Amanani e-Lithium Ayenyuka Kakhulu, kodwa Abakhulu Bemigudu Ephakathi Bayeka! Ukuhlangana Noma 'Amasu'?

Muva nje, imakethe ye-lithium carbonate ibonise isithombe esiyinkimbinkimbi "sokugqashuka nomlilo." Ngakolunye uhlangothi, amanani ezinto ezizayo kanye namanani ezinto ezikhona aqhubeka nokukhuphuka kakhulu ngokuzizwa okuphezulu kwemakethe; ngakolunye uhlangothi, abakhiqizi abakhulu be-lithium iron phosphate (LFP) njenge-Hunan Yuneng, i-Wanrun New Energy, i-Defang Nano, kanye ne-Anda Technology benze izinhlelo zokugcinwa nokuncishiswa kokukhiqiza okuhlala inyanga. Kungani kukhona umehluko lapho umkhakha wezinto ezisetshenziswa ekuqaleni "ushisa" kanti umkhakha wezinto ezisetshenziswa phakathi "ubanda"? Ingabe isikhathi salokhu kuncishiswa kokugcinwa kuyinto eyenzeka ngengozi noma ukuhlela okwenziwe ngabomu?

 

 

NgoDisemba 26, amanani e-lithium carbonate afike ezingeni elibalulekile. Ngosuku olufanayo, isivumelwano esiyinhloko se-lithium carbonate ku-Guangzhou Futures Exchange (GFEX) sahlala ngamandla ngaphezu komaki we-130,000 CNY/ton, sifinyelela phezulu kosuku lwe-130,800 CNY/ton—okuyinto entsha eminyakeni cishe emibili—nokwanda okuhlanganisiwe cishe okungu-70% ngonyaka. Imakethe esheshayo yalandela eduze, lapho izilinganiso ze-lithium carbonate ezisezingeni lebhethri zikhuphuka zihambisana futhi ukuhweba emakethe kuhlala kusebenza.

 

Umshayeli oyinhloko osekelayo leli hlangana uhlobene nokuqubuka kwesidingo. Imakethe yokugcina amandla isibe injini entsha yokukhula; izibalo ezivela ku-GGII zikhombisa ukuthi ukuthunyelwa kwamabhethri e-lithium aseChina okokugcina amandla kulindeleke ukuthi kudlule ku-580 GWh ngo-2025, ukwanda konyaka nonyaka okungaphezu kuka-75%. Phesheya kwezilwandle, uMthetho wase-U.S. "Big and Beautiful Act" owamunywa ngoJulayi wasebenza njengesikhuthazo. Ukugwema imithelela yenqubomgomo ye-"imikhawulo eqinile kuma-Foreign Entities of Concern (FEOC)" kanye "nokuphela kusenesikhathi kwezibonelelo zentela zelanga/ezimoyeni" ngaphakathi koMthetho, abakhiqizi baphuthume ukuqala ukwakha zingakapheli unyaka ka-2025 ukuze bavikele izibonelelo zephrojekthi. Ngaphezu kwalokho, amaphrojekthi amakhulu okugcina amandla ahlelwa eYurophu, eSaudi Arabia, nakwezinye izifunda. Ukuhlanganiswa kwalawa macala kuholele ekwanda kwesidingo sokufakwa, okwaholela esimweni lapho amaselula ebhethri aphezulu "ayebucayi ukutholakala". Ngaphezu kwalokho, isidingo samabhethri kagesi aseChina sihlala siqinile. Kusukela ngoJanuwari kuya kuNovemba 2025, ukuthengiswa kwezimoto ezintsha zasekhaya kufinyelele ku-12.466 million, ukwanda konyaka nonyaka okungama-23.2%, ngemakethe efinyelele esigabeni esingaphezu kuka-50% ngo-Okthoba futhi iqhubeka nokukhula. Izinkampani zamabhethri zisebenza ngamandla aphelele, futhi abanye abakhiqizi bezimoto baze bafika "bahlala ezimbonini belindele impahla" ukuze baqinisekise ukutholakala.

