamba phambili emkhakheni ngamunye. Isibonelo, i-CATL imemezele amaphrojekthi amaningi amasha wokwandisa amandla e-Fujian, Shandong, Henan, nezinye izifunda kulo nyaka, ngokukhiqiza okusha okukhuluma ngaphezu kuka-70 GWh, kanye ne-16 GWh eyengeziwe yokwakha uhlelo lwezinhlelo zamabhethri eyengeziwe engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka.

Guoxuan High-Tech ihlele ukuphela kwe-40 GWh yokukhiqiza ibhethri ye-lithium kanye nekhono le-bhethri lamandla eNanjing naseWuhu, kanti futhi ihlele i-20 GWh ye-bhethri lamandla eSlovakia naseMorocco. Ngaphezu kwalokho, abaholi abaningana be-lithium battery okubalwa kuzo i-CALB, i-EVE Energy, kanye ne-Sunwoda Electronics (SZ: 300207) baveze ngokusobala izinhlelo zabo zokwandisa ikhono. Phakathi kwabo, i-Chuna New Energy ne-CALB ngayinye inekhono lokukhiqiza elisha eliphakeme njenge-150 GWh. Ngomhla ziyi-18 kuJuni, iphrojekthi ye-lithium battery ye-CALB ephezulu yathatha isinyathelo eChangzhou.

Ngokwezinombolo ezingaphelele ezivela ku-Huaxia Energy Network, umthamo ophelele wokukhiqiza okusha wezinkampani zebhethri kule ngxenye udlula i-510 GWh, kuhilela ukuphumela kwezimali okuphelele kwe-RMB 176.2 billion.

Ngaphandle kwabakhi bebhethri, izinkampani ezihamba phambili emkhakheni wezinto eziphakathi nendawo nezokwakha ziqalile futhi imizamo yokwandisa umthamo, njengokuthi i-Pulead Technology Industry (SH: 603659), umholi ophindwe kabili ezindaweni zokusebenza eziphikisanayo nezihlukanisi ezibhalwe; i-Shangtai Technology (SZ: 001301), umkhiqizi ophambili wezinto zokusebenza eziphikisanayo; kanye ne-Fullshare Precision Industry (SZ: 300432), umholi ophakanyisiwe ophakanyisiwe ophakanyisiwe wezobuchwepheshe obuphezulu be-lithium iron phosphate.

Ngokwezinombolo ezivela ku-GGII (Gao Gong Industry Research Institute), kusukela kuJanuwari kuya ku-Agasti kulo nyaka, inani lephrojekthi ezisayinwe futhi eziqale ukwandisa umthamo emkhakheni we-lithium battery eChina lifinyelele ku-183, ngokuhlanganiswa kwezimali okungama-RMB angama-400 billion.

Lezi zibalo zikhuluma kuphela ngedatha kuze kube nguAgasti, futhi ukwandiswa kwamandla sekukhululekile kakhulu esikhathini sesine. Esikhathini sokuqala salonyaka, imboni yokugcina amandla ibisebuhlungu bokuhlangana kokweqile kwamandla; manje, umkhondo ushintshe waba yisixuku sokwandisa amandla. Izinqubomgomo ezingenakubalwa zemboni zikhuthaze ukukhathazeka okujulile phakathi kwabahloli abaningi abaqondile.

Okwamanje, izinkampani ezihamba phambili embonini yeLithium Battery ngokuvamile zibheka ikusasa ngeso elijabulisayo.

Isibonelo, uHe Jiayan, uMphakathi Osenza Imisebenzi yeGanfeng Lithium Industry (SZ: 002460), usanda kukhuluma ukuthi imboni ye-lithium ingene esikhathini sokukhula. UBu Xiangnan, uMphakathi Osenza Imisebenzi yeChuna New Energy, uphinde wakhuluma, "Imboni izobona enye ukukhula okungu-35% kuya ku-40% ngonyaka ozayo, okukhombisa ukuthunyelwa okungu-800 GWh kuya ku-900 GWh."

Abahlaziyi eBernstein babhale embikweni, "Lo nyaka ubeka umkhakha wezokuthengisa ezingeni eliphansi, futhi silindele ukuthi umkhakha we-lithium uzohlala uqinile kusukela ngo-2026 kuya ku-2027." Ezinye izinkampani ziphinde zaphawula ukuthi umjikelezo wezokugcina amandla ungase ubone ukwanda kwentengo ngo-2026.

