Ukushoda kokugcina amandla, Izimpawu ze-Solid-State & Ukuphuma kwe-Sodium-Ion — Uhlolojikelele Lwebhethri ye-Lithium ka-Ephreli 2026

Kusukela ekuqaleni kuka-2026, umkhakha wamabhethri e-lithium ugcine ugijime kakhulu, ugqugquzelwa isidingo esikhulu sokugcina amandla, ukusheshisa ukwenziwa kwamabhethri aqinile, kanye nokukhiqizwa ngobuningi kwamabhethri e-sodium-ion okuzayo.

Imakethe yokugcina amandla ibone ukwanda okungakaze kubonwe ngoQ1, yehlula izindlela zokungabi nenkathi yayo. Ngokwedatha ye-GGII, ukuthunyelwa kwamabhethri e-lithium okugcina amandla e-China kufinyelele ku-215 GWh ngoQ1 2026, kwanda ngo-139% unyaka nonyaka. Abakhiqizi abahamba phambili basebenza ngokugcwele, ngama-oda ahlelelwe kuze kube sekupheleni kuka-2026 noma kuze kube uQ2 2027. Ukushoda okuqinile kukhulise amanani amakholomu ajwayelekile e-314Ah LFP kusuka ku-0.26~0.31 RMB/Wh ekupheleni kuka-2025 kuya ku-0.36~0.39 RMB/Wh, okumele ukwanda okungu-25%~35%, nabanye abakhiqizi abacaphuna ngaphezu kuka-0.4 RMB/Wh.

Lokhu kukhula kuqhutshwa ukushintsha okuyisisekelo esidingweni semakethe. Ekhaya, ukugcina amandla kuye kwadlulela ekusetshenzisweni okuyalwe umthetho kuya ekwamukelweni okushukumiswe yimakethe. Emhlabeni wonke, i-BloombergNEF ibikezela ukukhula okungu-33% ekusetshenzisweni kwamandla agcinwe endaweni ngo-2026, lapho iYurophu, iMiddle East, neLatin America zisebenza njengezinjini ezinkulu zokukhula.

Amanani e-lithium carbonate angenile esigabeni esibanzi sokuhlanganiswa ngemva kokukhuphuka kokuqala konyaka, amanani asheshayo azinzile cishe ku-155,000 RMB/ton nezinkontileka ezizayo zithengiswa phakathi kuka-140,000 no-170,000 RMB/ton. Uma kuqhathaniswa nesikhathi esifanayo ngo-2025, isikhungo samanani siye sahamba ngokucacile phezulu, okubonisa ukuthi imboni iphume kancane esigabeni esinzima. I-Deutsche Bank iphawule ukuthi amanani e-lithium carbonate aseShayina aphakathi kuka-$21,695/ton ngoQ1 2026, okwanda ngo-71% uma kuqhathaniswa nekota edlule.

Umkhakha wamabhethri e-solid-state ubone intuthuko esheshayo. Ngomhla ka-16 kuMbasa, i-Enpower Energy yethule ngokusemthethweni isisekelo sayo sokukhiqiza samabhethri e-solid-state angu-2 GWh eSifundazweni sase-Anhui, yethula uchungechunge lwe-"Enpower Rock" lwezithuthuthu zikagesi ezisezingeni eliphezulu kanye nezicelo zokushintsha amabhethri.. Inkampani ye-GAC ekhuliswe yi-Greater Bay Technology yengeze ukukhiqizwa ngempumelelo kwamajelo ayo e-all-solid-state battery A-sample, okuhlosiwe ukukhiqizwa ngobuningi ezingeni le-GWh phakathi no-2026 nge-energy density efika ku-260-500 Wh/kg..

Ezimakethe eziyinhloko-dolobha, i-Qingtao Energy yethule isicelo sayo se-IPO yaseHong Kong ngo-Ephreli, ihlose ukuba yinkampani yokuqala emhlabeni wonke eyohweba ngebhethri eliqinile, enenani elingu-27.9 billion RMB. Ukuvumelana komkhakha kubeka u-2027 njengesikhathi esigxilile sokuqinisekiswa kwezimoto ezincane zamabhethri aqinile, kanti ukuthengiswa okukhulu kulindeleke ukuthi kube ngasekupheleni kuka-2030.

Ngo-Ephreli 21, i-CATL yethule imikhiqizo emihlanu yebhethri entsha kulo lonke uhlu lwayo lwamachemikhali kanye nesixazululo esibanzi senethiwekhi yokushaja emcimbini wayo we-"Super Tech Day". Ibhethri yesizukulwane sesithathu i-Shenxing ultra-fast charging ifinyelela ukushajwa kusuka ku-10% kuye ku-98% emaminithini angu-6 nemizuzwana engu-27 kuphela; ibhethri yesizukulwane sesithathu i-Kirin idlula ibanga elingu-1,000 km; futhi ibhethri i-Kirin Condensed iletha ubuchwepheshe bebhethri lezindiza ezindizayo ezimotweni zabagibeli okokuqala ngqa, ifinyelela ibanga elifika ku-1,500 km. I-CATL iphinde yamemezela ukuthi amabhethri e-sodium-ion azongena ekukhiqizeni ngobuningi ku-Q4 2026, ngemva kokunqoba izithiyo ezinkulu ezine zemboni.

Ekuqaleni kukaMashi, i-BYD yethule isizukulwane sayo sesibili sebhethri le-Blade nobuchwepheshe bokushaja okusheshayo, yafinyelela ukushaja kusuka ku-10% kuye ku-97% emizuzwini engu-9 ezingeni lokushisa lokujwayelekile kanye nebanga eliphezulu lama-km angu-1,036, ngohlelo lokufaka iziteshi zokushaja ezisheshayo ezingu-20,000 ngaphambi kokuphela konyaka..

Amanani aphezulu e-lithium asheshise ushintsho olubheke kwezinye izindlela ezisekelwe ku-sodium. I-CATL ihlela ukufakwa kwamabhethri e-sodium ngobukhulu ezindaweni ezifana nokushintsha amabhethri, izimoto zabagibeli, izimoto zezimboni, kanye nokugcinwa kwamandla.. Ibhethri lesizukulwane sesithathu se-sodium se-BYD seluqedile ukukhiqizwa kwezibonelo ezincane zezimoto zikagesi ezingeni eliphansi kanye nezicelo zokugcinwa kwamandla.. Izibikezelo zemboni zibikezela ukufakwa kwamabhethri e-sodium emhlabeni wonke kudlula ama-GWh angu-50 ngo-2026, okubeka isiqalo separadigm entsha yamandla "e-sodium-lithium parallel"..

Imboni yebhethri ye-lithium njengamanje isesigabeni "sokuhlinzekwa nokufunwa okuqinile". Ukukhula okuqinile kokugcinwa kwamandla, ukusheshisa ukusetshenziswa kobuchwepheshe be-solid-state ne-sodium-ion, nokuqinisekiswa okungaguquki kokusebenza okuvela ezinkampanini ezihamba phambili kunikeza ukwesekwa okuqinile okuyisisekelo. Phakathi naleso sikhathi, izinto zangaphandle ezifana nokulungiswa kwenqubomgomo yokubuyiselwa kwentela yokuthekelisa, ukuntengantenga kwentengo yezinto zokusetshenziswa, nezingozi zezombangazwe zidinga ukunakwa kakhulu. Ngaphansi kwesimo sokuguquguquka kwamandla emhlabeni wonke, izinhlelo zesikhathi eside zemboni yebhethri ye-lithium zihlala zithembisa kakhulu.