Amanani e-Lithium Ayakhuphuka, kodwa Izinkampani Ezinkulu Ziyayeka! Kuyinto Eqondene Nayo Noma Isu?

Muva nje, imakethe ye-lithium carbonate ibonise isithombe esiyinkimbinkimbi "somlilo nombhedu". Ngakolunye uhlangothi, amanani ezikhathi ezizayo kanye namanani asheshayo aqhubeka nokukhuphuka kwawo kakhulu ngomdlandla omkhulu wemakethe; ngakolunye uhlangothi, abakhiqizi abakhulu bezinto ze-iron phosphate (LFP) cathode, okubalwa kubo iHunan Yuneng, iWanrun New Energy, iDefang Nano, kanye ne-Anda Technology, ngokulandelana benze izinhlelo zokugcinwa nokuncishiswa kokukhiqiza okuzohlala inyanga. Kungani leli hluko likhona lapho umkhakha wezinto ezisetshenziswa ngaphambili "ushisa" kanti umkhakha wezinto ezisetshenziswa phakathi "ubanda"? Ingabe isikhathi salokhu kuncishiswa kokukhiqiza kungukuhlangana noma ukwenza ngenhloso?

 

 

 

Ngomhla ziyi-26 kuZibandlela, amanani e-lithium carbonate afinyelele emaphakathini amasha. Kulolo suku, iGuangzhou Futures Exchange i-lithium carbonate main contract ibonakale iqinile ngaphezu kwe-130,000 CNY/ton, ifinyelela phezulu kosuku lwe-130,800 CNY/ton, okungukuphakama okusha cishe eminyakeni emibili, nokukhuphuka okuhlanganisiwe okungama-70% konyaka. Imakethe ye-spot ilandela eduze, amanani e-lithium carbonate we-battery-grade ekhuphuka ngokuhambisana, futhi ukuhweba emakethe kuqhubeka kukhulu.

Umshayeli oyinhloko oxhasa lo mjikelezo wokuhamba kwemakethe uthembisa ukwanda okukhulu kwesidingo. Imakethe yokugcina amandla isiphenduke injini entsha yokukhula. Ngokwedatha evela ku-GGII, ukuthunyelwa kwamabhethri e-lithium okugcina amandla e-China kulindeleke ukuthi kudlule ku-580 GWh ngo-2025, okwanda ngaphezu kuka-75% unyaka nonyaka. Phesheya kwezilwandle, i-U.S. "Big and Beautiful Act" eyathwetshulwa ngoJulayi isebenza njengesikhuthazo. Ukugwema imithelela yenqubomgomo ye-"izithiyo eziqinile kuma-Foreign Entities of Concern (FEOC)" kanye ne-"ukuqedwa kusenesikhathi kwezibonelelo zentela zamandla elanga/umoya" ngaphakathi koMthetho, abakhiqizi abafanele bayalufisa ukuqala ukwakhiwa zingakapheli zingama-2025 ukuze bavikele izibonelelo zamaphrojekthi. Ngaleso sikhathi, izinhlelo ezinkulu zamaphrojekthi okugcina amandla eYurophu, eSaudi Arabia, nakwezinye izifunda ziholele ekwanda okukhulu kwesidingo sokufakwa, okwaholela esimweni lapho amaselula amabhethri aphezulu "kunzima ukuwathola." Ngaphezu kwalokho, isidingo samabhethri amandla e-China sihlala siqinile. Kusukela ngoJanuwari kuya kuNovemba 2025, ukuthengiswa kwe-NEV yasekhaya kufinyelele izigidi ezingu-12.466, okwanda ngo-23.2% unyaka nonyaka, lapho ukungena emakethe kudlule khona umkhawulo ka-50% ngo-Okthoba futhi kuyaqhubeka nokukhula. Izinkampani zamabhethri zisebenza ngamandla aphelele, futhi abanye abakhiqizi bezimoto baze babeka abasebenzi ezimbonini zamabhethri ukulinda izimpahla ukuze baqinisekise ukutholakala.

