Imibono Yemboni | Amanani E-Lithium Abuyela Ezingeni Eliphezulu, Ukuphumelela Nokuvuselelwa Kwemboni Yamabhethri Ngo-2026

Ekuqaleni kwesikota sesibili sika-2026, imboni yebhethri ye-lithium emhlabeni wonke ibhekene noshintsho olukhulu olubangelwa yizindleko. Uma kuqhathaniswa nasezansi zonyaka odlule, amanani e-lithium carbonate aphindeke kakhulu. Lokhu akusaseyona inkinga yesikhashana yokushoda nokudlula kwempahla kodwa kuyisibonakaliso sokuthi imboni isingenile “kwesijwayelekile esisha” sokusebenza ngezindleko eziphakeme.

Ubhekene nezindleko zezinto zokusetshenziswa ezikhuphukayo, abadlali abakhulu balandela isu elinezinhlangothi ezimbili:

Ngokwezinga lobuchwepheshe, amabhethri e-sodium-ion namabhethri e-semi-solid-state ayashesha ukungena ekukhiqizweni ngobuningi.

Ngokwezinga lemithetho, imithetho eqine kakhulu yokugaywa kabusha kwamabhethri kuze kube manje isiqalile ukusebenza, okwenza izimiso ezivalekile zibe yindawo entsha yokuncintisana.

Ngezansi kunokuhlaziywa kwethu okujulile kwale nyanga.

Singena ngo-2026, imakethe yamabhethri amandla ibonisa umehluko omkhulu.

Ngakolunye uhlangothi, isidingo sihlala siqine. Abakhiqizi bamabhethri abahamba phambili basebenza ngokugcwele, kanti abanye baze banqabe imiyalo engakhokhi ngokwanele kusengaphambili. Lesi sandise sokufunwa sihlela abadlali besigaba sesibili. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ukukhuphuka kwamanani e-lithium carbonate kubeka ingcindezi enkulu yezindleko kubakhiqizi bamabhethri abaphakathi.

Umbiko wakamuva ovela kwa-Wood Mackenzie uxwayisa ngokuthi ngaphandle kokutshalwa kwezimali okukhulu okusha, umhlaba ungabhekana nesikhala sokuhlinzekwa kwe-lithium kungakabiphi ngo-2028.

Kubathengi, inkathi yokubheka amanani kuphela iyaphela. Endaweni lapho amanani e-lithium ephezulu khona, ukuzinza kwezinto zokuhlinzeka kubaluleke kakhulu kunanoma yinini. Abahlinzeki abanekhono lokuhlanganisa izinsiza ezingaphezulu noma izinhlobonhlobo zobuchwepheshe (okungukuthi, abangaqine kuphela kumabhethri e-lithium) bazoba ukukhetha okuncanyelwayo kuma-OEM.

Uma amabhethri e-sodium 'ebikhulunywa kakhulu kodwa engabonakali' eminyakeni edlule, u-2026 ubukeka njengonyaka wokuqala wangempela wokwenza amabhethri e-sodium-ion.

Ukuqhubeka kwakamumva okuvela e-Institute of Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, kubonise ukuthi amabhethri e-ampere-hour sodium-ion angakwazi ukuqeda ngokuphelele ubungozi bokubaleka kokushisa, okuxazulula inkinga enkulu yokuphepha. Phakathi naleso sikhathi, abadlali abakhulu njenge-CATL ne-EVE Energy bakhulule imikhiqizo yamabhethri e-sodium ekhiqizwe ngobuningi — kusukela ezinguqulweni zezimoto zokuhweba ezisebenza ezingeni lokushisa eliphansi kuya ezinhlelweni ezinkulu zokugcina amandla. Amabhethri e-sodium ayasuka kumafayela ezithombe aya emgqa wokukhiqiza.

Izindleko zamanje zokukhiqiza amabhethri e-sodium zingaba ngu-RMB 0.5–0.6/Wh, kusengaphezu kwe-RMB 0.4/Wh ye-lithium. Kodwa-ke, ochwepheshe bemboni balindele ukuthi izindleko zizofana ngo-2027. Ngaleso sikhathi, amabhethri e-sodium — ngokuphepha kwawo okungcono kakhulu nokusebenza ezingeni lokushisa eliphansi — azoba isengezo esinamandla kumabhethri e-lithium ekugcinweni kwamandla nasezimoto ezinezithuthuthu.

