Isibuyekezo Semboni Yamabhethri E-Lithium – Meyi 2026: Igagasi Lokwanda, Ukululama Kwezintengo, kanye Nokuphumelela Kobuchwepheshe

Njengoba u-2026 usungena, imboni yebhethri le-lithium emhlabeni wonke ibhekene nokululama okubalulekile okujikelezayo. Kusukela ekwandeni okusheshayo nasekukhuphukeni okuqinile kwamanani ezinto zokusetshenziswa kuze kube yizinto ezibalulekile ezitholakala kubuchwepheshe bebhethri le-solid-state, izimpawu eziningi zikhombisa ukuqala kwesigaba esisha sokukhula.

Ngemuva kweminyaka emibili yokulungiswa okujulile nokwenza kahle kwamandla, uchungechunge lokuhlinzekwa kwebhethri le-lithium laseChina lungena egagwini elisha lokwandiswa. Kusukela ngo-Ephreli, izinkampani eziningi ezisohlwini lwe-A-share zebhethri le-lithium ziveze izimemezelo zokwandiswa kwamandla, ezihlanganisa izinsimbi ze-lithium ezingaphezulu, izinto eziphakathi, nokukhiqizwa kwebhethri okungaphansi.

Ngokungafani nokwanda okungacabangi kahle kweminyaka emibili kuya kwemithathu eyedlule, abaqaphi bemakethe ngokuvamile babona le nkathi njengengokwengqondo kakhudlwana, esekelwa ukuthuthukiswa kwezidingo nezokunikezwa, ukuthuthukiswa kwezidingo ezakhiweni, kanye nokuguqulwa kwesimo samaphuzu esikhathini sonke. Amaphrojekthi avelele ahlanganisa isikhungo sikaPutailai esingu-RMB 5.6 billion samahlukanisi ebhethri le-lithium, ukutshalwa kwezimali kukaDefang Nano okungaba ngu-RMB 8.7 billion emgqeni wokukhiqiza izinto ze-phosphate cathode, kanye nokukhuphuka kwezimali kukaSinomine Resource Group okungu-RMB 5.2 billion ekuthuthukisweni kwezinsiza zemaminerali ze-lithium, copper, kanye ne-cesium-rubidium.

Abahlalisi baqaphela ukuthi ukwanda kwamanje akukona konke kodwa kunokuhlukana kwezinto ezakhiwe. Ngenkathi amandla aphansi noma asezingeni eliphansi angase abhekane nengcindezi enkulu, amaselula okugcina amandla aphezulu, izinto eziphezulu ze-nickel ternary, namandla aphezulu aqondise izimakethe zaphesheya kwezilwandle ahlala enesidingo esikhulu.

Kusukela ekuqaleni kuka-2026, izintengo ze-lithium carbonate ziye zenyuka phakathi nokushintshashintsha okuphindaphindiwe. Ngomhla ka-Meyi 11, isivumelwano esihwebelana kakhulu se-lithium carbonate ku-Guangzhou Futures Exchange saphula umkhawulo we-RMB 200,000/ton, okumele ukwanda okungaphezu kuka-250% kusukela ezingeni eliphansi kakhulu le-RMB 58,400/ton cishe unyaka odlule kanye cishe u-70% kusukela ekuqaleni kuka-2026.

Ukwenyuka kwentengo kuqhutshwe izinto eziningi ohlangothini lokuhlinzekwa kanye nokufunwa. Ohlangothini lokufunwa, ukugcinwa kwamandla kudlule kakhulu okulindelekile futhi kwavela njengesishukumisi esiyinhloko sokukhula kwesidingo selithiyamu. Ohlangothini lokuhlinzekwa, ukuphazamiseka okuqhubekayo—okuhlanganisa ukumiswa kwezimayela eziningana zelithiyamu esifundazweni saseYichun, eJiangxi ngenxa yokuvuselela izincwadi zezimayela, kanye nokulungiswa kwezinqubomgomo ezithinta ukuthunyelwa kwamatshe elithiyamu eZimbabwe—kuqinise izimo zemakethe. Izikhungo eziningi zibikezela ukuthi ibhalansi yokuhlinzekwa nokufunwa kwe-lithium carbonate izohlala isezingeni eliqinile kuze kube u-2026.