 

Nokho, phakathi kokwanda kwezinto zokusetshenziswa ezingxenyeni ezingenhla kanye nezi-oda zebhethri eziqinile ezingxenyeni ezingezansi, izinkampani ezine ezihamba phambili ezingxenyeni eziphakathi kwe-LFP zanciphise ukukhiqiza ngokuhlanganyela. Kusukela kusihlwa sangoDisemba 25 kuya ku-26, abakhiqizi abane abakhulu be-LFP—okubalwa kubo iHunan Yuneng, iWanrun New Energy, iDefang Nano, kanye neAnda Technology—ngokulandelana bakhiphe izimemezelo ezihlobene nokuncishiswa kokukhiqiza ukuze kulungiswe. Isikhathi siqondene ekupheleni kuka-2025 kuya ekuqaleni kuka-2026, lapho isikhathi ngasinye sokulungiswa sihlala inyanga eyodwa. Phakathi kwazo, iWanrun New Energy ilindele ukunciphisa ukukhiqizwa kwe-LFP ngamathani angu-5,000 kuya ku-20,000; iHunan Yuneng ilindele ukunciphisa ukukhiqizwa kwezinto zekhathodei ye-phosphate ngamathani angu-15,000 kuya ku-35,000; iAnda Technology ilindele ukunciphisa ukukhiqizwa kwe-LFP ngamathani angu-3,000 kuya ku-5,000; kanti iDefang Nano imemezele ukulungiswa kwezinto ezithile zokusebenza kusukela ngoJanuwari 1, 2026, cishe inyanga eyodwa. Sekukonke, ngaphandle kweDefang Nano, isilinganiso sokuncishiswa kokukhiqiza esihlangene sezinkampani ezintathu sisukela kumathani angu-23,000 kuya ku-60,000. Ukuncishiswa okuhambisanayo okunjalo kuye kwadala ukunakwa okukhulu emakethe.

 

 

Eqinisweni, isizathu esiqondile nesingenakuphikiswa salesi senzo sokugcinwa esihlanganisiwe yisidingo sangempela sokugcinwa kwemishini ngemuva kokukhiqiza isikhathi eside ngokugcwele.

 

Kusukela ngo-2025, isidingo esikhulu sezimoto ezintsha zamandla (NEVs) nokugcinwa kwamandla sesishukumise ukwanda kwesidingo se-LFP, sigcina amazinga okusebenzisa amandla ezinkampani ezihamba phambili esigabeni sokugcwala ngokweqile. Isimemezelo seHunan Yuneng sathi "ukusebenzisa amandla kudlule u-100% kusukela ekuqaleni konyaka," iWanrun New Energy yathi "imigqa yokukhiqiza i-LFP yenkampani ibisebenza ngokweqile kusukela ekupheleni konyaka," futhi iDefang Nano neAnda Technology nazo zibhekene nengcindezi yokulungisa imishini ngenxa yokukhiqiza okuphezulu unyaka wonke. Ngokombono ojwayelekile, ukulungiswa kokuphela konyaka kuyindlela yomkhakha. Ukukhiqiza isikhathi eside ngokugcwele kusheshisa ukuguga kwemishini eyinhloko (njengama-reactor nama-calciners), futhi ukulungiswa okuvamile kuhlose ukwenza ukugcinwa okudingekayo nokuthuthukiswa kobuchwepheshe ukuze kugwenywe izingozi zokwehluleka futhi kuqinisekiswe ukukhiqiza okuzinzile nokusebenza kahle unyaka ozayo.

 

Nokho, abangaphakathi embonini bathi ukugcinwa okuhlangene kwabakhiqizi be-LFP kungenxa yokufuna ukulinganisa izintshisekelo ngaphakathi kweketango lezimboni.

