Isibuyekezo Semakethe Yebhethri ye-Lithium – Septhemba 2026: Ukugcinwa Kwamandla Kuhola Phambili, Izintengo Ziyakhuphuka, Futhi Imboni Ingena Esigabeni Esisha Sokuncintisana Kwenani

UNcwaba ulethe izinguquko ezinkulu embonini yamabhethri e-lithium, okubangelwa ukwanda kwesidingo, ukukhuphuka kwezintengo, kanye nezinyathelo ezintsha zenqubomgomo. Ngenkathi isidingo samandla okugcina amandla emhlabeni wonke sikhula ngezinga elirekhodiwe futhi abadlali abahamba phambili basayina izivumelwano ezinkulu, izintengo zamaseli seziphelile iminyaka emibili yehla, intela yokusetshenziswa isiqalile ukusebenza, futhi sekukhona izexwayiso zokugcwala komthamo. Imboni ngokusobala isuka "ekuncintisana ngenani" iya ekuncintisaneni ngenani elisekelwe ekuqineni.

Ukugcinwa kwamandla sekuyisigaba esikhula ngokushesha kunazo zonke emakethe yebhethri. Ngokusho kwe-SNE Research, ukuthunyelwa kwama-battery e-lithium-ion okugcina amandla emhlabeni wonke kufinyelele ku-461.3 GWh engxenyeni yokuqala ka-2026, kukhuphuke ngo-71% uma kuqhathaniswa nonyaka odlule, kuyilapho ukufakwa kwamabhethri e-EV kukhule ngo-20.0% kufinyelela ku-608.5 GWh. E-China, ukuthengiswa okuhlangene kwamabhethri kagesi nawokugcina amandla kufinyelele ku-979.4 GWh engxenyeni yokuqala ka-2026, kukhuphuke ngo-48.6%, kanti ukuthengiswa kwamabhethri okugcina amandla kukhuphuke ngo-83.4%. Ucwaningo lwemakethe lulindele ukuthi ukukhiqizwa kwamabhethri e-China ngoSepthemba kuzodlula ku-330 GWh, kukhuphuke cishe ngo-9% ngenyanga, kanti amaseli okugcina amandla azothatha cishe u-130 GWh (cishe u-40%), okushukunyiswa ikakhulukazi ukuxhumeka kugridi kokuphela konyaka emaphrojekhini aphesheya e-Middle East, e-Europe nase-US.

Ngemuva kweminyaka emibili yokwehla, amanani amaseli okugcina izinto akhuphuka futhi. Isilinganiso senani lama-314Ah LFP amaseli okugcina izinto sikhuphuke sabuyela cishe ku-RMB 0.365/Wh ngoMandulo, sikhuphuke ngaphezu kuka-20% ukusuka ezingeni eliphansi ekupheleni kuka-2025; iseli enkulu ye-CATL engu-587Ah nayo yafakwa ohlwini lomphakathi okokuqala nge-RMB 0.415/Wh. Okwamanje, amanani e-lithium carbonate—ayekhuphuke kakhulu ukusuka ngaphansi kwe-RMB 60,000/ton ngo-2025 maphakathi—ehle ngoMandulo, isivumelwano esiyinhloko se-futures sehla kancane safinyelela cishe ku-RMB 128,000/ton ngoMandulo 11 kanti amanani e-spot ayecishe abe ngu-RMB 142,300/ton, ehle ngaphezu kuka-35% ukusuka esiqongweni sikaMeyi. Ohlangothini lwenqubomgomo, intela yokusetshenziswa engu-2% kumabhethri e-lithium-ion yaqala ukusebenza ngoMandulo 1, 2026, ezokhuphuka ibe ngu-4% kusukela ngoMandulo 1, 2027—ishintsha izakhiwo zezindleko kanye nezindlela zamanani kulo lonke uchungechunge.

Phakathi kwesidingo esinamandla, abadlali abahamba phambili baqinisa izivumelwano ezinkulu. NgoSepthemba 18, i-EVE Energy yamemezela isivumelwano sohlaka ne-Fluence sokuhlinzeka nge-206 GWh yamabhethri okugcina kusukela ngo-2027–2031, okugqamisa ukwanda phesheya kwezilwandle kanye nokugcinwa kwedatha ye-AI (AIDC) njengezindawo ezibalulekile zokulwa. Ngasikhathi sinye, ukwanda komthamo kusaqhubeka ngamandla: umthamo ohleliwe wamaseli okugcina usudlule i-2 TWh embonini yonke, kanti umthamo owakhiwe ekupheleni konyaka ulinganiselwa ku-1.2–1.5 TWh uma kuqhathaniswa nokuthunyelwa komhlaba wonke okulindelekile ngo-2026 okungaba ngu-850 GWh kuphela—okungaphezu kokuphindwe kabili kwesidingo sangempela. Izimpawu zokugcina komthamo kanye nokuhlehliswa kwezigunyaziso zamaphrojekthi amasha okugcina sezivele zikhona, okwenza ukwanda okungacabangeli kube yingozi ekhulayo.

Kwezobuchwepheshe, amabhethri e-solid-state kanye ne-semi-solid-state ngokusobala ashesha ukuya kwezohwebo. NgoSepthemba 21, i-Gotion High-Tech yethula ibhethri layo elinamandla aphezulu i-"Morning Star" elenzelwe ukundiza endaweni ephansi, elinokuminyana kwamandla kwe-cell okungu-330 Wh/kg futhi elisekela kokubili ukushaja ngokushesha nokushintsha ibhethri; iphrojekthi ye-solid-state electrolyte yezinga lamathani ayi-1,000 yenkampani i-Yibin Chenfeng New Materials yasayinwa e-Heyuan, e-Guangdong ngokutshalwa kwezimali okungu-RMB 530 million; kanti i-Yinpai Battery ngaphambilini yethula i-cell yesitoreji ye-semi-solid-state engu-587Ah. Kusukela ezindizeni zendiza endaweni ephansi kuya ekugcinweni kwamandla isikhathi eside, ubuchwepheshe bamabhethri besizukulwane esilandelayo buvula izimo zokusetshenziswa ezibanzi.

Kafushane, u-2026 uwunyaka obalulekile embonini yamabhethri e-lithium—unyaka oguqukayo usuka ezimpini zentengo uya ekuncintisaneni ngenani. Njengoba ukugcinwa kwamandla kuthatha indawo njengomshini omkhulu wokukhula, abadlali abanolwazi olunamandla kwezobuchwepheshe, ukulawula izindleko, namakhono okulethwa emhlabeni wonke bazothola ithuba elikhulu ekuhlelweni kabusha okuqhubekayo. Kubathengi, ukulandelela eduze amafasitela entengo, ukuqinisekisa umthamo wekhwalithi, nokuhambisana nemijikelezo yokuthuthukiswa kobuchwepheshe kuyoba imisebenzi ebalulekile yesigaba sesibili sonyaka.