**Ukuvuselelwa Kwemboni Yamabhethri E-Lithium — Agasti 2026: Umkhiqizo Ophakeme Kakhulu, Isitoreji Sihola, Amanani Amaseli Aqala Ukukhuphuka**

Ngo-Agasti 2026, imboni yamabhetri e-lithium ikhombisa izimpawu eziqinile kuyo yonke indawo: ukukhiqizwa okuhleliwe kufinyelele irekhodi elisha, ukugcina amandla kudlule amabhetri ezimoto zikagesi njengomshayeli ophambili wesidingo, futhi amanani amaseli asengene emjikelezweni wokukhuphuka.

Ngokwe-GGII, ukukhiqizwa okuhleliwe kwamabhetri e-lithium e-China kukhule ngo-7%–8% ngenyanga ngo-Agasti, kufinyelela ngaphezu kuka-300GWh okokuqala ngqa. Ucwaningo olwenziwa yi-Bai Chuan Ying Fu kubakhi bamabhetri abangama-27 lubonisa ukuthi umkhiqizo wonke wango-Agasti wawungu-311.85GWh. Amaseli okugcina amandla (energy storage cells) abalelwa cishe ku-125GWh — okungaphezu kuka-40% wesamba — futhi ngokusemthethweni adlula amaseli ezimoto njengomshayeli oyinhloko wokukhula kwemboni. Ukwenyuka ikakhulukazi kuvela kuma-oda okugcina amandla amakhulu aphesheya kwezilwandle: amaphrojekthi ase-U.S. nase-Middle East aqongelela izimpahla ngaphambi kokuxhunywa kugridi ekupheleni konyaka, futhi amanye amashejuli okulethwa kwabakhi selulwe kwaze kwaba maphakathi no-Okthoba.

Isilinganiso sentengo yamaseli amakhulu okugcina amandla e-LFP angu-314Ah sikhuphuke safinyelela ku-RMB 0.365/Wh ngo-Agasti, kukhuphuke cishe ngo-18% kusukela ku-RMB 0.31/Wh ngasekupheleni kuka-2025. I-CATL yaqala yenyusa intengo yayo yamaseli okugcina angu-314Ah yaya ku-RMB 0.423/Wh ngo-Agasti 1, kwathi i-EVE yalandela ngokukhuphula ngo-2% kuwo wonke amaseli asekhaya kusukela ngoSepthemba 1. Okubalulekile, lokhu kukhuphuka akufani: abaholi bomkhakha badlulisela izindleko ngenxa yamalungelo obunikazi kanye nekhwalithi ephezulu, kanti abadlali abancane bayacindezelwa — okusheshisa ukuqinisa amandla okukhiqiza emkhakheni wezinga eliphansi.

Isidingo sokugcina amandla siqhubekile sikhulisa imali engenayo. I-CATL ibike imali engenayo ye-H1 engu-RMB 276.9 billion, inyuke ngo-54.8% ngonyaka, nenzuzo esele engu-RMB 43.28 billion, inyuke ngo-41.98%. I-EVE ne-Gotion zibikezele ukukhula kwenzuzo ye-H1 okungu-95%–110% kanye no-227%–323% ngokulandelana, kanti i-Great Power ibuyele enzuzweni ngokuthumela kwamasheya okugcina amandla kukhule ngo-202% ngonyaka. Idatha ye-GGII ikhombisa ukuthi ukuthunyelwa kwamabhethri e-lithium e-China nge-H1 kufinyelele cishe ku-1.2TWh, kukhule ngaphezu kuka-50% ngonyaka, kanti ukuthunyelwa kwamasheya okugcina amandla kukhule ngaphezu kuka-80%. Izazi zokubikezela zomkhakha zikhuphule isilinganiso somkhiqizo wamabhethri e-lithium emhlabeni wonke wango-2026 sibe ngu-3,200GWh.

Ngakoluhlangothi lwenqubomgomo, iminyango emithathu yamemezela intela engu-2% yokusetshenziswa kwamabhetri e-lithium-ion eqala ukusebenza ngoSepthemba 1, 2026 (ikhuphuke ibe ngu-4% ngoSepthemba 2027), iqeda iminyaka engaphezu kweshumi yokukhululwa enteleni futhi iqhube imboni ibheke ekukhiqizeni okunenani elengeziwe nokusebenza kahle. Phesheya kwezilwandle, i-EU ihlela ukwengeza isitoreji esingu-45GW phakathi kuka-2026–2028 ngenhloso yokufinyelela ku-200GW ngonyaka ka-2030, kanti isitoreji sezinga lezinsiza zikagesi e-US sesivele sidlula u-51GW. Ukuthunyelwa kwezimoto zikagesi zase-China kufinyelele ezigidini eziyi-2.354 ngesigamu sokuqala sika-2026, kukhuphuke ngo-122.9% uma kuqhathaniswa nonyaka odlule, kanti nokuthunyelwa kwamabhetri ezimoto zikagesi nakho kuqine kakhulu.

Iziphumo ezintathu: Okokuqala, amaseli okugcina ajwayelekile afana ne-314Ah angena emjikelezweni wokukhuphuka kwamanani entengo — ukubhuka ama-oda namanani entengo kusenesikhathi kusiza ukulawula izindleko. Okwesibili, amandla okukhiqiza abakhiqizi abahamba phambili asebenza ngokugcwele futhi izikhathi zokulethwa zinde, ngakho hlela isheduli yakho yokuthenga kusenesikhathi. Okwesithathu, njengoba izintela zasekhaya nezindleko zikhuphuka, uchungechunge lokuhlinzeka luhlanganiswa lubheka abahlinzeki abasezingeni eliphezulu nabanezindleko eziphansi. I-EABK izoqhubeka nokuqapha ukuthuthuka kwemakethe ukuze ikunikeze imininingwane yemboni ngesikhathi nokuxazulula izinkinga zokuhlinzeka okuzinzile.