I-Lithium Battery Market Pulse | Ukugcina Amandla Kuba Umthombo Wokukhula #1 Njengoba Amanani Nezinqubomgomo Zifinyelela Amaphuzu Abalulekile

Kwadalwa ngo 08.31

Ngo-Agasti 2026 kwaphawuleka izigaba eziningana embonini yamabhethri e-lithium: ukuhlela ukukhiqiza kwanyanga kwagqekeza ku-300GWh okokuqala, ukugcina amandla kwasemthethweni kwadlula amabhethri ezimoto kagesi njengomshayeli omkhulu wesidingo, amanani e-lithium aphezulu aqhubeka ekhuphuka, kanye nentela entsha yokusetshenziswa kwamabhethri eqala ngoSepthemba 1 — kuguqula isimo sezindleko nokuncintisana kwemboni.

imboni yamabhetri e-lithium ishaya imakethe ngo-Agasti 2026 ukukhiqizwa kudlula i-300GWh kanti ukugcina amandla kuyinto entsha yokukhula

1. Umkhiqizo ka-Agasti Ugqekeza ku-300GWh — Ukugcina Amandla Kudlula Izimoto Kagesi Njengomshayeli Wokukhula

Ngokocwaningwa olwenziwe yi-BaiChuan Yingfu kubakhiqizi bamabhethri abangama-27, ukukhiqizwa kwamabhethri e-lithium e-China kufinyelele ku-311.85GWh ngo-Agasti, kukhuphuke ngo-5.71% uma kuqhathaniswa nenyanga edlule, futhi kufinyelele ezingeni eliphezulu kunawo wonke emlandweni. Amaseli okugcina amandla (energy storage cells) abalelwa cishe ku-125GWh — okungaphezu kuka-40% womkhiqizo wonke — okokuqala ngqa edlula amabhethri ezimoto ngobukhulu. Lokhu kukhuphuka okukhulu kubangelwa ikakhulukazi ukugcinwa kwempahla okugxilile kwemiklamo emikhulu yokugcina amandla yaphesheya kwezilwandle: izimakethe ezinjenge-United States ne-Middle East zisesikhathini sokulethwa okuphezulu ngaphambi kwemikhawulo yokuxhunywa kugridi ekupheleni konyaka, kanti eminye imikhiqizo yabakhiqizi isilinde ukugcwaliswa kwama-oda kuze kube maphakathi no-Okthoba.

ukugcina amandla kudlula amabhetri ezimoto njengomshayeli omkhulu wokufunwa ngo-Agasti ukukhiqizwa kwamabhetri e-lithium kudlula amaphesenti angu-40

2. Amanani e-Lithium Aqina, Amanani Amaseli Azinza — Umjikelezo "Wokwenyuka Kwevolumu Namanani"

Ngasekupheleni kuka-Agasti, i-lithium carbonate yezinga lebhetri yadlula umkhawulo we-RMB 150,000/MT (isilinganiso se-RMB 149,000/MT ngo-Agasti 19, sikhuphuke cishe ngo-4.9% isonto ngesonto), kuyilapho i-spodumene concentrate yakhuphuka yafinyelela cishe ku-USD 2,100/MT. Ngezindleko ezikhulayo zokukhiqiza nokufunwa okuqinile, amanani amaseli ajwayelekile e-314Ah LFP okugcina amandla abuyele phezulu ngokuphawulekayo kusukela ekuqaleni kokuphela kuka-2025, futhi abakhiqizi abahamba phambili bamemezele ngokulandelana ukulungiswa kwamanani. Amanani amaseli angaphansi namasistimu asezingeni eliphansi ahlala ezinzile okwamanje (amaseli okugcina angu-314Ah acishe abe yi-RMB 0.36/Wh), kodwa ingcindezi yezindleko iyadluliselwa phansi kochungechunge lokuhlinzeka, futhi ukukhuphuka okwengeziwe akunakwenqatshwa.

3. Intela Yokudla Amabhethri Iqala NgoSepthemba 1 — Izinhlelo Zokugcina Amandla Zikhululwa Ngokusobala

Kusukela ngoSepthemba 1, 2026, amabhetri e-lithium primary kanye ne-lithium-ion azokhokhiswa intela yokusetshenziswa engu-2%, ekhuphukela kumthetho ongu-4% ngoSepthemba 1, 2027. Amabhetri athunyelwa ngaphandle azuza ohlelweni lwe-"tax-first, refund-after-export", futhi iziphathimandla zentela ziqinisekisile ukuthi izinhlelo zokugcina amandla (energy storage systems) azikhokhiswa lolu telo. Okwamanje, izindlela ezintsha zobuchwepheshe ezifana namabhetri e-sodium-ion kanye ne-solid-state zihlala zikhululiwe kuze kube sekupheleni kuka-2028, lokhu kuyisikhuthazo esiklanyelwe ukuqhubekisela phambili imboni kubuchwepheshe obuphezulu. Imboni ngokujwayelekile ilindele ukuthi umthethonqubomgomo omusha usheshise ukuqedwa kwamandla angasebenzi kahle, kuguqulwe ukuncintisana kusuka empini yamanani aphansi kuya kwehlukaniswa ngekhwalithi ephezulu, kanti abadlali abahamba phambili bakwazi kangcono ukumunca noma ukudlulisela izindleko ezengeziwe.

umthetho wentela yokusetshenziswa kwamabhetri e-lithium ngoSepthemba 2026 kanti ukugcina amandla akukhokhisi intela futhi amanani e-lithium carbonate ayakhuphuka

4. Ukusheshisa Ukusabalala Komhlaba Wonke: Ama-oda Aphesheya Kwezilwandle E-H1 Afinyelela Ku-298GWh, Kukhuphuke Ngo-83% Ngonyaka

Idatha ekhishwe yi-CNESA ngo-Agasti 27 ikhombisa ukuthi izinkampani zaseShayina zisayine ama-oda okugcina amandla aphesheya kwezilwandle afinyelela ku-298GWh e-H1 2026, kukhuphuke ngo-83% ngonyaka. Esikhathini esifanayo, ukuthunyelwa komhlaba wonke kwamaseli e-lithium okugcina amandla yizinkampani zaseShayina kufinyelele ku-380GWh, kanti ukuthunyelwa konyaka wonke kulindeleke ukuthi kufinyelele ku-850GWh. IYurophu ihlala iyimakethe ebalulekile, kuyilapho iMpumalanga Ephakathi, iNdiya neChile zikhula ngokushesha — amandla okugcina aseShayina aguquka ekuthunyelweni komkhiqizo ukuya ekukhipheni amandla aphelele.

Ukuvala

Isidingo esikhulayo sokugcina amandla, amanani eqinile e-lithium kanye nenqubomgomo entsha yentela kuhlangene kuphusha imboni yamabhethri e-lithium esigabeni esisha. Kubathengi, ukuhlala phambili kumathrendi amanani nokunikezwa kanye nokukhetha abahlinzeki abanokulethwa okuthembekile nokuhambisana ngokugcwele nemithetho kubaluleke kakhulu kunangaphambili.