Nokho, phakathi kwesimo esichumayo sezinto zokusetshenziswa ezishisayo phezulu kanye nama-oda ebhethri aqinile phansi, izinkampani ezine ezihamba phambili zezinto ze-LFP cathode emaphakathi kweketango lokukhiqiza ziye zanciphisa ukukhiqiza ngokuhlanganyela. Kusukela kusihlwa sangoDisemba 25 kuya ku-26, izinkampani ezinkulu ezine ze-LFP, okubalwa kuzo iHunan Yuneng, iWanrun New Energy, iDefang Nano, kanye ne-Anda Technology, ngokulandelana zikhiphe izimemezelo ezihlobene nokuncishiswa kokukhiqiza ukuze kulungiswe. Isikhathi sigxile ekupheleni kuka-2025 kuya ekuqaleni kuka-2026, nesikhathi sokulungisa inyanga eyodwa ngayinye. Phakathi kwazo, iWanrun New Energy ilindele ukunciphisa ukukhiqizwa kwe-LFP ngamathani angu-5,000 kuya ku-20,000; iHunan Yuneng ilindele ukunciphisa ukukhiqizwa kwezinto ze-phosphate cathode ngamathani angu-15,000 kuya ku-35,000; i-Anda Technology ilindele ukunciphisa ukukhiqizwa kwe-LFP ngamathani angu-3,000 kuya ku-5,000; iDefang Nano imemezele ukuthi ukulungiswa kwezinto ezithile kuzoqala ngoJanuwari 1, 2026, cishe inyanga eyodwa. Sekukonke, ngaphandle kweDefang Nano, isilinganiso sokuncishiswa kokukhiqiza esihlangene sezinkampani ezintathu sisukela kumathani angu-23,000 kuye ku-60,000. Isilinganiso esinjalo esivumelanisiwe sokuncishiswa kokukhiqiza siheha ukunakwa okukhulu kwemakethe.

 

 

 

Empeleni, umphumela oqondile futhi ongekho emthethweni walokhu kwenziwa kokugcinwa okuhlanganisiwe kuyidingo ethile yokugcinwa kwemishini ngemuva kokukhiqiza okuphelele isikhathi eside.

 

Kusukela ngo-2025, isidingo esikhulu sezimoto ezisebenzisa ugesi (NEVs) nokugcinwa kwamandla kuye kwadala ukwanda okukhulu kwesidingo se-LFP, kugcina izinga lokusebenzisa amandla ezinkampani ezihamba phambili lisengcupheni yokugcwala ngokweqile. Isimemezelo seHunan Yuneng sathi "izinga lokusebenzisa amandla lidlule ku-100% kusukela ekuqaleni konyaka," iWanrun New Energy yathi "imigqa yokukhiqiza i-LFP yenkampani ibisebenza ngokweqile kusukela ekupheleni konyaka," kanti iDefang Nano neAnda Technology nazo zibhekene nengcindezi yokulungiswa kwemishini ngenxa yokukhiqiza okuphezulu unyaka wonke. Ngokombono ojasayo, ukulungiswa kokuphela konyaka kuyindlela yomkhakha. Ukukhiqiza isikhathi eside ngokugcwele kukhulisa ukuguga kwemishini eyinhloko (njengama-reactor neziko lokushisa). Ukulungiswa njalo kuhlose ukuhlinzeka ngokugcinwa okudingekayo nokuguqulwa kobuchwepheshe ukuze kugwenywe ubungozi bokwehluleka futhi kuqinisekiswe ukukhiqiza okuzinzile nokusebenza kahle unyaka ozayo.

 

Nokho, abaphakathi embonini bathi ukugcinwa okuhlangene kwabenzi be-LFP kugqugquzelwa kakhulu ukufuna ukuhlela kabusha izinzuzo ngaphakathi kwentambo yemboni.

