Isibuyekezo Semakethe Yebhethri Le-Lithium (Okthoba 2026): Ukwanda Kokugcina Amandla Kunika Amandla Umjikelezo Omusha Wokubuyiswa Kwezintengo Nokwanda Komthamo

Ngemva kweminyaka emithathu yezimpi zentengo, imboni yebhethri ye-lithium ifinyelele esigabeni esicacile sokushintsha ngo-2026 — izintengo zezinto zokusetshenziswa ziyalulama, isidingo sokugcina amandla siyakhula kakhulu, futhi abakhiqizi abahamba phambili bayagijima ukwandisa umthamo. Nansi isithombe sakamuva, nokuthi kusho ukuthini kubathengi baseNew Zealand.

I-battery-grade lithium carbonate yalulama isuka ekujuleni komlando cishe kuma-RMB 75,000/t ngasekupheleni kuka-2024, yadlula kancane kuma-RMB 150,000/t engxenyeni yokuqala ka-2026, yabe isehla yaya cishe kuma-RMB 134,000/t ngasekupheleni kukaSepthemba. U-Okthoba usathambile, ngokuhlinzeka nokufunwa kusesimweni “sokulingana okubuthakathaka.”

I-LFP yezinga lamandla ihweba nge-RMB 52,000–55,000/t kanti eyezinga lokugcina ihweba nge-RMB 51,500–53,000/t. Izinhlobo zamandla eziphakeme zokucindezela kanye nezinga lokugcina lemijikelezo emide zihlala ziqinile futhi zikhokhisa imali eyengeziwe, kuyilapho izinhlobo eziphansi zibhekene nengcindezi. Ukusetshenziswa kwehluka kakhulu: izitshalo ezihlangene ezihamba phambili zisebenza ku-85%–92%, abakhiqizi abancane basebenza ku-45%–60% kuphela.

Amaseli okugcina akhuphuke kakhulu: amaseli e-LFP angu-314Ah ajwayelekile akhuphuka esuka ku-RMB 0.26–0.31/Wh ekupheleni kuka-2025 aya ku-RMB 0.36–0.39/Wh, kanti ezinye izilinganiso zingaphezu kwe-RMB 0.40/Wh, futhi isilinganiso samabhidi ohlelo lokugcina abuyele ngaphezu kwe-RMB 0.50/Wh. Abaholi abafana noHunan Yuneng bakhuphule izindleko zokucubungula nge-RMB 2,000/t kusukela ngo-August futhi bamemezele umthamo omusha we-RMB 24 billion — “ikhwalithi ngaphezu kwentengo” manje isiyisiko lomkhakha.

Ukuthunyelwa kwamabhethri e-lithium okugcina aseShayina kudlule i-210 GWh ngekota yokuqala ka-2026, kukhuphuke ngo-120% uma kuqhathaniswa nonyaka odlule, kanti ama-oda abhukiwe kuze kube sekupheleni konyaka; ukukhiqizwa kuka-Okthoba kufinyelele ku-212.5 GWh, okuyirekhodi entsha yanyanga zonke (+3.8% inyanga nenyanga). Mayelana nenqubomgomo, uMbhalo No. 114 wasungula "inani lomthamo" wokugcina, futhi iminyango eyisikhombisa yakhipha uHlelo Lwesihlanu Lweminyaka Eyishumi Nantathu Lwemboni Yebhethri Entsha, oluhlanganisa ukugcina, izikhungo zedatha ze-AI kanye namarobhothi. Phesheya, isidingo siyakhula kulo lonke elaseYurophu, eMelika (izikhungo zedatha ze-AI), eMpumalanga Ephakathi nase-Australia, futhi imakethe yomhlaba yokugcina kulindeleke ukuthi ikhule ngaphezu kuka-40% ngo-2026.

I-Samsung SDI iguqula ingxenye yemboni yayo yase-Indiana e-US ukuze ikhiqize amaseli e-LFP okugcina amandla, futhi ukukhiqizwa okukhulu kuqala ngo-Okthoba 2026, futhi ihlela amabhethri e-LFP (BBU) ezinsizakalo ze-AI ngo-2027. I-POSCO Future M nayo isayine isivumelwano sesikhathi eside sokuhlinzeka nge-cathode ye-LFP ne-Samsung SDI esibiza cishe ama-US$4.5 billion.

INingizimu Afrika (New Zealand) okwamanje inamaphrojekthi amathathu e-BESS esikalini segridi (i-Ruakākā ne-Glenbrook-Ohurua ngamunye ane-100MW/200MWh, kanye ne-Rotohiko ene-35MW/35MWh). Ekupheleni kukaMandulo, i-Electricity Authority yashintsha imithetho yemakethe ukuze isuse izithiyo zamabhethri emakethe yokuthengisa ngobuningi, ivula amathuba amaningi esitoreji segridi ne-C&I. I-LFP iseyisinqumo esijwayelekile sesitoreji sasekhaya nesingaphandle kwegrindi ngenxa yempilo yayo ende yemijikelezo nokuphepha okuphezulu. Kubathengi, isifundo esibalulekile silula: amazinga aphezulu ancane kuyilapho ukunikezwa kwezinga eliphansi kuningi kakhulu — ikhwalithi ethembekile nokulethwa ngesikhathi kubaluleke kakhulu kunentengo ephansi kakhulu.

Ngamafuphi, imboni isuka “empini yentengo” iya “empini yekhwalithi.” Imikhiqizo enobuchwepheshe obuqinile, ukulawula izindleko kanye nokulethwa okuthembekile izozuza kakhulu kulolu hlelo olude lokukhula. DIGITIMES Asia Battery-News Electricity Authority Electricity Authority