Kwaphindwe kabili ezinyangeni eziyisithupha, kufika ku-150,000 Yuan ngentoni! Ngemuva kokukhuphuka kwentengo ye-lithium, umkhakha wamabhethri uyashintsha

Ekuqaleni kuka-2026, izinkontileka zekhabhonethi ye-lithium zaphinde zabamba isithukuthezi ngokunyuka okuqhubekayo kwentengo. Ngomhla kaJanuwari 9, isivumelwano esiyinhloko sekhabhonethi ye-lithium sivalelwe ku-143,420 yuan nge-ton, siqoqe ukwanda okungaphezu kuka-120% kusuka ku-59,900 yuan nge-ton ngoJuni 5, 2025, okubeka irekhodi eliphezulu kusukela ngoNovemba 2023.

Le ntengo, esondela ku-150,000 yuan nge-ton, isibe "isibambiso" sentengo esivelele kakhulu ochungechungeni lwezimboni zamandla amasha, ithinta ngqo imikhakha engenhla kanye nengaphansi.

"Isidingo esivela ku-2025 kuze kube manje singachazwa ngokuthi sigcwele: ukuthengiswa kwezimoto ezintsha zamandla kukhuphuke ngaphezu kuka-30% unyaka nonyaka, ukufakwa kwamabhethri amandla kukhuphuke ngaphezu kuka-40%, futhi imakethe yokugcina amandla isibe ihhashi elimnyama eliqinisekile, ngevolumu yokubhida amaphrojekthi asekhaya iphindeke kabili kanye nama-oda angaphandle ekhuphuka kanyekanye. Isabelo sayo sokukhiqiza siyayisukela eyokwamabhethri amandla, futhi izinkampani ezihamba phambili sezivele zigcwalise izincwadi zazo zama-oda kuze kube ngu-2026," kusho umhlaziyi wezimakethe zezimali ephawula ngezinto ezishukumisa le nkinga yokwanda kwentengo ye-lithium carbonate.

Ngokombono womuntu olwazi umkhakha, ukungahambelani phakathi kokunikezwa nokufunwa kuye kwandisa kakhulu ukushodelwa kwesikhashana. "NgoJanuwari 4 kulo nyaka, iState Council yakhishela umbhalo ophakamisa, ngokuyisisekelo, ukuthi kungabe kusavunyelwa amaphrojekthi okucubungula imigodi angenawo izimayela zawo noma izindawo zokusebenzisa nokulahlwa kwezinsalela. Amaphrojekthi amakhulu okwandisa njengeprojekthi yeGanfeng Lithium's Cauchari-Olaroz salt lake lithium extraction project e-Argentina kanye neprojekthi yesibili yeTianqi Lithium eSuining, Sichuan, kusamanje ayanda futhi ayikwazi ukufaka isandla ekunikezelweni okubalulekile esikhathini esifushane. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukugcinwa okugxilile ezinkampanini ze-lithium iron phosphate (LFP) ngaphambi kweChinese New Year kwaholela ekunciphisweni kokukhiqiza."

Ngaphezu kwalokho, i-"Solid Waste Comprehensive Management Action Plan" eyakhishwe yiState Council ngomhla zingama-27 kuZibandlela, 2025, yengeza omunye umkhawulo wenqubomgomo ezindlekweni zemboni, okungenzeka ukuthi yandise izindleko zokusebenza ezinkampanini esikhathini esifushane. Ngomhla zingama-7 kuMasingana kulo nyaka, iministeri emine okubalwa phakathi kwayo i-Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) ibambe ngokuhlanganyela ingqungquthela yokubhekana nokuncintisana okungafanele embonini yamabhethri e-lithium, igcizelela ngokusobala ukulawula ngokuqinile ukwakhiwa okubuyelela kanye nokunqanda ukudayisa ngamanani aphansi. Leli cala lenqubomgomo lishintshe izinto ezilindele emakethe maqondana nokugcwala ngokweqile embonini, okwandise ukukhuphuka kwamandla e-lithium.