 

Njengoba iyona nto eyinhloko ekwenziweni kwe-LFP, amanani e-lithium carbonate aqhubeke nokukhuphuka kusukela ngoJuni 2025, amanani ezindawo ze-lithium carbonate esezingeni lebhethri akhuphuke kusuka ku-60,000 CNY/ton kuya ngaphezu kuka-120,000 CNY/ton, okubangele ukukhuphuka kwezindleko zokukhiqiza izinto zekhathode. Phakathi naleso sikhathi, izimali zokucubungula i-LFP bezihlale zicindezelwe ngaphansi kuka-15,000 CNY/ton, zawa ngaphansi komugqa wezindleko ezijwayelekile embonini (15,700 - 16,400 CNY/ton). Lo mphumela wokubambana "wokukhuphuka kwezindleko kodwa izimali zokucubungula ezingashintshi" ubangele ukulahlekelwa okubanzi. Ezinyangeni ezintathu zokuqala zika-2025, inzuzo enkulu ye-Defang Nano yayingu -2.13%, kanti eyakwa-Wanrun New Energy yayingu-1.7% kuphela. Umuntu ofanele ovela enkampanini ye-LFP esohlwini uthe imboni ibilokhu ilahlekelwa cishe iminyaka emithathu ilandelana.

 

Ngokujulile, lokhu kubonisa ukungahambelani phakathi komjikelezo wamandla embonini nomjikelezo wesidingo. Ngemuva kwenkathi yokwanda eminyakeni edlule, umkhakha wezinto zekathode uqoqe amandla amakhulu okukhiqiza. Lapho ukubuyiselwa kwesidingo kuqala kubangela ukuthi amanani ezinsiza ezingezansi anyuke, umkhakha ophakathi, ngenxa yokuncintisana okunamandla namandla abuthakathaka okuxoxisana, ubona ukuthi ukukhiqiza kwawo okweqile kwandisa ukushaqeka kwezindleko, futhi inzuzo incishiswa kakhulu ekwabiweni kabusha komkhiqizo. Ngaphansi kwezimo lapho amanani ezinto ezibonakalayo eqhubeka nokukhuphuka kodwa izingcindezi zezindleko zingadluliselwa kalula kubathengi, ukukhiqiza kufana nokulahlekelwa. Ngakho-ke, ukuthatha isinyathelo sokunciphisa ukukhiqiza kube yisinqumo esihlakaniphile sezinkampani ukubhekana nokulahlekelwa nokunciphisa ukopha kwemali. Ukugcinwa okufanayo okwenziwa izinkampani ezihamba phambili kubonisa ukubambisana embonini; ngokunciphisa isikhathi esifushane ukuhlinzekwa, zihlose ukusekela amanani emakethe. Ngaphansi kwezimo ezinjalo, ukwehlisa izinga lokusebenza kuguquka kusuka ekucindezelweni okungokwemvelo kokusebenza kuya "kucebo" lokusebenza olusebenzayo—injongo yalo eyinhloko ukudala isikhala esibalulekile sokuxoxisana ngamanani esikhathi esizayo ngokunciphisa ukuhlinzekwa ngezikhathi ezithile. Njengoba kusho umholi wenhlangano yomkhakha, lesi "yisinyathelo sokugcina." Ngenxa yalokho, ukugcinwa okugxilile izinkampani ezihamba phambili nazo zihlose ukuqinisa amathuluzi azo okuxoxisana ukuze kukhushwe amanani nabakhiqizi bamabhethri abaphansi. Kuyaqondakala ukuthi umkhakha usuqalise umzuliswano wesibili wokukhuphuka kwamanani, izinkampani ezijwayelekile zihlela ukukhuphula izimali zokucubungula ngo-2,000 - 3,000 CNY/ton, okuzothuthukisa kakhulu inzuzo uma kufezwa.