NgoJulayi 1 usondela, indinganiso kazwelonke eyimpoqo yamabhethri e-electric vehicle traction batteries (GB38031-2025) izoqala ukusebenza.

Lokhu akuyona nje inkinga enkulu yokuphepha kwamabhethri kodwa futhi kuphakamisa ibha yezobuchwepheshe. Isandard esisha sicindezela imboni ukuthi iphumelele ezincintiswaneni ezingezona ezokuncintisana ngentengo ephansi ezibuyela emuva, ibheke ezincintiswaneni eziholwa yinzuzo. Amabhethri asanda kwembulwa — njengebhethri le-4.8V eliphezulu le-nickel-manganese-lithium ye-Yuanxing Energy — abonise "ukuphepha kwangaphakathi" ngokudlula izivivinyo zokungena izipikili ngaphandle kokuvutha noma ukuqhuma.

Umncintiswano webhethri yesikhathi esizayo ngeke usaba ngobubanzi bokuhamba, kodwa ngokuphathelene nokulinganisa amandla aphezulu kagesi ngokuphepha okuphelele.

Emhlabeni onomkhawulo wezinsiza, ukumba emadolobheni kuye kwaba umthombo wegolide wangempela.

Ngo-Ephreli 1, 2026, i-"Administrative Measures for Recycling and Comprehensive Utilization of Waste Power Batteries from New Energy Vehicles" entsha yaqala ukusebenza ngokusemthethweni. Ngokushesha ngemva kwalokho, inkundla kazwelonke yokulandelela amabhethri amandla e-NEV yethulwa, okwakubeka isiqalo se-"2.0 era" yaseChina yokuphathwa kokugaywa kabusha kwamabhethri.

Lokhu akugcini nje kumabhethri e-EV. Ngesitoko esikhulu sezithuthuthu zikagesi, i-MIIT kanye ne-All China Federation of Supply and Marketing Cooperatives bahlanganyele ukukhipha imihlahlandlela yokulawula ukugaywa kabusha kwamabhethri e-lithium, besebenzisa inethiwekhi enkulu yokuqoqa esezingeni eliphansi ukuze kuvinjwe amabhethri adala ukuthi angangeni eziteshini ezingekho emthethweni.

Amakhasimende aphesheya kwezilwandle — ikakhulukazi eYurophu naseNyakatho Melika, lapho i-ESG iyinto ebaluleke kakhulu — ukuthuthwa kwamabhethri ngekhabhoni kanye nomthwalo wokugaywa kabusha kuyizidingo eziyinhloko. Lolu shintsho olusha lwesistimu yokugaywa kabusha yaseChina luhlinzeka ngosekelo oluqinile amabhethri athunyelwa kwamanye amazwe ahlose ukuhlangabezana nokuhambisana nomjikelezo ogcwele.

Ngaphandle kwezinselelo zezombangazwe, ukuthunyelwa kwamabhethri aseChina kwethule imiphumela emangalisayo ngo-2025. Ngenkathi ivolumu yokuthunyelwa kwangaphandle ihlala cishe ifana, inani lokuthunyelwa kwangaphandle likhuphuke ngo-22.8% lafinyelela ku-USD 82.28 billion.

Le datha libonisa ngokucacile ukuthi imboni yebhethri yaseChina iyayilahla ilebula elithi “intengo ephansi, ivolumu ephezulu”. Ngokusebenzisa ubuchwepheshe be-LFP, i-sodium-ion, kanye nobhethri elizayo eliqinile, iChina izibeke ngokuqinile esigabeni esimaphakathi kuya phezulu somkhiqizo womhlaba wonke. Umbukiso webhethri ozayo we-CIBF 2026 e-Shenzhen ngoMeyi kulindeleke ukuthi uhehe ababonisi abangaphezu kuka-3,100 abavela emhlabeni wonke — iwindi eliyinhloko lokubona isizukulwane esilandelayo sobuchwepheshe bebhethri.

Imboni yebhethri ka-2026 ibukeka njengenkundla “yezibindi”. Izindleko ezikhulayo zezinsiza ezingaphezulu ziyasusa abadlali ababuthakathaka ababebheke izibonelelo eziphansi, kuyilapho ubuchwepheshe obusha (i-sodium, i-solid-state, ukugaywa kabusha) buvula amathrekhi amasha ayizigidi zezigidi kubalungile.

I-EBAK izoqhubeka nokuqapha ukuthuthukiswa kwemboni futhi ikulethele ulwazi olufanele kakhulu lwezinto zokuhlinzeka.