Ngenxa yokwenyuka kwezindleko zezinto zokusetshenziswa, abakhiqizi bebhethri bathatha izinyathelo ezahlukahlukene. Ezinye izinkampani ezihamba phambili sezivele zimemezele ukuguquguquka kwamanani. Ngokwesibonelo, iSuzhou Dejia Energy Technology Co., Ltd. isanda kumemezela ukwenyuka kwamanani ngo-15% ochungechungeni lomkhiqizo wayo webhethri.

Okubaluleke kakhulu, ukwakhiwa kabusha kwezinto zokukhiqiza okugxile ezivumelwaneni "ezesikhathi eside" kuyenzeka, okwenza ukuhlukana ngaphakathi kweketango lokukhiqiza ibhethri kuqhubeke kucace bha. Izinkampani ezihamba phambili, ezisebenzisa izinzuzo zazo ezinkulu nokulawula izinto zokukhiqiza, zakha izindawo zokuncintisana ngokusayina izivumelwano zesikhathi eside nezigaba zokuxhumanisa amanani ukuze ziqinisekise izindleko.

Izivumelwano zesikhathi eside zamanje embonini ngokuvamile ziyayeka izindlela eziqinile zamanani angaguquki, zithatha izindlela zokubeka amanani eziguquguqukayo njenge "ezixhunywe kwi-SMM index + ibanga lezindleko," okuvumela ukuguquguquka kwamanani kusuka ku-10% kuye ku-15%, futhi zifaka izigaba eziguquguqukayo zokulungisa ivolumu ukuze zibhekane nokushintshashintsha kwemakethe.

Umfundisi embonini unikeze izibonelo: Isivumelwano esingeziwe phakathi kweLongpan Technology neChuneng New Energy sibeka ukuthengiswa okuphelele okudlula ama-yuan ayizigidi ezingama-45 kusukela ngo-2025 kuya ku-2030, kanti iTianci Materials izibophezele ukuhlinzeka ngamathani angu-725,000 e-electrolyte kuCALB kusukela ngo-2026 kuya ku-2028. Izivumelwano ezinkulu ezinjalo zesikhathi eside ngokuvamile zihlanganisa izinhlinzeko zobuchwepheshe nezokuxhumanisa amanani.

Uhlaziya lwemboni luphawule ukuthi le modeli yokubopha ejulile iqinisekisa ukuhlinzekwa kwezinsiza ezinkampanini ezihamba phambili zebhethri ngenkathi ingabandakanyi abakhiqizi bebhethri abezesibili nabesithathu ezindaweni ezibalulekile zokuhlinzekwa kwezinto, okubonisa ukuthi kuseduze umjikelezo omusha wokuhlanganiswa kwemboni.

"Isikhathi esimaphakathi neside, isidingo esikhulu esivela emakethe yezimoto ezintsha zamandla emhlabeni kanye nemakethe yokugcina amandla sizosheshisa ukuphuma kwamandla aphansi, okuzokwenza izinsiza kanye neziyalezo zigxile ezinkampanini ezihamba phambili nezihlangene," umhlaziyi uphawulile. "Ingxenye yezinkampani ezizuzayo emkhakheni we-LFP ingama-16.7% kuphela, ephansi kakhulu kunezinye izinto eziyinhloko zamabhethri e-lithium njenge-ternary cathode kanye nezinto ze-anode. Kusukela ngo-2023 kuya ku-Q3 2025, izinkampani ezinhlanu ezisohlwini lwe-LFP ziqonge izikweletu ezingaphezu kwebhiliyoni eyi-10.9 yuan."

Ngo-2025, i-CR10 (ukuhlangana kwemakethe yabelana yenkampani eziyishumi ezihamba phambili) embonini yamabhethri eChina yanda ukusuka ku-65% yaya ku-75%, lapho izinkampani ezihamba phambili zandisa khona ukuhlanganyela kwazo emakethe ngokuhlanganiswa nokuthengwa. Abakhiqizi abancane nabaphakathi abanekhono lokukhiqiza unyaka wonke elingaphansi kwe-5 GWh bayasuswa ngesivinini esikhulu, kanti i-CR5 yezinkampani ezihamba phambili idlule ku-50%.

