Ukubuyekezwa Kwemboni Yebhethri Ye-Lithium Maphakathi Nonyaka ka-2026: Izitayela Ezintathu Eziguqula Imakethe

Njengoba sidlula maphakathi nonyaka ka-2026, imboni yamabhethri e-lithium yomhlaba wonke ishintsha ukwakheka kwayo. Kusukela kumabhethri angama-semi-solid-state angena ezimotweni, kuya emandleni aphansi e-lithium aqhubekayo kanye nesidingo esikhulayo sokugcina amandla esithatha indawo yokukhula kwezimoto zikagesi, umqondo oyisisekelo wemakethe uyashintsha. Ngokubheka intuthuko yakamuva, nansi imikhuba emithathu ebaluleke kakhulu okufanele uyiqaphele.

Abakhiqizi abambalwa abaphezulu bebhethri basanda kubika inqubekelaphambili ekukhiqizweni kwamabhethri e-semi-solid-state. I-CATL, i-Toyota nabanye sebehambise amaphakethe abo okuqala ebhethri anamandla omzimba adlula u-400 Wh/kg, eqondise ezimotweni zikagesi eziphezulu kanye nezindiza ze-eVTOL. Ngenkathi amabhethri e-all-solid-state esalwa nokumelana nokuxhumana kanye nezindleko eziphezulu zokukhiqiza, izixazululo ze-semi-solid-state sezivele zibonise izinzuzo ezicacile ekuthuthukiseni ukuphepha nokunciphisa ukukhathazeka ngebanga, okubangele igagasi elisha lokutshalwa kwezimali ezintweni ze-electrolyte kanye nama-high-nickel cathodes. Njengoba izindlela zobuchwepheshe zihlukana, abahlinzeki bezinto zokuhlukanisa kanye nama-anode e-lithium metal bathola amathuba amasha okuqinisekiswa, lapho uchungechunge lokuhlinzeka selusesigabeni esibalulekile sokuchazwa kwezinto.

Kusukela ngoJulayi 2026, amanani entengo ye-battery-grade lithium carbonate ahlala phakathi kuka-RMB 80,000–100,000 ngetoni ngayinye. Ukwehla okude kwentengo kunciphise inzuzo yabavukuzi: eminye imayini ye-spodumene e-Australia iyanciphisa ukukhula komthamo, kuyilapho amaphrojekthi e-lepidolite anezindleko eziphakeme e-China eqedwa ngokushesha. Intengo ephansi ye-lithium iphinde icindezele umnotho wokuvuselela amabhethri. Ukukhiqiza i-black mass nje akusasebenzi, okuphoqa imboni ukuthi isebenzise imodeli evaliwe ehlanganisa ukuhlukaniswa okunembile nokuvuselela izinto. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, abakhiqizi bamabhethri nabakhiqizi bezimoto baqhubeka nokuzuza ezintengweni eziphansi zezinto zokusetshenziswa, amaseli e-LFP ehlala ephansi futhi ngokungangabazeki asheshisa ukulingana kwentengo yezimoto zikagesi. Ngasohlangothini lokuhlinzeka, ijubane lamandla amasha e-brine e-Chile nase-Argentina, kanye nezinkinga zokuthutha ze-lithium zase-Afrika, zihlala ziyizinto ezibalulekile ezingashintsha engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka.

Ngokuhamba kwenguquko yamandla emhlabeni wonke, imakethe yokugcina amandla ebhethri ye-lithium ikhula ngokushesha okukhulu. Engxenyeni yokuqala ka-2026, ukufakwa kwezinto ezintsha zokugcina amandla e-China kukhule ngaphezu kuka-60% uma kuqhathaniswa nonyaka odlule, kanti amabhethri e-lithium enza ngaphezu kuka-90% womthamo. Isidingo sokugcina amandla ezindlini eYurophu naseMelika sihlala sinamandla, sisekelwa yizinqubomgomo zamanani kagesi kanye namamodeli ezitshalo zamandla ahlanganisiwe. Okubalulekile, amaseli amakhulu amandla aseba yindinganiso yemboni — izinga lokungena kwamaseli e-LFP angaphezu kuka-300 Ah ezinkambisweni zokuthenga likhuphuke ngokushesha, kwehlisa izindleko zohlelo zibe sezingeni eliphansi. Isidingo esikhulayo sokugcina amandla isikhathi eside futhi sinikeza indlela eqinile yokusebenzisa amandla amabhethri ezimoto zikagesi angasebenzi, lapho abakhiqizi bephakamisa amabhizinisi abo okugcina amandla kusukela emikhubeni yokudla “ukuchithwa kwempahla” babe yizinsika eziyinhloko zokukhula.

Emuva kwesigamu sonyaka, imithetho yokubalwa kwe-carbon footprint ngaphansi koMthetho Wamabhethri we-EU izoqala ukusebenza ngokusemthethweni, kuyilapho izidingo zendawo ze-US IRA zizoqina nakakhulu. Amakhono okuthobela umthetho emhlabeni wonke kanye nokuphathwa kwe-carbon kuzoba yizinto ezihlukanisa ukuncintisana. Kubahlanganyeli bomkhakha, indlela esebenzayo yokuhamba emjikelezweni ihlala injalo: ukwehlisa izindleko ngobuchwepheshe, ukuhambisana nokushintsha kwenqubomgomo, nokugcina ukuma okuguquguqukayo kuyo yomibili imikhondo yezimoto zikagesi kanye nokugcina amandla.

Ukuze uthole imininingwane ejulile yemakethe yamabhethri e-lithium noma ukwelulekwa okwenziwe ngokwezidingo zakho, sicela ungakhululeki ukuxhumana nethimba lethu lochwepheshe.