Izintengo Zebhethri Le-Lithium Ziyangena Esiteshini Sokukhuphuka: Ukulinganisela Komjikelezo Wezimboni kanye Nengqikithi Yenani

Ngemuva kweminyaka yomjikelezo wokwehla embonini yonkana, intengo ye-lithium iron phosphate ibilokhu ikhuphuka njalo izinyanga eziyisithupha kusukela ngoJuni 2025. Idatha evela eShanghai Steelhome (25.720, +0.60, +2.39%) ibonisa ukuthi kusukela maphakathi noDisemba 2025, intengo enkulu yemakethe ye-lithium iron phosphate yamandla ibinyukele ku-RMB 41,200 ngelitha, okuyikhuphuka cishe okungu-30% phakathi nonyaka.

 

Lokhu kukhushwa kwentengo akuyona into eyenzeka yodwa. Igagasi lokukhuphuka kwentengo elishukunyiswa izindleko, elisuka ezintweni zekhathode kuya ezinsaleni zelithium, liyayiguqula indawo yonkana yomkhakha webhethri le-lithium. Kushukunyiswa izimo ezinhle zezindleko, uchungechunge lwezimboni zamandla amasha ludlula esigabeni sokuzilungisa, nezingxoxo ezisegcebeni elincane njengamabhethri amakhulu ayindilinga zikhawuleza ukubeka phambili ukuze zizuze kuleli threndi.

 

 

Abahlaziyi baphawula ukuthi ukukhuphuka kwamanje kwentengo ye-lithium iron phosphate kuwumphumela ongagwemeki wokulinganisela okujulile kokunikezwa nokufunwa kulandela iminyaka emithathu yokuwohloka komkhakha. Ngokuyisisekelo, kusekelwa abashayeli ababili bokufunwa bokwanda okufanayo kwezimoto ezintsha zamandla (ama-NEV) nemikhakha yokugcina amandla, okunciphisa kancane kancane izingcindezi eziqoqekile kulo lonke umkhakha.

 

Kusukela ekupheleni kuka-2022 kuya ku-Agasti 2025, intengo yezinto ze-lithium iron phosphate yehle ngaphezu kuka-80%, ibeka izingcindezi ezinkulu zenzuzo kulo lonke umkhakha.

 

Ukuphuma komkhakha kwenzeka ngoJuni 2025. Njengoba amanani ezinto zokusetshenziswa ezisezingeni eliphezulu ekhuphuka futhi isidingo sezinto ezisezingeni eliphansi siqhubeka nokululama, ukukhuphuka kwamanani kwaba ukukhetha okungaphekwanga kwezinkampani ukuze ziqhubeke nokusebenza ngokujwayelekile. Muva nje, izinkampani eziningana ezihamba phambili zamandla amasha okubalwa kuzo i-EVE Energy (68.970, +3.21, +4.88%) (ukuvikela amalungelo), i-Chuangming New Energy, i-BAK Battery, ne-Tianneng Group zikhiphe ngokulandelana izaziso zokushintsha amanani, okulindeleke ukuthi ziqhubekisele phambili umjikelezo omusha wokukhula kokusebenza kwabadlali bomkhakha.

 

Ngaphansi kwentengo ephakeme yezinto zokusetshenziswa eziluhlaza kukhona ukwesekwa okuqinile okuvela ekukhuleni okungcono kunokulindelekile kwesidingo semakethe esiphansi - umshayeli oyinhloko walokhu kukhula kwentengo ye-lithium iron phosphate, okuvela emikhakheni emibili eyinhloko ye-NEVs nokugcinwa kwamandla.

 

Uma kuqhathaniswa namabhethri e-lead-acid, amabhethri e-lithium iron phosphate anikeza izinzuzo ezicacile ekusebenzeni, ukonga izindleko, kanye nokuba nobungani nemvelo. Manje asebe yindlela eyinhloko yobuchwepheshe ku-NEVs, izinhlelo zamandla ezilula, kanye nezinhlelo zokugcina amandla, anokungashintshwa kalula. Ngokusebenza kwezindinganiso ezintsha zikazwelonke ezibeka izidingo eziphakeme, isikhala semakethe esizayo samabhethri e-lithium iron phosphate sizokwanda kakhulu.

 

Emkhakheni wamabhethri amandla, i-lithium iron phosphate isikhathé isikhathi eside yenza indawo yayo eyinhloko. Kusukela ngoJanuwari kuya kuNovemba 2025, ukuthengiswa kwamabhethri amandla e-lithium iron phosphate e-China kwenyuke kakhulu ngo-66.9% unyaka nonyaka, kanti isabelo sabo emakethe sikhuphuke saya ku-72.8%. Lo mfutho wokukhula uhambisana kakhulu nokusebenza kahle kwemakethe ye-NEV—ngesikhathi esifanayo, ukukhiqizwa nokuthengiswa kwe-NEV ezindaweni zasekhaya kokubili kwadlula u-31% unyaka nonyaka, okuqondise ukudala ukwanda kwesidingo samabhethri amandla.