Muva nje, iSalt Lake Co., Ltd. yembule uhlelo lokuthola impahla, iphakamisa ukuthola isabelo esingu-51% eWukuang Salt Lake kumphathi wayo oyinhloko, iChina Salt Lake, ngama-yuan ayizigidi ezi-4.605 ngokheshi. Ngesonto eledlule, iChengxin Lithium Group yamemezela izinhlelo zokuthola isabelo esingu-30% eQicheng Mining ngendodakazi yayo ephethwe ngokuphelele ngama-yuan ayizigidi ezi-2.08 ngokheshi. Le misebenzi ye-M&A ikhombisa ukuthi izinsiza zamaminerali e-lithium sezibuyela ekufunweni kakhulu.

"Lokhu akuyona into yesikhashana nje egxile ekucabangeni, kodwa ukuhlaziywa okuhlelekile kwenani okusekelwe ekunikezeni nasekufuneni kwangempela, izindleko, kanye nomthelela embonini," kusho omunye umuntu ongaphakathi embonini. "Izinkampani ezinemithombo yezinsiza, ubuchwepheshe obujulile, isiyalo sokukhiqiza, nokwethembeka kwamakhasimende zishintsha kusuka ekubeni 'abathatha amanani' ziye 'ekubeni abahlanganyeli ekudaleni imithetho.'"

Amanani aphezulu kakhulu e-lithium nawo asebenza njenge-"catalyst" yokuziphendukela kobuchwepheshe, okushukumisa imboni yamabhethri ukuthi ihlukahluke. Ezindaweni zokugcina amandla ezingaphansi naphakathi nezicelo zamandla ezilula, amabhethri e-sodium-ion, asebenzisa inzuzo yawo "engenayo i-lithium", afike ekukhiqizeni ngobuningi, futhi aba enye indlela ebalulekile kumabhethri e-LFP.

Uma kuqhathaniswa namabhethri e-lithium, amabhethri e-sodium-ion anezindleko ezizinzile zezinto zawo, njengoba i-sodium ibalwa ngo-2.3% ekuqhakazeni komhlaba, futhi izindleko zokukhipha izinto zayo zingama-1/20 kuphela kwezika-lithium. Izindleko zezinto ze-cathode (i-copper iron manganese oxide) zamabhethri e-sodium-ion zingaphansi ngo-35% kuneze-LFP, kanti izindleko zezinto ze-anode (i-hard carbon) zingaphansi ngo-40%. Ngaphezu kwalokho, amabhethri e-sodium-ion abonisa ukusebenza okuhle kakhulu ezingeni lokushisa eliphansi, egcina ngaphezu kuka-90% womthamo ku--20°C, okwenza afaneleke kahle ezimeni zokusetshenziswa njengokugcina amandla ezindaweni ezibandayo kakhulu.

Uma sibheka emuva ku-2025, umdlandla wokutshala izimali emkhakheni webhethri ye-sodium-ion wawudlula lowo webhethri ye-solid-state. Ngokwezibalo ezingaphelele zemboni, amaphrojekthi angu-28 amemezelwe anezimali ezikhonjisiwe afike cishe ku-61.5 billion yuan. Phakathi kwala, amaphrojekthi amathathu abandakanya izimali ezingaphezu kuka-5 billion yuan, kanti amaphrojekthi angu-18 ayenazo izimali ezingaphezu kuka-1 billion yuan. I-Southwest ne-East China zavela njengezindawo eziyinhloko, zihlela amandla angu-81 GWh no-78 GWh ngokulandelana.

Ngo-2026, amabhethri e-sodium-ion afike esigabeni esibalulekile "sokukhuphula umthamo nokuqinisekiswa kwemakethe." Amabhethri e-sodium-ion e-CATL afakwe ngamaqoqo kumamodeli avela kwaChery kanye neJianghuai, futhi ayangena emkhakheni wokugcina amandla ezindlini. Ukuthunyelwa kwamabhethri e-sodium-ion ePenghui Energy kukhula ngokuqhubekayo emakethe yokugcina amandla ezindlini kanye namandla aphathwayo. I-HiNa Battery, isebenzisa umthamo wayo we-GWh, iqinisa inzuzo yayo yobuchwepheshe kumaphrojekthi wokugcina amandla esifunda.

