Imboni Yamabhethri Le-Lithium Iyabuyela: Ukwanda Okungu-139% Kokugcinwa kanye Nokuphindeka Kabili Kwentengo Ye-Lithium NgoQ1 2026

Ngokwe-GGII, ukuthunyelwa kwamabhethri elithiyamu okugcina amandla eChina kufinyelele ku-215 GWh ngoQ1 2026, kwenyuka ngo-139% unyaka nonyaka. Abakhiqizi abahamba phambili basebenza cishe ngokugcwele, kanti iziqephu zama-oda ngokuvamile zidlulela ekupheleni kuka-2026 noma kuze kube uQ2 2027. Imboni ibona isimo esingakaze sibonwe "semali esandleni kodwa kungabikho amaselula atholakalayo".

I-lithium carbonate yebanga lebhethri ibuyele phezulu kakhulu kusuka kwaphansi kakh historical kwama-RMB 75,000/MT ekupheleni kuka-2024, iphindeka kabili yafinyelela kuma-RMB 150,000–160,000/MT ngo-Q2 2026. Amanani e-spot ayengama-RMB 155,000/MT kusukela ngo-Ephreli 10.

Amanani amaseli ajwayelekile e-314Ah LFP akhuphuke kusuka kuma-RMB 0.26–0.31/Wh ekupheleni kuka-2025 aya kuma-RMB 0.36–0.39/Wh, nabanye abahlinzeki be-Tier-1 abacaphuna ngaphezu kwama-RMB 0.40/Wh — ukwanda okungu-25%–35%.

I-China's lithium battery market production schedule kulindeleke ukuthi ibe cishe ama-235 GWh ngo-Ephreli 2026, ikhuphuke ngo-7.3% MoM, namaseli okugcina amandla abalelwa ku-41.3% yenani lonke.

Imali engenayo ye-Q1 2026 yafinyelela ku-RMB 129.13 billion (+52.45% YoY); inzuzo net RMB 20.74 billion (+48.52% YoY); ukudayiswa kwamabhethri amandla ahlanganisiwe kanye nokugcina amandla kudlule ku-200 GWh, kanti isabelo sokugcina sikhule saba ngu-25%. I-CATL ibambe isabelo esingu-45.2% emakethe yebhethri ye-EV emhlabeni wonke ngama-32.5 GWh afakiwe. Ngomhla zingama-21 kuMbasa, i-CATL yenze i-“Super Technology Day” yayo, yethula imikhiqizo emisha eminingi okubalwa kuyo ibhethri elisha elisheshayo elingu-3rd-gen Shenxing kanye nebhethri le-Qilin condensed-state.

Kungezwe ugesi omusha ongu-70 GWh ngo-2026, okwenze isamba saba ngaphezu kuka-300 GWh. Ukuthekelisa kwezimoto ezintsha (NEV) ngekota yokuqala kukhuphuke ngo-51.5% unyaka nonyaka. Kusayinwe isivumelwano sokugcina amandla angu-2.6 GWh eChile.

Kuqediwe umugqa wokukhiqiza izibhamu eziqinile ezisebenzisa izimoto, nezinhlelo zokulethwa ngobuningi ngesikali samayunithi ayinkulungwane ngekota yesine ka-2026. Amandla afakiwe ngekota yokuqala athole ukukhula okuhle, abeka isivinini esikhulu phakathi kweziyi-10 eziphezulu.

Kulindeleke ukuthi kuqale ukulethwa okwezingxenye zamabhethri amasha e-sodium-ion ezinhlelo zokugcina amandla kanye nezicelo zamandla alula ekupheleni kuka-2026. Kuma-solid-state, kwethulwe imikhiqizo ethi “Longquan III” kanye “Longquan IV” ngo-Mashi 2026, kanti ukukhiqizwa okuncane kulindeleke ngo-2027.

Ikhomishini YaseYurophu yethule i-Battery Booster Strategy, ehlanganisa yonke imikhiqizo kusukela ezintweni ezingavuthiwe kuya ekukhiqizeni amaseli kanye nokugaywa kabusha, okuhlose ukuguqula imboni yebhethri ye-EU.