 

Le "isu" elibonakala lizimele empeleni lihambisana nezinyathelo ezingenhla. Muva nje, umvukuzi ongaphambili uTianqi Lithium, ephawula "ukuhlukana okuqhubekayo nokubalulekile" phakathi kwezilinganiso ezijwayelekile (njengezivela ku-SMM) namanani entengiselwano/esikhathini esizayo, wakubona lokhu njengenselele emisebenzini yayo ngakho-ke walungisa isilinganiso sakhe sokubeka amanani, okubonisa ukulwa ukuze kufezwe uhlelo olulungile lokubeka amanani. Phakathi naleso sikhathi, ukuncishiswa kokukhiqizwa okwenziwa izinkampani ezingaphakathi kuyimpendulo ezicini zangaphambili zokudlulisela izindleko. Izinyathelo ezibonakala zihlukile ezivela phezulu naphansi ekugcineni zihlangana, zihlose ukubuyisela amanani omkhiqizo emuva ezingeni elithi "izindleko + inzuzo efanele".

 

 

Sibheke phambili ethrendini elilandelayo yamanani e-lithium carbonate, ochwepheshe baphawula ukuthi imakethe izongena esigabeni esisha sezinto ezilwa phakathi kwezinto ezikhuthaza ukukhuphuka kanye nezinto ezikhuthaza ukwehla. Kulindeleke ukuthi isikhungo samani sihlale siphezulu, kanti isakhiwo sangaphakathi se-chungechunge lwezimboni sibhekene nokuguqulwa. Amanani esikhathi esifushane asathola ukwesekwa okuqinile kusuka ezintweni eziningana ezibalulekile zezimboni.

 

Izimboni zezinto ze-cathode zinciphisa ukukhiqiza ukuze kusekelwe amanani, okwenza ukudluliswa kwezinyuso zamanani e-lithium kube nethemba. Ukuhlaziywa kwe-SMM kubonisa ukuthi nakuba izinkampani ezihamba phambili ze-LFP seziqalile umzuliswano wesibili wezingxoxo muva nje, umzuliswano wokuqala ezimbonini eziningi zezinye izinto usazobonakala. Abakhiqizi bamabhethri abasebenzisa izinto ezisetshenziswa ngezansi bavumile ngokuvamile ingcindezi evela ezinyusweni zamanani ezinto ezisetshenziswa ekukhiqizeni, kodwa ukusebenza kwangempela kusazobhekwa imiphumela yezingxoxo ezengeziwe. Uma izinyuso zamanani ezilandelayo ezimbonini zezinto ze-cathode zenzeka, kuyoba ngenzuzo enkulu ekudlulisweni kwezinyuso zamanani e-lithium, okuvula amathuba okwanda. Ngaleso sikhathi, ukulungiswa kwe-Tianqi Lithium okwezinga layo lokubeka amanani kuphinde kuqinisekise ngokungaqondile isidingo esinamandla sabathengi.

 

Ukuphakama okukhulu embonini kuyaqhubeka, kanti izinto ezisele ze-lithium carbonate zihlala ziphansi njalo. Ngokwedatha yocwaningo oluvela ezimbonini zebhethri eziyi-20 eziphezulu yi-TD Tech (TD), ukuhlelwa komsebenzi wokukhiqiza kwemakethe yebhethri ye-lithium yaseChina (ukugcina amandla + amandla + abathengi) ngoJanuwari 2026 kuzoba cishe u-210 GWh, yehla ngo-4.5% njalo ngenyanga, kwenza kangcono kunokulindelekile kwemakethe. Ngokwedatha ye-SMM, inani lamathani ezinto ezisele ze-lithium carbonate masonto onke ngoDisemba 25, 2025, belingu-109,800, yehla ngo-652 njalo ngenyanga, okuyisonto lesi-19 elilandelelanayo lokuncipha kwezinto, kanti amazinga ezinto ezisele ashaye isikhathi esiphansi kusukela ngoFebhuwari 20, 2025.