Imakethe yebhethri yokugcina amandla iyaqhubeka nokushisa. Ngokwezibalo, ukuthunyelwa kwamabhethri e-lithium okugcina amandla e-China kufinyelele ku-215 GWh okumangalisayo ngoQ1 2026, kwenyuka ngo-139% unyaka nonyaka. Abakhiqizi abahamba phambili basebenza cishe ngokugcwele, nezinga leziyalezo eligcwele ngokuvamile kuze kube sekupheleni kuka-2026 noma ngisho nase-Q2 2027.

E-CIBF 2026 (iNgqungquthela Yomhlaba Wonke Yezobuchwepheshe Bebhethri Yase-Shenzhen ye-18 kanye Nombukiso) esanda kuphela, izindawo ezibukisa ngezinto zokugcina amandla zikhanga kakhulu kunezinye izindawo. Ababonisi babike ukuthi ngenkathi amakhasimende ekhathazeke kakhulu ngamanani entengo emcimbini wangonyaka odlule, izikhathi zokulethwa sezibe yinto ebaluleke kakhulu kulo nyaka. UProfesa Ouyang Minggao waseTsinghua University uphawule emcimbini ukuthi intengo ejwayelekile yebhidi eliphumelelayo yamabhethri okugcina amandla amahora angu-4 yehlile isingaphansi kwe-RMB 500/kWh, futhi ngokwelulwa kwesikhathi sokugcina, lo mkhakha ulungele isikhathi samathuba amakhulu eminyakeni emihlanu ezayo.

Ubuchwepheshe bamabhethri e-solid-state bukhawulezisa ukuguqukela kwawo kusuka elabhorethri kuya ekwenziweni kwezimboni. Ochwepheshe bemboni nezinkampani ezihamba phambili bashaye isivumelwano sokuthi u-2026 cishe uzoba "unyaka wokuqala" wamabhethri e-semi-solid-state.

Ngokwezobuchwepheshe, ososayensi abavela e-Institute of Metal Research e-Chinese Academy of Sciences muva nje bathole impumelelo ekunqobeni ukungahambisani kwe-polymer-plasticizer. Amabhethri e-lithium metal esezingeni eliphezulu alandela lokhu abonise ukusebenza okukhethekile: lapho ihlanganiswa ne-cathode ye-high-nickel engu-4.7V, ibhethri lihambe kahle imizuliswano engu-700 kumazinga aphezulu kakhulu angu-20C (alingana nokushajwa nokukhipha ngokuphelele ngemizuzu emithathu), igcina u-81.9% wamandla ayo, kanti amaselula esikhwama esilinganiselwe ku-ampere-hour athole amandla angu-451.5 Wh/kg.

Ngokwezinkampani, iGotion High-Tech imemezele izinhlelo zokufinyelela amandla okukhiqiza amathani angu-300 ngonyaka we-lithium sulfide ngo-2026, okuzokhuphuka kufike kumathani angu-20,000 ngonyaka ngo-2027 namathani angu-50,000 ngonyaka ngo-2030, ukuze kusekelwe isidingo esikhulu samabhethri e-solid-state. I-Dongfeng Motor imemezele ngokusemthethweni ukuthi ibhethri layo le-350 Wh/kg le-semi-solid-state lizongena ekukhiqizeni ngobuningi futhi lifakwe ezimotweni ngoSepthemba 2026.

I-Dongwu Securities ibikezela ukuthi isidingo samabhethri amandla emhlabeni wonke sizokhula ngo-23% unyaka nonyaka ngo-2026, kanti isidingo samabhethri e-lithium emhlabeni wonke kulindeleke ukuthi sifinyelele ku-2,939 GWh, okumele kube ukwanda ngo-32.3% unyaka nonyaka. Phakathi naleso sikhathi, izinzuzo kulo lonke uhla lwamabhethri e-lithium kulindeleke ukuthi ziphindeke lä ngonyaka ka-2026, kanti impumelelo yomkhakha kulindeleke ukuthi iqhubeke nokukhula.

Umkhakha wamabhethri e-lithium usesiqalweni somjikelezo omusha. Ngokushukunyiswa izinjini ezimbili zamabhethri amandla ezimoto zikagesi (EV) kanye nokugcinwa kwamandla, kanye nokuqhubeka kwezinguquko ezintsha zobuchwepheshe besizukulwane esilandelayo njengamabhethri aqinile (solid-state batteries), lo mkhakha usushintshe ukusuka ekwandiseni okubanzi uye esigabeni esisha sokukhula kwekhwalithi ephezulu.