Ukukhula kwesidingo emakethe yokugcina amandla kube namandla nakakhulu, kuvele njengomunye umshini obalulekile ohambisa isidingo se-lithium iron phosphate. I-GGII (Gaogong Industry Research Institute) ibikezela ukuthi umthamo wokuthunyelwa kwamabhethri e-lithium okugcina amandla e-China uzokwanda ngaphezu kuka-75% ngo-2025. Okubalulekile ukuthi, cishe u-100% wamabhethri okugcina amandla asebenzisa indlela yobuchwepheshe ye-lithium iron phosphate, kudala ukudonswa okuqondile kakhulu kwesidingo sezinto ezingaphambili. Imininingwane evela ezinhlanganweni ezifanele zemboni ibonisa ukuthi izinto ze-lithium iron phosphate zenza u-99.9% womkhakha wamabhethri okugcina amandla, kuqinisa indima yazo njengesisekelo sezinto ezibalulekile ekwakhiweni kwezinhlelo zamandla ezintsha.

 

Ukululama okuqhubekayo emintengweni kuhlanganisa izimboni zamabhethri ezisezingeni eliphezulu nezokugcina ukuba zihambe kancane kancane kuncintiswano olubucayi lwentengo ephansi futhi zingene esigabeni esisha sokuthuthukiswa esigxile ekudaleni inani.

 

Imizamo yokubambisana embonini yonkana ukuze kuphulwe isithintelo iye yaqala phambili. NgoNovemba 2025, abamele izinkampani ezikhulu ezisikhombisa zasekhaya ezikhiqiza i-lithium iron phosphate bahlangana eBeijing ukuzoxoxa ngesiqondiso sokuthuthukiswa kwemboni esikhathini esizayo. Emhlanganweni, i-China Chemical and Physical Power Industry Association yagqugquzela ngokusobala ukwakhiwa kabusha kwengqiqo yokubeka amanani embonini ngokusekelwe ezinkomba zezindleko njengesethenjwa esiyinhloko, ukugwema ngokuphelele ukuncintisana okubi nokubeka isisekelo esiqinile sokuthuthukiswa okunempilo kwemboni.

 

Lo mkhombandlela wokuhola usuvele uguquke waba izimpawu ezinhle ezingeni lokusebenza kwamabhizinisi. Abahlaziyi bemboni ngokuvamile bakholelwa ukuthi izinzuzo zale ngxenye yokululama komkhakha zizogxila kakhulu kumabhizinisi ahamba phambili anezinzuzo zobuchwepheshe, amakhono okulawula izindleko, kanye nezinsiza zamakhasimende ezisezingeni eliphezulu.

 

Phakathi kwesidingo esikhulu esiphindwe kabili esivela emikhakheni yezimoto kanye nokugcinwa kwamandla, izinhlelo zebhethri ezincane nezimaphakathi nazo ziyagcina isivinini. Izinhlelo zamandla ezilula, ukugcinwa kwamandla okuphathwayo, nokugcinwa kwamandla ezindlini zethula umjikelezo omusha wokukhula okuphindaphindayo. Thatha i-Chuangming New Energy, umkhiqizi webhethri ongumakadebona kanye nomdlali ohamba phambili emkhakheni webhethri eliyindilinga, njengesibonelo. Muva nje, le nkampani ikhiphe isaziso somphakathi mayelana nokushintsha kwamanani amabhethri amakhulu ayindilinga e-lithium iron phosphate, icacisa ukuthi izonyusa amanani emikhiqizweni yayo yonke yebhethri kusukela ngoDisemba 1, 2025. Lokhu kushintsha kwamanani kusekelwa ukuphumelela okuqhubekayo komthamo wokukhiqiza kanye nama-oda—isisekelo sokukhiqiza saseMianyang sigcine izinga eliphezulu lokusetshenziswa komthamo isikhathi eside, nomkhiqizo waso oyinhloko, ibhethri elikhulu eliyindilinga le-lithium iron phosphate elingu-32140, liqede ukukhiqiza nokuthengisa ngokugcwele. Ngokusho kochwepheshe bemboni abasondelene nesitshalo, ama-oda amanje amaningi kakhulu, imisebenzi yezokuthutha iyaphithizela, futhi ukusebenza kahle kwe-automation komugqa wokukhiqiza kungaphakathi kwezinga eliphezulu lemboni. Le mininingwane ibonisa ngqo isidingo esinamandla emakethe samabhethri amakhulu ayindilinga.

