Umbono Womkhakha: Imboni Yamabhethri E-Lithium Iyabuyela Ngamandla, u-2026 Ubeka Ukuphuma Kwenzuzo Nokukhiqizwa Kobuchwepheshe Okukhulu

Njengoba ikota yokuqala ka-2026 iphela, imboni yebhethri ye-lithium emhlabeni wonke ilethe umbiko omangalisayo. Ngemuva kweminyaka yokulungiswa okujikelezayo, imboni ifinyelele endaweni yokuguquguquka eholela "ekukhuphukeni okujikelezayo". Kusukela ezintweni ezingavuthiwe kuya ekwenziweni kwamangqamuzana, abadlali abasemqoka kulo lonke uchungechunge lokuhlinzekwa abagcinanga nje ngokuthola ukukhula kwemali engenayo kodwa futhi babonise ukumelana namandla okwenza inzuzo. Ngokusekelwe emibikweni yakamuva yocwaningo kanye nezenzo zakamuva ezithathwe izinkampani ezihamba phambili, sikholelwa ukuthi imboni yebhethri ye-lithium isiqale isigaba esisha sokuthuthukiswa kwekhwalithi ephezulu.

Kwikota yokuqala yalo nyaka, ukusebenza okupheleleyo kwesigaba sebhetri ye-lithium kudlule izinto ezibelindelekileyo zemakethe. Sithatha umkhulu weshishini i-CATL njengesibonelo, umbiko wayo we-Q1 2026 ubonise ingeniso yokusebenza ye-129.131 billion RMB, ukwanda konyaka nonyaka okungu-52.45%, kunye nenzuzo yenethi ethembekileyo enkampanini engumzali ye-20.738 billion RMB, ikhuphuke ngo-48.52% unyaka nonyaka. Lokhu kukhula okuphezulu akuyona into eyodwa. Ucwaningo lweHuaTai Securities lubonisa ukuthi ukukhula kwenzuzo yenethi yonyaka nonyaka kwezinkampani ezisohlwini ezixhunywe kusampula yebhetri ye-lithium konke kudlule u-40%, nezigaba ezithile ezifana ne-Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP) cathodes kunye ne-electrolytes ezibona ukukhula kudlule u-200% ngenxa yokunyuka kwamaxabiso kunye nentuthuko yesilinganiso sokusetshenziswa.

Ubuchwepheshe obusha buyinjini eyinhloko ehola leli jikelele elinyukayo.

Ibhetri yesi-5 ye-Gotion High-Tech: Phakathi kukaMeyi, i-Gotion High-Tech izokwethula ibhetri yayo yesi-5 ye-LFP yazo zonke izimo esithangamini sezobuchwepheshe somhlaba wonke e-Hefei. Lobu buchwepheshe bufinyelela ukuminyana kwamandla kufika ku-205Wh/kg, nohlobo olushaja ngokushesha kakhulu lufinyelela isivinini esimangalisayo sokushaja kusuka ku-10% kuye ku-70% ngaphansi kwemizuzu engu-4.5, nohlobo oluhlala isikhathi eside olusekela iminyaka engu-30 yezicelo zokugcina amandla. Lobu buchwepheshe buhlanganisa zonke izimo kusuka ezimotweni zabagibeli nezimoto zezimboni kuya ezimotweni ezindizayo eziphansi, okubeka omunye umzamo omkhulu endleleni yobuchwepheshe be-LFP.

Ukukhawuleza kwe-Solid-State/Half-Solid-State: Ngaphandle kokuthuthukiswa kwamabhethri olwamanzi, ukwenziwa kwezimboni kwamabhethri e-solid-state kuyakhawuleza. Ibhethri ye-CATL's Condensed Battery namabhethri e-Qingtao Energy's semi-solid angenile esigabeni sokufakwa ezimotweni noma sokukhiqizwa ngobuningi, okubonisa ukuthi ubuchwepheshe bamabhethri esizukulwane esilandelayo buyasuka elabhorethri buyobhekana nemakethe.

Uma sibheka isimo somhlaba wonke, ukuncintisana nokubambisana embonini yamabhethri e-lithium kuyafana.

I-LG Energy Solution & iBMW Isivumelwano Esikhulu: Muva nje, i-LG Energy Solution yaqinisekisa ukuthi ithole i-oda lephrojekthi yebhethri eyindilinga elibalelwa ku-10 trillion KRW (cishe i-53 billion RMB). Abaningi embonini bakholelwa ukuthi leli oda lizohlinzeka izimoto zikagesi ezilandelayo ze-BMW. Lesi sivumelwano sokuhlinzeka esihlala iminyaka eyi-10 asigcini nje ngokuvikela amandla amakhulu okukhiqiza esikhathini esizayo kodwa futhi siqinisekisa indima eyinhloko yamabhethri ayindilinga (uchungechunge lwe-46) emakethe ye-EV ephakeme.

Umdlalo Wezinsiza Ze-Lithium Uyaqhubeka: Yize intengo yamanje ye-lithium carbonate yebhethri izinzile cishe ku-170,000 RMB/ton, ukubuyela emuva okukhulu kusuka kumazinga aphansi onyaka odlule, abakhiqizi bezimoto emhlabeni wonke basajaha ukuthola izinsiza ezingaphezulu (ezaziwa ngokuthi "Igolide Elimhlophe"). I-GM ne-Ford zitshala ezinkampanini ezimayini noma zisayina izivumelwano zesikhathi eside ukuze ziqinisekise ukuhlinzekwa, okugcizelela ukubaluleka kwezinguquko zokuthola izinto ezingavuthiwe emqhudelwaneni wemboni.

Esimeni yesikhashana, izinhlelo zokukhiqiza zangoMeyi ziqine kakhulu. Ngokwedatha ye-ICC evela ku-ICC, izinkampani zamabhethri ezisampula zikhombisa ukwanda kwenyanga nenyanga okungu-8.1% ezinhlelweni zokukhiqiza zangoMeyi, okubonisa ukwanda kwesidingo. Ngesidingo esiqinile sokugcinwa kwamandla kanye namanani aphezulu kawoyela akhuthaza ukusetshenziswa kukagesi kwamanye amazwe, ukuhlinzekwa nokufunwa kulo lonke uchungechunge lwamabhethri e-lithium kucishe kube nzima. Sibheke ngabomvu kuleli jikelele elinyukayo elishukunyiswa ukubuyiselwa kwesidingo kanye nentuthuko yezobuchwepheshe obusha.