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Isibuyekezo Semakethe Yamabhethri E-Lithium — Septhemba 2026: Ukugcina Amandla Kuyahola, Amanani Ayashintshashintsha, Imithethonqubomgomo Emisha Iyaqala Ukusebenza
Kwadalwa ngo 09.07
USeptember 2026 uvula ngeqoqo lezimpawu ezibalulekile zemakethe yomhlaba wonke yamabhetri e-lithium: amanani e-lithium carbonate ashintshashintsha ezingeni eliphezulu ngemva kokukhuphuka kuka-Agasti, intela entsha yokudla yaseShayina kumabhetri yaqala ukusebenza ngoSepthemba 1, futhi amaseli okugcina amandla asedlule amabhetri ezimoto njengomshayeli wokuqala wemakethe yemboni. Kubathengi baphesheya, ukufunda lezi zimpawu ngendlela efanele kuyisihluthulelo sokuhlela isikhathi sokuthenga kanye nesabelomali sengxenye yesibili yonyaka.
1. Ukugcina amandla manje kungumshayeli wokuqala wokukhula
Ukuthunyelwa kwamangqamuzana okugcina amandla emhlabeni wonke kufinyelele ku-467.84 GWh engxenyeni yokuqala ka-2026, kukhuphuke ngo-94.8% unyaka nonyaka (InfoLink), kuyilapho abakhiqizi bokugcina baseShayina besayina ama-oda amasha angu-817 GWh arekhodiwe engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka. Idatha yokuhlela yezimboni ikhombisa ukuthi umkhiqizo wamangqamuzana okugcina ubale ngaphezu kuka-40% womkhiqizo wonke wamabhethri e-lithium eShayina ngo-Agasti, udlula amabhethri ezimoto okokuqala ngqa. Lokhu kukhula kuqhutshwa ukulethwa okugxilile kwemisebenzi emikhulu yokugcina eNyakatho Melika, eMpumalanga Ephakathi naseYurophu, kanti ama-oda abakhiqizi abahamba phambili bamangqamuzana asehlalelwe kuze kube ngu-2027. Ngaphezu kuka-90% wamangqamuzana okugcina asebenzisa ubuchwepheshe be-LFP — futhi ukuthunyelwa kwe-LFP cathode yaseShayina kufinyelele irekhodi elingu-15,379.6 tonnes ngoJuni, kukhuphuke ngo-101.7% inyanga nenyanga.
2. I-lithium carbonate: ukushintshashintsha kwezinga eliphezulu, ibhalansi yokunikezwa nokufunwa eqinile
Amanani e-Battery-grade lithium carbonate spot akhuphuka esuka ku-RMB 142,000/t afinyelela phezulu ku-RMB 156,000/t ngo-Agasti (+9.9%), abuyela emuva azungeza ku-RMB 150,000/t evikini lokuqala likaSepthemba (100ppi). Ama-futures abenokushintshashintsha okukhulu kakhulu: inkontileka enkulu yavalwa ku-RMB 141,900/t ngoSepthemba 4, yehla cishe ngo-9% is linganiswa nesonto eledlule, idonselwa phansi ukushintshwa kwendlela yezibalo ze-inventory, ijubane elinciphile lokunciphisa izitoko, kanye namahemuhemu okuncishiswa kwezinhlelo zokukhiqiza kwezinye izinkampani ezinkulu. Kodwa-ke, ukunikezwa kwe-spot kusamuncu futhi kunesekelo eliqinile lezindleko. Izibikezelo ezijwayelekile zikhomba ukulinganisela okuqinile kuze kube ngu-2026–2027, futhi amanani kungenzeka ahlale esebangeni le-RMB 120,000–150,000/t.
3. Intela yokudla yaseShayina iyaqala ukusebenza — izindleko zikhuphuka ziya kumkhiqizo
Kusukela ngoSepthemba 1, 2026, iChina iye yakhokhisa intela yokusetshenziswa engu-2% kumabhethri e-lithium-ion (ikhuphuka ibe ngu-4% kusukela ngoSepthemba 2027). Amabhethri e-sodium-ion nawokuqinile asakhululiwe kuze kube sekupheleni kuka-2028, futhi ama-oda okuthumela kwamanye amazwe azuza ohlelweni lwe-"intela kuqala, ukubuyiselwa kwemali ngemva kokuthumela". Abakhiqizi abahamba phambili bamangqamuzana amaningi sebekhishile izaziso zokulungisa amanani, futhi imboni ilindele igagasi elibanzi lokukhuphuka kwamanani elingaba ngu-5% ekupheleni kwe-Q3. Kubathengi, izindleko zokuthenga amabhethri nezinhlelo kungenzeka kakhulu ukuthi ziqhubeke zikhuphuka.
4. Ubuchwepheshe buyashesha: amaseli angu-600Ah, ukushaja okushesha kakhulu, i-solid-state
INgqungquthela Yomhlaba Wonke Yamandla Ebhethri ka-2026 (Mandulo 3–4, Yibin, China) yembula uchungechunge lwempumelelo eyingqophamlando: amaseli okugcina agxile ukusuka ku-300Ah kuya ku-600Ah ekukhiqizweni okukhulu, amabhethri asheshayo okushaja aphephile cishe ngemizuzu eyi-10 afika emakethe, futhi izinto zokuqala zohlobo lwe-4 ze-LFP ezinokuminyana okuphezulu manje sezidlula u-200 Wh/kg. Ngaphezu kwalokho, izinga lokuqala lamazwe ngamazwe lamabhethri aqinile — eliholwa yi-China — seligunyazwe yi-IEC, okusheshisa indlela yokufinyelela ekuthengisweni.
Amacebiso amane abathengi
- Emkhathini wokukhuphuka kwezindleko, bamba ama-oda esikhathi eside namanani entengo nomthengisi wakho kusenesikhathi.
- I-LFP esezingeni eliphezulu (amaseli okugcina amandla amakhulu, acindezelwe kakhulu) isalokhu iqinile — qinisekisa amandla okukhiqiza nezikhathi zokulethwa manje.
- Amabhethri athunyelwa e-EU kumele athobele imithetho emisha yokumenyezelwa kwe-carbon footprint ngaphansi koMthetho Wamabhethri we-EU — lungiselela amadokhumenti akho okuthobela kusenesikhathi.
- Qaphela amanani e-lithium nokudluliswa kwentela yokusetshenziswa, futhi hlela ukuthenga ngezigaba.
Njengomthengisi ochwepheshile oneminyaka eminingi yokuhlangenwe embonini yamabhethri e-lithium, sizoqhubeka sikulandelela lezi zinguquko futhi sikunikeze amabhethri athembekile nezinsiza zokuhlinzeka ngezinto.