Njengoba iyona nto eyinhloko ekwenziweni kwe-LFP, amanani e-lithium carbonate aqhubeke nokukhuphuka kusukela ngoJuni 2025, amanani ezindawo ezithengiswayo ze-lithium carbonate esezingeni lebhethri akhuphuke kusuka ku-60,000 CNY/ton kuya ngaphezu kuka-120,000 CNY/ton, okwabe kwandisa izindleko zokukhiqiza izinto ezisetshenziswa kuma-cathode. Ngaleso sikhathi, izimali zokucubungula i-LFP sezihlale zicindezelwe ngaphansi kuka-15,000 CNY/ton, okungaphansi komugqa wezindleko ojwayelekile embonini (15,700 - 16,400 CNY/ton). Lo mphumela we-"scissors" wokuthi "izindleko zikhuphuka kodwa izimali zokucubungula zinganyakazi" ubangele ukulahlekelwa okubanzi phakathi kwezinkampani. Ezinyangeni ezintathu zokuqala zika-2025, inzuzo enkulu ye-Defang Nano yayingu -2.13%, kanti eyi-Wanrun New Energy yayingu-1.7% kuphela. Umuntu ofanele ovela enkampanini ye-LFP esohlwini uthe imboni ibilokhu ilahlekelwa cishe iminyaka emithathu ilandelana.

 

Ngokujulile, lokhu kubonisa ukungahambisani phakathi komjikelezo wamandla embonini nomjikelezo wesidingo. Ngemuva kwenkathi yokwanda eminyakeni edlule, kuye kwakheka umthamo omkhulu wokukhiqiza esigabeni sezinto ze-cathode. Lapho isidingo siphinde sikhula siqala ukubangela ukwenyuka okukhulu kwamanani ezinsiza ezingaphezulu, isigaba esimaphakathi, ngenxa yokuncintisana okunamandla namandla abuthakathaka okuxoxisana, sibona ukuthi umthamo waso omkhulu ukhulisa ukushaqeka kwezindleko, futhi inzuzo iyancipha kakhulu ekwabiweni kabusha komkhiqizo. Emkhakheni lapho amanani ezinto eziluhlaza eqhubeka nokukhuphuka kodwa ingcindezi yezindleko ingadluliselwa kahle phansi, ukukhiqiza kusho ukulahlekelwa. Ngakho-ke, ukuthatha isinyathelo sokunciphisa ukukhiqiza kuye kwaba ukukhetha okunengqondo kwezinkampani ukubhekana nokulahlekelwa nokunciphisa ukopha kwemali. Ukugcinwa okufana nesikhathi esisodwa yizinkampani ezihamba phambili kusungula ukuxhumanisa embonini, okuhloswe ukusekela amanani emakethe ngokunciphisa ukuhlinzekwa ngokuhlanganyela esikhathini esifushane. Ngaphansi kwezimo ezinjalo, ukunciphisa izinga lokusebenza kuguquka kusuka ekucindezelweni kokusebenza okungapheliyo kuya "kucebo" lokusebenza olusebenzayo - inhloso yalo eyinhloko ukudala isikhala esibalulekile sokuxoxisana ngamanani esikhathini esizayo ngokunciphisa ukuhlinzekwa ngezikhathi ezithile. Njengoba umholi wenhlangano yezimboni akuchazile, lesi "yisinyathelo sokugcina." Ngakho-ke, ukugcinwa okugxilile yizinkampani ezihamba phambili kuhloswe futhi ukuqinisa amathuluzi okuxoxisana ngamanani okunyusa amanani nabakhiqizi bamabhethri abaphansi. Kuyaqondakala ukuthi imboni isivele iqale umzuliswano wesibili wokunyusa amanani, nezingxenye ezinkulu ezihlela ukunyusa izimali zokucubungula ngo-2,000 kuye ku-3,000 CNY/ton. Uma ziqaliswa, lokhu kuzothuthukisa kakhulu inzuzo.