 

Phakathi kokuncintisana phakathi kwezindlela ezahlukene zobuchwepheshe bebhethri, ukunakwa kwemakethe kumabhethri amakhulu ayindilinga kuye kwaqhubeka nokwanda. Idatha yomkhakha ibonisa ukuthi isidingo somhlaba wonke samabhethri amakhulu ayindilinga sidlule umkhawulo we-100 GWh ngo-2025. Ngokuhlanganiswa nokukhula okuqhubekayo kwezinhlelo zamandla ezincane naphakathi, amabhethri amakhulu ayindilinga alindele ukuba ajabulele isikhala esikhulu sokukhula eminyakeni ezayo, avele njengamandla abalulekile okukhula kwekhwalithi ephezulu komkhakha webhethri.

 

Ubhekene nezindleko zezinto ezikhuphukayo kanye nesidingo semakethe esihlakazekile, amabhizinisi anokuqoqwa kobuchwepheshe okuqinile ayakha ukuncintisana kwawo ngokusebenzisa ukuphindwa komkhiqizo nokubekwa emakethe.

 

Ngokuthatha iChuangming New Energy njengesibonelo, ibhethri layo elikhulu eliyindilinga elingu-32140 le-lithium iron phosphate elinamaloli amaningi ligxile ekubeni nenani elihle, kuyilapho linikeza ukuhlakazeka okufanayo kokushisa nokuphepha okuphezulu. Ibhethri lingasebenza ngokuqinile ebangeni lokushisa eliphezulu lika-60℃, okwenza libe lufanele kakhulu izimakethe zamandla ezilula kanye nezokugcina amandla ezindlini eNingizimu-mpumalanga Asia kanye nezifunda ezishisayo. Leli khono lobuchwepheshe liguquke ngqo kube ukuncintisana emakethe. Imikhiqizo yenkampani ithunyelwe ngobuningi ezimakethe ezifana neMiddle East, Europe, kanye neNdiya, okuyibeka phakathi kwabaphambili embonini emncintiswaneni wangaphandle.

 

Njengamanje, uchungechunge lwebhizinisi lamabhethri lusesikhathini sokuguquka okuphindwe kabili okuboniswa ukulungiswa kwesakhiwo kanye nokubuyekezwa kobuchwepheshe. Ngaphandle kwamabhethri amakhulu ayindilinga, izindlela eziningi zobuchwepheshe ezifaka phakathi amabhethri ayi-semi-solid-state, i-all-solid-state kanye ne-sodium-ion nazo ziyaqhubeka ngokuhambisana futhi zithola izimpumelelo ezisheshayo.

Ngezigubhu ezinkulu zesilinda, naphezu kwezinkinga eziyinhloko ezisazobhekana nazo njengokusebenza kahle kokukhiqiza nokungaguquguquki komkhiqizo, ziye zandisa izimo zazo zokusebenzisa ngenxa yezinzuzo zazo ezihlukile ekuminyeni kwamandla nasekuqinekeni kwesakhiwo. Lezi zigubhu ziye zangena kakhulu ezimotweni zikagesi eziphezulu, ukugcinwa kwamandla ezindlini, ukugcinwa kwamandla okuphathwayo nezinye izindawo, futhi ziye zavela nasemikhakheni esakhula njenge-eVTOL. Ngokuqhubeka kokuqhubeka kokuphakanyiswa kohlelo lwezinto kanye nokuthuthukiswa kwenqubo yokukhiqiza, izigubhu ezinkulu zesilinda kulindeleke ukuthi zivuleke kakhudlwana amandla emakethe azo ezimotweni ezilula, izinhlelo zokugcina amandla nezinye izinkalo, futhi zibe nendima ebaluleke kakhudlwana.

 

Ukuqhuma komkhakha nakho kuyahlelwa kabusha ngokwesakhiwo. Abahlaluzi bezokubolekisa baphawula ukuthi ukwanda kwamanani e-lithium iron phosphate kuleli nxenye kusekelwa izinto eziqinile, futhi umkhuba wokuthuthuka womkhakha wesikhathi eside uhlala uphumelela. Ngaphezu kwalokho, abangaphakathi ezinkampanini zamabhethri e-lithium bakhombisa ukuthi isidingo sabathengi siqhubeka nokuba namandla, futhi ukulungiswa kwamanani okubangelwa ukudluliselwa kwezindleko ngokuyisisekelo kubuyela ngokunengqondo enanini lomkhakha.

 

Ngokuma endaweni entsha lapho umkhakha uhambela khona ekuthuthukisweni kwekhwalithi ephezulu, ukuncintisana okuyinhloko kwezinkampani ngeke kusagcinwa nje kumandla okukhiqiza namakhono okulawula izindleko, kodwa kuzoncika kakhulu ekuncintiswaneni okuphelele kobuchwepheshe bokudala, amandla emali kanye namakhono okusebenzisana kwezinto zokuhlinzekwa.