Kusuka Ekupheleleni kuya Ekushodeleni? Ukugcinwa kwamandla kuvela njenge-Game-Changer kaLithium njengoba iMorgan Stanley ixwayisa ngokushoda kwamathani angu-80,000

Njengoba isikhathi singena ngokusemthethweni ku-2026, ochwepheshe bemboni balindele kabanzi ukuthi ukukhula okunamandla kokugcinwa kwamandla ebhethri kulindeleke ukuthi kuthuthukise ukubuka kwesidingo somhlaba wonke se-lithium kulo nyaka, kunikeze ithemba lokululama okusheshayo komkhakha we-lithium obulokhu uhlaselwa ukuhlinzekwa ngokweqile eminyakeni yamuva.

Kusukela ingxenye yesibili ka-2022, imakethe ye-lithium ibilokhu ibhekene nokwanda kokuhlinzekwa. Ngenkathi ukukhuphuka kwentengo okubangelwe ukwanda okukhulu kwamabhethri e-EV ngalowo nyaka kukhuthaze ukwanda kokuhlinzekwa, isidingo siye sabambezeleka ukuhambisana nomthamo omkhulu wokuhlinzekwa iminyaka. Kodwa-ke, njengoba izinguquko emkhakheni wamandla eChina zibangele ukwanda okungalindelekile kwesidingo se-lithium samabhethri okugcina amandla engxenyeni yesibili ka-2025, lokhu kuye kwasekelwa umbono wokuba nethemba ngokucophelela ngemakethe ye-lithium ngonyaka ozayo.

 

Abangaphakathi embonini baphawula ukuthi ukwanda okukhulu kokwakhiwa kwezikhungo zedatha eChina nasemhlabeni jikelele kuphinde kwabangelwa ukwanda kwesidingo se-lithium sokugcina amandla, bagcizelela ukuthi izinga lokukhula kwesidingo se-lithium emkhakheni wokugcina amandla lidlule okulindelekile engxenyeni yesibili ka-2025. Sibheke phambili, ukugcina amandla kungenzeka kube "okuzoshintsha umdlalo" emakethe ye-lithium, kuthuthukise izisekelo zayo.

 

Idatha ibonisa ukuthi izinhlelo zokugcina amandla ebhethri sezibe yinto ethengiswa kakhulu eChina kwezobuchwepheshe obuhlanzekile—zirekhode inani lokuthekelisa elingaba yi- $66 billion eziyishumi lokuqala izinyanga zika-2025, zadlula izimoto zikagesi (ezingaba yi- $54 billion).

I-Morgan Stanley muva nje ibikezela ukushoda komhlaba wonke kwamathani angu-80,000 e-Lithium Carbonate Equivalent (LCE) ngo-2026; i-UBS ilinganisa ukushoda kwamathani angu-22,000, kulandela ukwanda okulindelekile kokuhlinzekwa kwamathani angu-61,000 ngo-2025.

Ngokwemibiko yezibikezelo ehlinzekwa ucwaningo lwabahlaziyi abane abangazange babizwe ngamagama, isidingo somhlaba wonke se-lithium kulindeleke ukuthi sikhule ngo-17%-30% ngo-2026, kanti ukuhlinzekwa kulindeleke ukuthi kwande ngo-19%-34%. Laba bahlaziyi babikezela ububanzi bentengo ye-lithium ka-RMB 80,000-200,000 nge-tonne (cishe u-$11,432-$28,580) ngo-2026, uma kuqhathaniswa no-2025 ububanzi buka-RMB 58,400-134,500.

 

Sibheka emuva unyaka odlule, amanani e-lithium aqhubeke nokwehla ekuqaleni konyaka ka-2025, afinyelela phansi kakhulu konyaka we-RMB 58,400 ngomhlaka-23 kuJuni. Njengoba inzuzo kanye namanani ezitoko zabamayini bomhlaba wonke bebhekene nengcindezi, ezinye izinkampani zaphoqeleka ukuthi zinciphise ukukhiqiza.

Nokho, kulandela isithembiso saseChina sokubhekana nokukhiqiza ngokweqile emikhakheni eyahlukahlukene, okubandakanya ne-lithium, umgodi weJianxiawo—umgodi we-lepidolite e-Yichun ongoka-CATL—wavalwa ngo-Agasti nyakenye, okwaholela ekubuyiseleni phezulu okunamandla emakethe ye-lithium yomhlaba wonke ekuqaleni konyaka.

Amanani e-lithium carbonate asekhaya manje anyuke ngo-130% kusukela ephansi kakhulu nyakenye—afinyelela ku-RMB 134,500 nge-tonne ngomhlaka-29 kuZibandlela, 2025, izinga eliphezulu kakhulu kusukela ngoNovemba 2023. Amanani asheshayo ahlelwe umhlinzeki wolwazi i-Fastmarkets nawo anyuke ngo-108% esikhathini esifanayo.

Ngaphansi kokukhuphuka okunamandla kwamanani e-lithium, ngaphandle kokuthi ukuhlinzekwa kunciphe, isidingo esinamandla esivela ekugcinweni kwamandla singene indima enkulu. Ngokwezibalo ezivela ku-UBS, isidingo se-lithium emkhakheni wokugcina amandla kulindeleke ukuthi sikhule ngo-71% ngo-2025, kanti ukukhula kulindeleke ukuthi kufike ku-55% ngo-2026.

Izibalo ezivela ku-Guotai Junan zikhombisa ukuthi isidingo se-Lithium Carbonate Equivalent emkhakheni wokugcina amandla sizoba yi-31% yokusetshenziswa okuphelele ngo-2026, sikhule sisuka ku-23% ngo-2025, ngaleyo ndlela siqhubeke nokunciphisa isabelo semakethe esivame ukubanjwa amabhethri ezimoto zikagesi.

Impela, ngokubheka phambili, ubukhulu bokwanda kwamanani e-lithium bungase buvinjelwe, njengoba amanani aphezulu kakhulu angase anciphise ukusebenza kahle kwezomnotho kokugcinwa kwamandla.

 

Ezinye izingozi ezinkulu ezikhulunywe abahlaziyi zihlanganisa: ukuthuthela okungenzeka ngokushesha kunokulindelekile kwezinhlelo zokugcina amandla kubuchwepheshe bebhethri le-sodium-ion; ukwehla kokuthengiswa kwezimoto zikagesi okunganciphisa isidingo; nokwanda kokuhlinzekwa okungase kukhawulele ukwanda kwamanani.