Isibuyekezo Semboni Yamabhethri E-Lithium: Ukuqala Okukhulu Kwama-Solid-State, Imiphumela Yamareguleshini & Ukwanda Kwesitoreji Samandla

Kwadalwa ngo 06.22

Njengoba sihamba phakathi nendawo yonyaka ka-2026, umkhakha webhethri le-lithium umile endaweni ebalulekile yokuhlangana kwezinguquko zobuchwepheshe, ukuhlelwa kabusha kwezohwebo, kanye nokushintsha kwezindleko. Nansi imikhakha emithathu okufanele uyibheke kanye nemibono yethu ezimele.

1. Amabhethri E-All-Solid-State Angena Esigabeni Sokuhlola Izimoto

NgoJuni 10, i-CATL yamemezela ukulethwa kwamasampula ayo okuqala ebhethri le-all-solid-state elisezingeni lemoto kubakhiqizi bezimoto abambisene nabo. Ibonisa ukuminyana kwamandla angu-500 Wh/kg kanye nekhono lokushaja ngokushesha kwe-4C, ukukhiqizwa ngobuningi kuhlelelwe u-2027 — isinyathelo esicacile ukusuka elabhorethri kuya ekuhlolweni kobunjiniyela.

Uhlolo lwethu: Ukufika kwamabhethri aqinile (solid-state batteries) kuzokhuphula kakhulu amandla okuhamba (range potential) nezindawo zokuphepha, okuzoshintsha indlela amabhethri ezimoto zikagesi ezisezingeni eliphezulu nezinto zikagesi zabathengi. Iziqondiso zinconywa ukuthi zilandelele ukuvuthwa kokukhiqiza phakathi kwabadlali abahamba phambili futhi zihlole ngokushesha isikhathi sokuguqukela kwezinto ezithunyelwa ngaphandle.

Ukubonisa okuyisiphambano kwebhethri le-lithium eliqinile eligcwele libonisa izendlalelo zikagesi eziqinile ezinamandla angu-500 Wh/kg kanye nekhono lokushaja ngokushesha kwe-4C

2. Izintela Zamabhethri Okugcina Amandla E-US Ziqala Ukubona Imiphumela

Kusukela ngoJanuwari 2026, i-United States ikhuphule izintela kumabhethri e-lithium aseShayina angewona ezimoto zikagesi (okugcina amandla, ezemboni, njll.) yafinyelela ku-25% ngaphansi kweSigaba sesi-301. Idatha yeCustoms yaseShayina ibonisa ukuthi kusukela ngoJanuwari kuya kuMeyi 2026, ukuthunyelwa kwamabhethri e-lithium e-US kwehle ngo-18% unyaka nonyaka, kanti inani eliphelele lokuthunyelwa emhlabeni wonke likhuphuke ngo-23%, okubonisa ukushintsha okusheshayo kwesidingo ngaseYurophu, iMiddle East, kanye neNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia. Ngasikhathi sinye, abakhiqizi abahamba phambili baseShayina bayashesha ukwakha izimboni eMexico, Hungary, naseMorocco.

Uhlaziyo Lwethu: Ingcindezi yentela iphoqa abakhiqizi bebhethri baseShayina ukuthi basheshise ukukhiqiza emhlabeni wonke. Kubathengi baphesheya kwezilwandle, ukuhlukahlukana kwezinto zokuhlinzeka akusaseyona inketho. Sincoma ukubeka phambili abahlinzeki abanamalayini okukhiqiza asebenza kakade phesheya kwezilwandle ukuze kuncishiswe ukuchayeka enteleni futhi kuncishiswe izikhathi zokulethwa.

Imephu yezohwebo yebhethri le-lithium yomhlaba wonke ebonisa imithelela yentela yase-US ngokuthunyelwa kwe-China okubuyela eYurophu, eMiddle East naseNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia ngezimboni ezintsha eMexico, Hungary naseMorocco

3. Intengo kaLithium “Phansi” Ivusa Ukukhuphuka Kwesitoreji Samandla

Njengomhla zingama-19 kuJuni, i-lithium carbonate esezingeni lebhethri ibiza ngama-yuan angu-80,500/tonne, yehla cishe ngo-15% kusukela ekuqaleni konyaka. Lokhu kuholele ekutheni amanani amaphakethe ebhethri agcina amandla afinyelele ku-0.6 yuan/Wh (cishe u-$82/kWh). Ngokuhlanganiswa nezindleko ezihleliyo zamamojuli e-PV, izindleko ezilinganiselwe zikagesi wephrojekthi ye-solar-plus-storage e-China ziye zehla ngaphansi kuka-0.2 yuan/kWh, kuthuthukisa kakhulu ama-IRR emaphrojekthi e-commercial & industrial (C&I) kanye nawokwabelana ngesitoreji. I-BloombergNEF ibikezela ukuthi ukufakwa okusha kwamandla agciniwe emhlabeni wonke kuzodlula i-180 GWh okokuqala ngqa ngo-2026.

Uhlaziyo Lwethu: Isimo sezulu sentengo ephansi kaLithium sinikeza iwindi elihle kakhulu lokukhiya izindleko. Abathengi bamandla abakhulu kanye nabathuthukisi bamaphrojekthi bayakhuthazwa ukuthi bathathe isinyathelo ngokushesha — bavikele izivumelwano zesikhathi eside zokuhlinzekwa kwebhethri futhi basheshise ukuqaliswa kwamaphrojekthi asezingeni eliphezulu ukuze bathole ngokugcwele inzuzo yezindleko.

I-infographic yokuqhuma kokugcinwa kwamandla ebonisa amaphrojekthi e-solar-plus-storage anentengo ye-lithium carbonate engu-80,500 yuan/tonne kanye nesibikezelo sokufakwa komhlaba wonke esingu-180 GWh

Amazwi Okugcina

Ubuchwepheshe, umthetho wezohwebo, kanye nezindleko zezinto ezingavuthiwe kuhlangene kubumba imboni yebhethri le-lithium ngendlela ejulile. Ukugcina iso elibukhali kumathrendi angaphambili kuyindlela kuphela yokuhlala uphambili. Ukuze uthole okunye ukuqonda ngemakethe noma ukwesekwa kwamasu okuthenga, zizwe ukhululekile ukuxhumana nethimba lethu lochwepheshe.