 

Isidingo samandla agciniweyo naso siyakhulisa ukulindela, futhi imodeli yokunikezwa nokufunwa kulindeleke ukuthi ithuthuke ngo-2026. Ngenxa yezindleko ezinciphayo, imikhuba yokukhuthaza ukusabalala okukhulu kwamanani aphezulu naphansi, kanye nokwethulwa kwamandla kagesi anezintengo ezithile noma imikhuba yokukhokhela ezifundazweni ezithile zasekhaya, izinzuzo zamandla agciniweyo asekhaya kulindeleke ukuthi zikhuphuke, ngaleyo ndlela zishukumise isidingo. Ngokwezibalo zeXinluo Consulting, ukuthunyelwa kwamabhethri e-lithium emhlabeni wonke amandla agciniweyo kufinyelele ku-620 GWh ngo-2025, ukwanda konyaka okungu-77%, futhi kulindeleke ukuthi kufinyelele ku-960 GWh ngo-2026, ukwanda konyaka okungu-54.8%. Ngokombono wezindleko zemali, izindleko zemali ezikhokhelwa izinkampani ezinkulu zomhlaba ezimayela i-lithium zibonise ukwehla okukhulu kusukela ngo-2024, okuhambisana nokwehla okulindelekile ekukhuleni kokunikezwa kwemikhiqizo emisha noma eyandisiwe ngo-2026 kanye no-2027. Ukuthatha indawo kwezimoto zikagesi ngamandla agciniweyo kulindeleke ukuthi kube yikhona okuzokhulisa isidingo se-lithium, futhi imodeli yokunikezwa nokufunwa kulindeleke ukuthi ithuthuke ngo-2026.

 

Nokho, indawo yokunyuka okukhulu kwamanani entengo isobala ukuthi iyimikhawulo. Okokuqala, ukunwebeka kokuhlinzekwa kuzovela kancane kancane. Lapho amanani ezimile ku-130,000 CNY/ton nangaphezulu, umdlandla wokuqalisa kabusha ukukhiqizwa kwamandla omkhawulo (njengokukhipha i-lithium esekelwe ku-mica) ayekade eyekisiwe ngenxa yezindleko eziphakeme uzokwanda, futhi ukungeniswa kwempahla kwamanye amazwe kungase kwenyuke. Okwesibili, umphumela "wophahla" wokubekezelelwa kwezindleko ezansi komthombo. Isimo esinzima samanje sezinkampani eziphakathi nendawo sikhale i-alamu; uma amanani e-lithium eqhubeka nokukhuphuka ngokushesha nangokungaguquki, kuzodla kakhulu inzuzo yomkhakha wonke wokukhiqiza ophakathi nendawo kuya phansi, ekugcineni kubambe isidingo. Lo mshikashika wokubuyisela emuva uzocindezela ukwanda kwamanani.

 

Ngokuhlanganisa imibono yezikhungo, esikhathini esifushane, amanani e-lithium carbonate cishe azogcina esezingeni eliphezulu. Amaphuzu abalulekile okubhekwa kuwo kuleli threndi atholakala ezinhlelweni zokuhlela ukukhiqiza embonini ngoJanuwari 2026 kanye nokwamukelwa kwamanani akhona ngabakhiqizi abasebenzisa imikhiqizo. Esikhathini eside, le nkinga yokuntengantenga ingase isheshise ukuthuthukiswa kwesakhiwo se-chain yomkhakha. Izinkampani ezinkulu zezinto ezibonakalayo ezinezinhlelo zokuthola izinsiza ze-lithium ezihlanganisiwe nokubophezela okujulile kumakhasimende asezingeni eliphezulu zizobona amakhono azo okumelana nezingozi kanye nezinzuzo zezindleko ziba sobala kakhulu. Umkhakha wonke kulindeleke ukuthi usuke ekuncintiswaneni okulula okusekelwe kusayizi wamandla okukhiqiza uye ekuncintiswaneni okuphelele kokuzinza kwe-supply chain, isivinini sokuvuselela ubuchwepheshe, namakhono okulawula izindleko. I-ecosystem ye-lithium battery enempilo futhi eqine kakhulu idinga ukusungulwa kwemishini efanelekayo futhi esobala kakhudlwana yokwabelana ngezinzuzo nokwabelana ngezingozi phakathi kwe-upstream ne-downstream.