 

Le "isu" elibonakala lizimele empeleni lihambisana nezenzo ezingenhla. Muva nje, umvubuzi ongaphambili uTianqi Lithium, ebheke "ukuhlukana okungapheli nokubalulekile" phakathi kwezilinganiso ezijwayelekile ezivela kumapulatifomu afana ne-SMM namanani entengiso/esikhathini esizayo, okukholelwa ukuthi kuyinselele emisebenzini, iguqule isilinganiso sayo sokubeka amanani. Lokhu kubonisa ukulwa ukuze kufezwe uhlelo olulungile lokubeka amanani. Ukuncishiswa kokukhiqizwa okwenziwa izinkampani ezingaphakathi kuyimpendulo ezidingweni ezingenhla zokudluliswa kwezindleko. Izenzo ezibonakala zihlukile ezingenhla nasezingezansi ekugcineni ziyahlangana, zihlose ukukhuthaza ngokuhlanganyela ukubuyela kwamanani emikhiqizo ezingeni le "zindleko + inzuzo efanele."

 

 

 

Bheka phambili emkhubeni olandelayo wezintengo ze-lithium carbonate, ochwepheshe baphawula ukuthi imakethe izongena esigabeni esisha somdlalo onzima phakathi kwezinto ezikhuthazayo nezithuthukisayo. Kulindeleke ukuthi isikhungo sentengo sizoshintsha phezulu, kanti isakhiwo sangaphakathi sebhizinisi sithola ukuhlela kabusha. Izintengo zesikhashana zisathola ukwesekwa okuqinile ezicini eziningi ezibalulekile ezingeni lezimboni.

 

Izimboni zezinto ze-cathode ezinciphisa ukukhiqiza ukuze kusekelwe amanani kulindeleke ukuthi kube lula ukudluliswa kwezintengo zamatshe ezikhulayo. Ukuhlaziywa kwe-SMM kubonisa ukuthi yize izinkampani ezihamba phambili ze-LFP ziqale umzuliswano wesibili wezingxoxo zokukhuphula amanani muva nje, umzuliswano wokuqala weziningi zezimboni zezinto ezisetshenziswayo awukakaqedwa. Izimboni zamaseli ebhethri ezansi sezivume kabanzi ingcindezi eyethulwa ukukhuphuka kwamanani ezinto zokusetshenziswa, kodwa ukusebenza kwangempela kokukhuphuka kwamanani kusazobhekwa imiphumela yezingxoxo ezengeziwe. Uma ukukhuphuka kwamanani okuzolandela yizimboni zezinto ze-cathode kuqedwa, kuzoba nenzuzo kakhulu ekudlulisweni kwezintengo zamatshe ezikhulayo, kuvule isikhala esiphezulu. Ngaleso sikhathi, ukulungiswa kwe-Tianqi Lithium kwesilinganiso sayo sokubeka amanani kuphinde kuqinisekise isidingo esinamandla sezansi.

 

Ukuphakama okuphezulu komkhakha kuyaqhubeka, futhi izinto ezisele ze-lithium carbonate zihlala ziphansi njalo. Ngokwedatha yocwaningo oluvela ezimbonini zebhethri eziyi-20 eziphezulu yi-TD Tech, ukuhlelwa kokukhiqizwa kwemakethe yebhethri ye-lithium yaseChina (isitoreji samandla + amandla + abathengi) ngoJanuwari 2026 kungaba cishe u-210 GWh, ukwehla kwenyanga ngo-4.5%, okwenza kangcono kunokulindelekile kwemakethe. Ngokwedatha ye-SMM, inani lamasonto onke ezinto ezisele ze-lithium carbonate kusukela ngoDisemba 25, 2025, belingu-109,800 amathani, ukwehla kwenyanga ngo-652 amathani, okubeka isonto le-19 elilandelanayo lokudayisa izinto, kanti amazinga ezinto ezisele ashaye isikhathi esiphansi kusukela ngoFebhuwari 20, 2025.

