Isibuyekezo Somkhakha Wamabhetri E-Lithium Ngo-Agasti 2026: Ukugcina Amandla Kuqhuba Umkhiqizo Orekhodiwe, Amabhetri E-Solid-State Angena Esigabeni Sokuqinisekiswa Kwezimoto

Ukungena ku-Q3 2026, imboni yamabhethri e-lithium yomhlaba wonke iqhubeka nokukhula ngamandla, nokwanda kwamandla kanye nokuthuthuka kwezobuchwepheshe kuhamba ndawonye. Idatha yakamuva yemboni ikhombisa ukuthi ukuhlelelwa kokukhiqiza amabhethri e-lithium ezweni kufinyelele ezingeni eliphezulu kunawo wonke, kanti isidingo sokugcina amandla sibe umthombo omkhulu wokukhula. Ngokuhambisana nalokhu, ukwenziwa kwezimboni kwamabhethri aqinile (solid-state) kuyashesha, nezinkampani ezihamba phambili zithola impumelelo enkulu. Umkhakha njengamanje usesimweni esihle sokukhiqiza ngamandla aphelele kanye nokuthuthukiswa kobuchwepheshe.

Ngokwezibalo zomkhakha, isamba somkhiqizo ohleliwe wamabhethri e-lithium e-China sifinyelele cishe ku-304GWh ngo-Agasti 2026, sikhuphuke ngo-7.4% uma kuqhathaniswa nenyanga edlule, sidlula isibikezelo sangaphambilini semakethe sokukhula kuka-3%–5%. Ukuhlelwa kwamabhethri okugcina amandla kufinyelele ku-125GWh, ukwenyuka okungaba ngu-10GWh kusukela enyangeni edlule, okumelela ngaphezu kuka-40% womkhiqizo wonke, futhi sekudlule amabhethri ezimoto njengomshayeli oyinhloko wesidingo.

Lo mkhuleko wamanje uqhutshwa kakhulu ukuthengwa okugxilile kwemiklamo emikhulu yamazwe aphesheya yokugcina amandla. Izimakethe ezinjenge-United States ne-Middle East sezingene esikhathini sokulethwa okuphezulu ngaphambi kwemikhawulo yokuxhuma ekupheleni konyaka, kanti ama-oda asele ezinkampanini ezithile afinyelela maphakathi no-Okthoba. Kanye nokubuyela kwesidingo, amanani amaseli aqinile futhi abuyela phezulu. Amanani aphakathi nendawo ama-cell we-LFP wokugcina amandla angu-314Ah akhuphuke kakhulu kusukela ekupheleni kuka-2025, futhi abakhiqizi abahamba phambili bamemezele ukulungiswa kwamanani ngokulandelana, okudala isimo semakethe sokukhuphuka kwazo zombili inani nentengo.

Iselo sokuthengiswa kobuchwepheshe bamabhethri esizukulwane esilandelayo siyashesha, futhi unyaka ka-2026 ubhekwa kabanzi njengonyaka wokuqinisekiswa kwezimoto zamabhethri aqinile ngokuphelele. Imiphumela eminingi yezimboni isizuziwe muva nje: I-GAC Group isungule ukuqinisekiswa kwezimoto zamabhethri ahlanganisiwe aqinile noketshezi; i-CATL ne-BYD zihlela ukuqala ukukhiqiza ngobuningi obuncane nokusetshenziswa kokuboniswa kwamabhethri aqinile ngokuphelele ngokulandelana ngo-2027; imikhiqizo evela ezinkampanini ezihlanganisa i-Farasis Energy ne-Gotion High-Tech isiqedile ukuhlolwa kwezimo ezinzima futhi isilungele ukukhiqizwa ngobuningi.

Izindleko zokweqa imingcele nazo zibalulekile ngokufanayo. Izindleko zama-sulfide electrolytes zehle ngaphezu kuka-35%, zisheshisa ukuguquka kwamabhetri esimo esiqinile ukusuka "ekukwazini ukusebenza ngokwezobuchwepheshe" kuya "ekusebenzisekeni ngokwezomnotho". Ngasohlangothini lwemishini, imishini eyinhloko yokukhiqiza efana nama-all-solid-state dry rolling presses isivele ilethiwe, ibeka isisekelo sokukhiqiza ngobuningi esizayo. Abahlaziyi bezimboni bahlulela ukuthi amabhetri e-liquid lithium azohlala eyiwona abalulekile esikhathini esimfushane naphakathi, kuyilapho amabhetri ahlanganisiwe e-solid-liquid eqala ukungena ezimotweni eziphezulu kanye nezimo zokusebenza ezikhethekile.

Ohlangothini lwezinto zokusetshenziswa ezingaphezulu, ukunwetshwa kwamandla okukhiqiza okuphezulu kuyaqhubeka ngesivinini esikhulu. Izigaba ezihlanganisa ama-separator kanye nama-LFP cathode okuminyana okuphezulu zibone izinhlelo zokutshalwa kwezimali eziyizigidi eziyizinkulungwane zama-yuan, ngalo lonke uchungechunge lwezimboni lukhuphukela ekusebenzeni okuphezulu nezindleko eziphansi. Ngaphandle kwamabhetri esimo esiqinile, amabhetri e-sodium-ion nawo asuka ekuqinisekisweni kobuchwepheshe eya ekusetshenzisweni okukhulu kwezentengiselwano, njengoba izinkampani ezimbalwa seziqedile ukulethwa kwemiklamo yamazinga angama-100MW phesheya kwezilwandle, futhi ukuthunyelwa ngobuningi kulindeleka ukuba kuqale ekupheleni kuka-2026.

Sekukonke, ukushintsha kwamandla emhlabeni wonke kanye nomkhuba wokufakwa kukagesi akukashintshi, futhi imboni yamabhethri e-lithium isenamandla okukhula esikhathini eside eqhutshwa yikho kokubili ukugcinwa kwamandla kanye nokusetshenziswa kwezimoto. Esikhathini esifushane, isikhathi esiphezulu sokugcinwa kwamandla phesheya kwezilwandle kuhlanganiswe nobuchwepheshe obusha besimo esiqinile kungenzeka kuqhubeke ukugcina ukuchuma kwemboni kuze kube sekupheleni kwekota yesine. Esikhathini eside, ukuphindaphindwa kobuchwepheshe kanye nokuhlelwa komhlaba wonke kuzoba yizindikimba eziyinhloko zokuncintisana kubadlali bemboni.