Isibuyekezo Semakethe Yebhethri Ye-Lithium 2026: Ukukhula Kokugcina Amandla, Ukubusa Kwe-LFP, Nomjikelezo Omusha Wamanani

Imboni yebhethri ye-lithium isesigabeni sokushintsha ngo-2026: isidingo sokugcina amandla siyakhula ngamandla, i-lithium iron phosphate (LFP) isiphenduke indlela esemqoka engaqhakanjiswa, futhi amanani amaseli asephethe ukwehla kweminyaka emithathu futhi angene emjikelezweni omusha wokukhuphuka. Okwamanje, ukuhlanganiswa kwemboni kanye nemithetho emisha yokuhambisana nayo kuyashesha. Kubathengi basemazweni angaphandle nabasabalalisi, ukuqonda lezi zinguquko kusho ukubamba isikhathi esifanele - kanye nezinzuzo zezindleko - ekuthengeni.

Ngokusho kwe-China Automotive Battery Innovation Alliance, ukuthengiswa kwasekhaya kwamabhethri kagesi nawokugcina kufinyelele ku-783.4 GWh ezinyangeni ezinhlanu zokuqala zika-2026, kukhuphuke ngo-48.5% uma kuqhathaniswa nonyaka odlule — amabhethri okugcina akhule ngo-87.7%, edlula kude amabhethri kagesi angu-34.9%. Idatha yentela yempahla yamazwe ngamazwe ikhombisa ukuthi ukuthunyelwa kwamabhethri e-lithium aseChina kwadlula ama-USD ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-67.5 ezinyangeni eziyisishiyagalombili zokuqala zalo nyaka, kukhuphuke cishe ngo-40%. Ababikezeli bomkhakha balindele ukuthi ukuthunyelwa kwamabhethri okugcina emhlabeni wonke kuzokhula ngaphezu kuka-60% ngo-2026, kungenzeka kudlule i-1 TWh unyaka wonke. Ukugcina sekuphenduke injini enamandla kakhulu eqhuba wonke umkhakha wamabhethri e-lithium.

I-LFP isiyahlukumezeka isuka "endleleni eshibhile" yaba ukukhetha okuyisisekelo. Amaseli e-LFP manje asebalelwa ngaphezu kuka-81% wokufakwa kwamabhethri kagesi, futhi acishe abe ngu-100% emakethe yokugcina amandla. Izinto zayo ezintathu eziyisisekelo — ukuphepha (umkhawulo wokushisa okweqile ofinyelela ku-800°C), ukusebenza kahle kwezindleko, kanye nokuphila isikhathi eside komjikelezo — kuyenza ibe ikhemistri ekhethwayo yokugcina amandla kanye nezimoto ezijwayelekile ngokufanayo. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, imikhiqizo esezingeni eliphezulu njenge-LFP enokuminyana okuphezulu kokucindezelwa isalokhu inokuhlinzekwa okuncane, futhi ukuncintisana kushintsha kusuka ekwandiseni izinga kuya ebuholini bezobuchwepheshe.

Ngemuva kweminyaka emithathu yokwehla kwentengo, izintengo zamaseli okugcina amandla zikhuphuke kakhulu kusukela ngo-2026. Thatha iseli lokugcina elijwayelekile le-314Ah LFP njengesibonelo: izintengo zikhuphuke zisuka cishe ku-USD 0.043/Wh (RMB 0.31/Wh) ekupheleni kuka-2025 zaya ku-RMB 0.37–0.40/Wh — ukukhuphuka cishe ngo-25%–35%. Izintengo ze-lithium carbonate zibuyile zisuka emazingeni aphansi omjikelezo, futhi izintengo zezinto ze-LFP cathode zikhuphuke ngaphezu kuka-80% unyaka nonyaka. Ukukhuphuka kwezindleko zezinto zokusetshenziswa kuhlangene nesidingo esinamandla kuye kwashukumisela lonke uchungechunge lokuhlinzeka ekukhuphukeni — kubathengi, lokhu ngokuvamile kusho ukuthi uma ufaka ama-oda kusenesikhathi, kuba ngcono isimo sakho sezindleko.

Okokuqala, ngoSepthemba 28, uMnyango Wezimboni Nolwazi Lwetheknoloji waseChina kanye neminye iminyango eyisithupha bahlanganyela ukukhipha uHlelo Lwesihlanu Lweminyaka Eshumi Nanhlanu Lwezimboni Zamabhethri Amasha, okuhloswe ngalo ukusetshenziswa okukhulu kokuqala kwamabhethri e-all-solid-state ngo-2030 kanye nomjikelezo wokuphila wemijikelezo eyi-15,000 yamabhethri e-lithium aphila isikhathi eside — okuyisibonakaliso esicacile sohlelo lwetheknoloji oluzayo. Okwesibili, i-EU Digital Battery Passport iqala ukusebenza ngokuphoqelekile ngoFebhuwari 18, 2027: wonke amabhethri ezimoto zikagesi kanye nezimoto ezilula afakwa emakethe ye-EU kufanele ahambisane nezidingo ze-carbon footprint, okuqukethwe okusetshenzisiwe kabusha, kanye nokulandeleka. Abathengi abasebenza ezimakethe zaseYurophu kufanele bahlole ukulungela kokuhambisana nomthetho kwe-supply chain yabo manje.

Ukubheka phambili ku-2026–2027, imakethe yebhethri ye-lithium izoba nokukhula okuphezulu kwesidingo kanye nokukhuphuka kwezindleko. Ukubonakala kwama-oda emiklamo yokugcina amandla kuqinile, kodwa amanani ama-cell nezinhlelo asabhekene nengcindezi yokukhuphuka; i-LFP isiphenduke indinganiso yangempela yokugcina amandla nezinhlelo ezisetshenziswa kakhulu; futhi amazinga okuhambisana nemithetho ezimakethe ezifana ne-EU ayakhuphuka. Sincoma ukuthi abathengi bahlele ama-oda onyaka kusenesikhathi, baqaphele amafasitela entengo, futhi bakhe ubudlelwano besikhathi eside nabanikezeli abanikeza umthamo ozinzile nokuhambisana okuphelele nemithetho — okuyisivikelo esisebenza kahle kakhulu ekuguquguqukeni kwentengo nasebungozini bezinkinga zokuhlinzeka.