Kusukela ngoFebruwari 18, 2027, amabhetri ashajekayo ezimbonini nawama-EV anomthamo ongaphezu kwa-2 kWh angena emakethe ye-EU kufanele athwale iphasipoti yedijithali yebhetri, echaza ukwakheka kwezinto, umkhondo wekhabhoni, nolwazi lwe-supply chain.

I-EU ibuyekeze Uhlu lwayo lwamakhodi emfucuza amabhetri, okuyimpoqo kusukela ngoNovemba 9, 2026, iqinisa ukuhlonza nokulandelelwa kwezimpahla zamabhetri eziwela imingcele. I-black mass ihlukaniswa njengemfucuza enobungozi, ngokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe angaphandle kwe-OECD kunqatshelwe.

Kusukela ngo-Ephreli 1, 2026, izinga lesaphulelo sentela yokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kwe-VAT lemikhiqizo yamabhetri kuncishiswe lisuka ku-9% laya ku-6%, ngokukhanselwa ngokuphelele okuhlelelwe u-2027 — okuhloswe ukuvimbela ukuncintisana okubulalayo kwamanani nokukhuthaza ukuthuthukiswa kwekhwalithi ephezulu.

Unyaka ka-2026 ubhekwa kabanzi njengonyaka obalulekile ekwenziweni kwezibhethri ze-solid-state zibe ezokuhweba. Ibhethri ye-CATL esekelwe ku-sulfide, i-all-solid-state battery, idlule ku-500 Wh/kg; i-CALB iqedele umugqa wokukhiqiza we-all-solid-state webanga lezimoto; i-BYD yaqala umugqa wezibhethri ze-solid-state ezingu-20 GWh eChongqing. Imboni ilindele ukuthi ukukhiqizwa okuncane ngobuningi kanye nokubonisa izimoto kuqale phakathi kuka-2026 no-2027.

Ibhethri ye-CATL ethi “NaXin” ye-sodium-ion izongena ekukhiqizeni ngobuningi kulo nyaka, lapho amandla ebhethri ezofinyelela ku-175 Wh/kg, isekela ibanga le-BEV elingaphezu kuka-400 km. Ukuthunyelwa kwezibhethri ze-sodium emhlabeni wonke kufinyelele ku-9 GWh ngo-2025, kukhuphuke ngo-150% unyaka nonyaka. Ithimba le-Chinese Academy of Sciences lakha ibhethri ye-sodium-ion ethi “zero thermal runaway” edlule izivivinyo zokubhoboza ngomshini kanye nezinga lokushisa elingu-300°C, nemiphumela ishicilelwe ku-Nature Energy.

Imakethe yokugcina amandla yase-China isuka ezimisweni zokufakwa eziyisibopho iye ekukhuleni okushukumiswa imakethe kagesi. Izindlela zokukhokhela amandla e-Inner Mongolia kanye nokushintshashintsha kwamanani emakethe kagesi esikhotheni zinikeza izinzuzo eziphakeme, ezizinzile kumaphrojekthi okugcina amandla. Ukugcina amandla kuguquka kusuka ku-"umthwalo wezindleko" kuya ku-"isikhungo senani" samasistimu kagesi.

Abaholi bezibhamu zaseShayina basheshisa ukwakhiwa kwezifemisi zangaphandle, izisekelo eYurophu naseNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia ziqala ukusebenza futhi isabelo samandla amasha angaphandle siyanda. Izinkampani zaseShayina zenza izimpumelelo eziningi ezimakethe zokugcina amandla angaphandle, i-CALB phakathi kwezinye izimemezela cishe i-1 GWh yama-oda angaphandle ngosuku olulodwa.

I-UBS ibikezela ukukhula kwesidingo selithiyamu ngo-14% ngo-2026, kanti ukushoda kokuhlinzekwa kulindeleke ukuthi kuqhubeke kuze kube ngu-2027. Izinga lokusetshenziswa kwamandla abakhiqizi abahamba phambili selibuyele ku-90%, libuyisa imakethe ekulinganiseni okuqinile.

Imithombo yedatha: GGII, SNE Research, SMM, InfoLink, East Money, China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, nolunye ulwazi olutholakala esidlangaleni.