 

Isidingo samandla agciniweyo naso siyakhulisa ukulindela, futhi imodeli yokuhlinzekwa nokufunwa kulindeleke ukuthi ithuthuke ngo-2026. Ngenxa yezindleko ezinciphayo, ukwanda okushukunyiswa yimigomo kwezintengo eziphakeme nezishintshayo, kanye nokwethulwa kwezintengo zamandla omthamo noma izimiso zokukhokhela kwezinye izifundazwe zasekhaya, izinga lokubuyisa amandla agciniweyo asekhaya kulindeleke ukuthi likhuphuke, ngaleyo ndlela lishukumise isidingo. Ngokwezibalo zeXinluo Consulting, ukuthunyelwa kwamabhethri e-lithium agciniweyo emhlabeni wonke kufinyelele ku-620 GWh ngo-2025, ukwanda konyaka ngo-77%, futhi kulindeleke ukuthi kufinyelele ku-960 GWh ngo-2026, ukwanda konyaka ngo-54.8%. Ngokombono wezindleko zemali, izindleko zemali ezinkampanini ezinkulu zomhlaba ezimayela i-lithium zibonise ukwehla okuyimpawu kusukela ngo-2024, okuhambisana nokwehla okungenzeka ekukhuleni kokuhlinzekwa kusuka kumaphrojekthi amasha noma anwetshiwe ngo-2026 kanye no-2027. Ukugcinwa kwamandla okuthatha indawo yezimoto zikagesi kulindeleke ukuthi kube umugqa wesibili wokukhula kwesidingo se-lithium, futhi imodeli yokuhlinzekwa nokufunwa kulindeleke ukuthi ithuthuke ngo-2026.

 

Nokho-ke, indawo yokunyakaza okukhulu okwengeziwe emintengweni nayo ingaphansi kwemikhawulo ecacile. Okokuqala, ukunwebeka kokuhlinzekwa kuzovela kancane kancane. Lapho amanani ezimpaqambeni ezinkulungwaneni eziyi-130,000 CNY/ton nangaphezulu, umdlandla wokuqalisa kabusha ukukhiqizwa kwamandla omngcele, njenge-mica (ukukhipha i-lithium ye-mica), eyayiyekisiwe ngaphambili ngenxa yezindleko eziphakeme, izokwanda, futhi ukungeniswa kwangaphandle kungase kwenyuke. Okwesibili, umphumela "wophahla" wokubekezelelwa kwabaphansi. Isimo esinzima samanje sezinkampani eziphakathi sesivele sikhale i-alamu. Uma amanani e-lithium eqhubeka nokukhuphuka ngokushesha nangokushesha, kuzodla kakhulu inzuzo yomkhakha wonke wokukhiqiza ophakathi kuya phansi futhi ekugcineni kuzobuyela emuva ekufuneni. Lo mshini wokubuyisela ongakhi uzovimbela ukwanda kwamanani.

Ngokuhlanganisa imibono yezikhungo, esikhathini esifushane, amanani e-lithium carbonate cishe azohlala ezingeni eliphezulu. Amaphuzu abalulekile okubuka umkhuba atholakala ezinhlelweni zokuhlela ukukhiqizwa kwezimboni ngoJanuwari 2026 kanye nokwamukelwa kwamanje amanani abasebenzisi bokugcina. Ngokwesikhathi eside, lo mjikelezo wokushintshashintsha ungase usheshise ukuthuthukiswa kwesakhiwo se-chain yomkhakha. Izinkampani ezinkulu zezinto ezibonakalayo ezinezinhlelo ezihlanganisiwe zezinsiza ze-lithium nokubopha okujulile kumakhasimende asezingeni eliphezulu zizobona amakhono azo okumelana nezingozi kanye nezinzuzo zezindleko ziba sobala kakhulu. Umkhakha wonke kulindeleke ukuthi usuke ekuncintiswaneni okulula okusekelwe kusayizi wokukhiqiza uye emqhudelwaneni obanzi wokuzinza kwe-supply chain, isivinini sokubuyekezwa kobuchwepheshe, namakhono okulawula izindleko. I-ecosystem ye-lithium battery enempilo futhi eqinile idinga ukusungulwa kwendlela efanele futhi esobala kakhudlwana yokwabelana ngezimpahla kanye nokwabelana ngezingozi phakathi kwabakhiqizi nabathengi.