Nokho, umgibeli ophakeme embonini utshele iHuaxia Energy Network ukuthi kune "amanzi" amaningi kudatha yokwandiswa kwamandla embonini yamanje. Uthe, "Ukwandiswa kwamandla okwamanje kugxile kakhulu ekutholeni ama-oda nasekuqiniseni ingxenye yemakethe. Othola amandla okukhishwa amaningi uzokwazi ukuthola ama-oda amaningi."

Ngokuqinisekile, phambi kwalesi sikhathi sokukhula okukhulu, abadlali embonini yokugcina amandla babhekene nemizwa ehlukeneyo. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, sekuvele baphume esikhathini esinzima, abathuthukisi bokugcina amandla bahlonipha kakhulu lesi sikhathi esiphumelelayo; ngakolunye uhlangothi, akekho ofuna ukuphuthelwa ama-oda ngenxa yokungabi nakho okwanele, kodwa ukwandiswa kwamandla ngendlela yokuphuthuma kuzoholela ekwandeni okungaphezu kokwanele.

Kubalulekile ukuqaphela ukuthi ababambiqhaza kule ngwave yokwandiswa kwamandla baphakathi kwezinkampani ezihamba phambili embonini. Lokhu kungase kubonise ukuthi nakuba imboni ingene esikhathini sokukhula okuphezulu, ukuhlukaniswa kwemakethe nokuhlelwa kabusha kuseqhubeka, futhi izingozi ezifihlekile zihlala zikhona emkhakheni wokugcina amandla. Ukwanda kwamandla okweqile kuzokwehlisa ngokushesha isikhathi sokukhula okuphezulu, kushiye izinkampani ezinkulu, ezinezimali ezinhle, nezisheshayo ziwumholi emakethe, kanti izinkampani ezincane nezaphakathi zizoshiywa zinganawo lutho.

Bheka indlela edlule eyathathwa imboni ye-PV eseduze, ukwandiswa okukhulu kwamandla okuhamba phambili okuholelwa yimpumelelo ye-oda kuyinto edinga ukuqaphela kakhulu. Izinkampani zake zakholelwa ukuthi ukubamba ama-oda kuveza ukwandiswa kwamandla okuzethembe, kodwa lapho imboni ipholile, lawa ma-oda aguquka abe "iphepha elingenamsebenzi."

Ngemuva kokumemezela "izinhloso ezimbili ze-carbon" zikaChina ngo-2020, umkhakha we-PV uqale isikhathi sokukhula okukhulu, waba ngomunye wemikhakha enenzuzo kakhulu ezweni. Izinkontileka ezinkulu zesikhathi eside ezibiza amabhiliyoni amaningi noma ngisho namabhiliyoni amaningi e-yuan zavele zalandela, kulandela umkhankaso wokwandisa amandla emkhakheni wonke.

Kodwa, ngemuva kwesigaba sesibili sika-2023, umkhakha we-PV wehlelwa yinqaba ngenxa yokweqile kokukhiqiza. Kuze kube namuhla, umkhakha ubhekene nezinkinga ezinzima isikhathi esingaphezu kweminyaka emibili, kodwa kusenokungabikho kwezimpawu zokuhlanganiswa kokukhiqiza okweqile noma ukuvuselelwa kwemakethe. Cishe zonke izinkampani ezihamba phambili ziveze ukulahlekelwa okuqhubekayo kwezinyanga ezine, futhi umkhakha wonke ubhekene nokwehla okukhulu nokulahlekelwa okukhulu.

Ngokuphela kukaJuni konyaka, izikweletu eziphelele zama-PV amabhizinisi angama-140 abhaliswe zafinyelela ku-RMB 2.32 trillion, ngokubheka isilinganiso sokuhlanganiswa kwezimpahla nezikweletu esingu-63.20%. Uma kuhlanganiswa nezinkampani ze-PV ezingabhaliswanga, izinkampani ezilindele ukuhweba, kanye nenani elikhulu labangeneleli bezimboni ezahlukene, izikweletu eziphelele zomkhakha we-PV zingase zidlule ku-RMB 3 trillion. Kulabo ababhizinisi abasheshayo ukwandisa amandla ngaleso sikhathi, kokubili ukwandiswa kwabo okwakuphazamisayo, nokubolekwa kwabo kube nzima kakhulu namuhla.

Izifundo ezibuhlungu nezijulile ezivela embonini ye-PV zisekhona emqondweni. Imboni yokugcina amandla kumele igweme ngokuphelele ukuphinda lezo ziphazamiso. Kuphela ngokushiya umqondo wokuncintisana ngamandla nokwamukela indlela yokuthuthukiswa ehlukile, ephezulu, izinkampani zingaphila kahle futhi zihlala ziqhubeka, futhi zithole izinzuzo zokukhula okuqinile kwemakethe yokugcina amandla.