Kubalulekile ukuqaphela ukuthi amabhethri e-solid-state, ayesalindelwe kakhulu ngekhono lawo "lokungabi ne-lithium", empeleni abonisa ukuncika okwandayo ku-lithium. Idatha yomkhakha ikhombisa ukuthi ukusetshenziswa kwe-lithium kumabhethri e-solid-state kuzo zonke izindlela ezahlukene zobuchwepheshe kudlula kakhulu lokho kwamabhethri e-LFP: amabhethri e-solid-state e-sulfide/oxide adinga cishe amathani angu-850 we-lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) nge-GWh, izikhathi ezingu-1.5 kunezamabhethri e-LFP (amathani angu-567/GWh); amabhethri e-solid-state e-lithium metal asebenzisa amathani angu-1,088 e-LCE/GWh, izikhathi ezingu-1.8 kunezamabhethri e-LFP; kanti amabhethri e-all-solid-state e-lithium metal adinga kufika amathani angu-1,906 e-LCE/GWh, izikhathi ezingu-3.4 kunezamabhethri e-LFP.

Ngokuqondene nentuthuko yokuthengiswa, iQingtao Energy yafinyelela ekukhiqizeni izivivinyo zephrojekthi yayo yezinto ezithile zebhethri eliqinile ngoJulayi 2025, enomthamo ohleliwe ongama-65 GWh, futhi yenze ubudlelwano obujulile nezinkampani zezimoto ezifana neSAIC neGAC. Amabhethri esizukulwane sesibili semi-solid-state eWeilan New Energy afike ekukhiqizweni ngobuningi ngo-2025, neziphakamiso zokufakwa okuncane kwamabhethri aqinile ezimotweni ngo-2027.

Ngakolunye uhlangothi, izinkampani zamabhethri ezigxile ocwaningweni nasekuthuthukiseni ezingeni lokuqala zibhekana nezinkinga ezinkulu zokuthola uxhaso, njengoba imali ikhetha kakhulu amaphrojekthi anobuchwepheshe obuphumelelayo nezikhono zokukhiqiza eziqinisekisiwe, okwenza "Umphumela kaMatthew" wemboni ubonakale kakhulu.

Ngokusho kochwepheshe bemboni, ukukhiqizwa kwezobuchwepheshe bebhethri eliqinile kulindeleke ukuthi kube khona cishe ngo-2030. Yize ukuthuthukiswa kwayo kuzokwandisa kakhulu isidingo sezinsiza ze-lithium, amanani aphezulu e-lithium nawo ahlinzeka ngamandla emboni ukuthi ithuthukise futhi ikhuthaze izindlela zobuchwepheshe ezincikene kancane ne-lithium.

Esimeni samandla entengo ye-lithium carbonate esondela ku-150,000 yuan nge-ton, uchungechunge lwezimboni zamandla amasha ludlula ukuguqulwa okungakaze kubonwe. "Lapho ijika lentengo ye-lithium carbonate libheka phezulu, okufanele kunakwe ngempela akuwona ukwanda ngokwakho, kodwa ukuthi ubani ongaguqula lokhu kwanda kwentengo kube inzuzo eqhubekayo nokuncintisana kumjikelezo omusha," kuchaza umhlaziyi wokutshalwa kwezimali. Ukushintshashintsha kwentengo ye-lithium carbonate akuyona nje "impi yentengo" yomkhakha; kuphinde kube isheshisa ushintsho lomkhakha ukusuka "kuqhutshwa izinsiza" kuya "kuqhutshwa ubuchwepheshe." Kule nqubo, yizinkampani ezinamandla obuchwepheshe bangempela, ukulawula izinsiza, kanye nezinzuzo zezindleko kuphela ezingabamba ithuba kumjikelezo omusha.