Ukubuyekezwa Kwemboni Yamabhethri e-Lithium (Septhemba 2026): Isidingo Esinamandla, I-Solid-State Iseduze

Okubalulekile: Imboni yebhethri ye-lithium ihamba ngesivinini esiphezulu — umkhiqizo nokufakwa kukhula njalo kufinyelela amazinga aphezulu. Ngaleso sikhathi, amabhethri e-solid-state asuka elabhorethri eya emigqeni yokukhiqiza ngesivinini esikhulayo, kanti u-2027 ubonwa kabanzi njengonyaka obalulekile wokusetshenziswa komboniso. Emakethe ephezulu, amanani e-lithium carbonate ehle kakhulu, ehlola ukuqina kwe-supply chain futhi.

Ngokusho kwedatha ye-MIIT, isamba sokukhiqizwa kwamabhethri e-lithium e-China sadlula ku-1,240 GWh ngesigamu sokuqala sika-2026, sikhuphuke ngo-44% uma kuqhathaniswa nonyaka odlule. Ukufakwa kwamabhethri kagesi ngo-August kufinyelele ku-79 GWh — unyaka wesithathu olandelanayo wokukhula — futhi ukungena kwe-NEV kukhuphuke kwafinyelela ku-60.58%. Ukukhiqizwa kwanyanga zonke phakathi kwabakhiqizi abakhulu abayisithupha bamabhethri kukhuphuke ngo-7% ngo-September, kanti umthamo we-Q3 ukhuphuke ngo-19% ngekota. Ukugcinwa kwamandla manje sekuyinjini eyinhloko yokukhula: amaseli okugcina amandla enza cishe u-40% wokuhlelwa kokukhiqizwa kuka-September, okushayelwa amasentha edatha e-AI kanye namaphrojekthi kagesi aphesheya e-Middle East nase-U.S.

Ngokwezinqubomgomo, izindinganiso zikazwelonke ezintathu zamabhethri e-EV solid-state (ukusebenza, ukuphepha, kanye nempilo) zivunyelwe ukuthuthukiswa, futhi imibono yokuqala kulindeleke ekupheleni konyaka. I-China iphinde yathola iphrojekthi ye-IEC yezindinganiso zokuqala zomhlaba zamabhethri e-solid-state.

Izimemezelo zemboni ziza ngokushesha: i-BYD ihlela ukwethula izimoto ezisebenza nge-solid-state ngo-2027, ngeseli ye-sulfide-route enesisindo esingu-400 Wh/kg kanye ne-prototype CLTC range engu-1,218 km; umugqa wayo wokukhiqiza i-semi-solid engu-20 GWh e-Chongqing uzokuqala ukunika amandla i-Yangwang U8 ne-Han L ngekota yesine yalo nyaka. I-CATL isiqedile umugqa wokuhlola we-all-solid-state engu-1 GWh okuhloswe ngawo ukukhiqiza ngezinga elincane ngo-2027 — nakuba abaphathi bayo bexwayisa ukuthi ubuchwepheshe busezingeni "lesi-4 kwezi-9" ekuvuthweni, futhi ukwanda kwangempela kusekude okungenani iminyaka emihlanu. Phesheya, i-ProLogium esekelwa yi-Mercedes-Benz imemezele ukukhiqizwa okukhulu kweseli yayo ye-Gen 3.5 all-solid-state ekuqaleni kukaSepthemba, efinyelela ku-381 Wh/kg kanye no-903 Wh/L.

Ukuvumelana kwemboni: u-2026 unyaka wokuqala wokuthengiswa kwe-semi-solid; u-2027 uphawula ukufakwa kwezibonelo zamaseli e-all-solid-state, futhi ukukhiqizwa okukhulu kulindeleke cishe ngo-2030.

Izinkontileka zesikhathi esizayo ze-lithium carbonate zehle ngo-40% ukusuka esiqongweni sangoMeyi esasingama-¥210,000/ton, yehla ngaphansi kuka-¥125,000/ton maphakathi noSepthemba. Lokhu kulungiswa kwentengo kubangelwa kakhulu umoya wemakethe — imibiko yokuncishiswa komkhiqizo yizinkampani ezinkulu zamaseli, ukushintshwa kwendlela yokubala izibalo zempahla, kanye nokuhlehliswa okuncane kokuhlelwa kwezinto ze-ternary. Isidingo sangempela sisakhipha amandla, kanti umehluko wentengo uyakhula futhi ukulingana phakathi kokunikezwa nesidingo kusalindeleke kuze kuphele unyaka.

Ohlangothini lokunikezwa, i-copper foil yamabhethri isisukile ekubeni namandla amaningi okukhiqiza isiya ekushodeni kwangempela, kanti isikhathi sokulinda siyanda kwezinye izinhlobo.

Kusukela ngoSepthemba 1, amabhethri e-sodium-ion abe ne-HS code yawo, okusheshisa ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe. I-Hithium yethula uhlelo lokugcina lwe-sodium-ion olunempilo yokuklama yeminyaka engu-30, okuhloswe ngayo ukulethwa okukhulu ngo-2027. Njengoba izindleko ziphansi ngo-20–30% kune-lithium efanayo, i-sodium-ion kulindeleke ukuthi ikhule kuqala ezinhlelweni zokugcina. Ngaleso sikhathi, i-AI ihlela kabusha ucwaningo nokuthuthukiswa kwebhethri — kusukela ekuhlolweni kwezinto nokuklama okuhlakaniphile kuya ekukhiqizeni okuhlakaniphile.

Umugqa ophansi: Isidingo esinamandla kanye nokuguquguquka kwentengo kuhlangana ndawonye emakethe yanamuhla. Kubathengi, ukulandelela ukuthambekela kwezindleko zezinto zokusetshenziswa kanye nezigaba eziqinile kubaluleke kakhulu kunokulandela ukunyakaza kwesikhashana. Sizoqhubeka nokukulethala imininingwane yemboni yakamuva.