Umbono Wemakethe Yebhethri Ye-Lithium Ka-Okthoba 2026: Ukukhula Kokugcinwa, Ukulungiswa Kwentengo Ye-Lithium Nendawo Yokushintsha Yebhethri Eliqinile

Kwadalwa ngo 10.22

Njengoba singena ku-Q4 2026, imboni yebhethri ye-lithium yomhlaba wonke isezingeni elithakazelisayo — isidingo esikhulayo sokugcina amandla ngakolunye uhlangothi, ukulungiswa kwentengo ye-lithium carbonate ngakolunye, futhi ukuthengiswa kwebhethri le-solid-state kungena ngokusemthethweni esigabeni sokubala phansi.

1. Ukugcina Amandla: Kusuka ku-"Indima Esekelayo" kuya ku-"Ingqalasizinda Entsha"

Uma amabhethri kagesi kade eyinjini eyinhloko yomkhakha, ukugcina amandla kuvele njengesimanga esikhulu sango-2026.

Ngokusho kwe-MIIT yaseShayina, umkhiqizo wamabhethri okugcina amandla esigamu sokuqala sika-2026 udlule ku-420GWh, ukhuphuke nge-110% ngokumangalisayo uma kuqhathaniswa nonyaka odlule. NgoSepthemba kuphela, ukuthengiswa kwamabhethri okugcina amandla kuleli kufinyelele ku-73.5GWh — ukukhuphuka okungu-104.4% uma kuqhathaniswa nonyaka odlule — okubalelwa cishe ingxenye eyodwa kwezintathu yokuthengiswa kwamabhethri aphelele. Imali engenayo ye-CATL yesigamu sesithathu sokwengeza ibonise ibhizinisi layo lokugcina amandla likhula cishe nge-60% uma kuqhathaniswa nonyaka odlule, okuqinisa isikhundla sayo njengomshayeli omusha wokukhula oyinhloko wenkampani.

Ukusekelwa kwenqubomgomo kuyakhula futhi. Emhlanganweni Womhlaba Wokugcina Amandla ka-2026, izikhulu ze-MIIT zathembisa ukuthi "zizovimbela ngokuqinile ukuncintisana okubulalayo" futhi ziqondise imboni isuke ekwandiseni izinga iye ekukhuleni okuholwa ubuchwepheshe. Ukugcina amandla sekukhuphukelwe ngokusemthethweni kusuka "ekubeni yisakhiwo esisekelayo" semithombo yamandla avuselelekayo kuya "kwingqalasizinda entsha" yegridi kagesi.

Isiteshi sokugcina amandla ebhethri ye-lithium esikalini segridi esinamayunithi asemakhonteyina, amandla elanga nomoya ngo-2026

2. Ukwehla Kwentengo Ye-Lithium Carbonate: Iwindi Lokuhlelwa Kabusha Kwe-Supply Chain

Ngokuphambene ngokuphelele nokukhula kokugcina amandla, izintengo ze-lithium carbonate zibe nokulungiswa okumangalisayo.

Kusukela maphakathi no-Okthoba, izintengo zesikhathi esizayo ze-lithium carbonate esezingeni lebhethri zehle zafinyelela cishe ku-RMB 96,000/ithani — ukwehla okungaphezu kuka-54% ukusuka esiqongweni sikaMeyi esasingaba ngu-RMB 210,000/ithani. Ngo-Okthoba 12 kuphela, intengo yehle ngo-11.79%, yehla ngaphansi komkhawulo we-RMB 110,000 okokuqala ngqa kulo nyaka.

Ngokuphawulekayo, lokhu kwehla kubangelwa kakhulu "ukuhweba ngokulindela" — imakethe ibeka intengo ngokulindela ukwehla kwesidingo kusukela ekupheleni kwe-Q4 kuya ekuqaleni konyaka ozayo. Empeleni, izinhlelo zokukhiqiza amabhethri zika-Okthoba zafinyelela phezulu konyaka kuzo zonke izigaba, futhi isitoko somkhakha ekupheleni kukaSepthemba sehle cishe ngo-44% ukusuka esiqongweni saso. Izisekelo azikashintshi ngendlela ehambisana nokwehla kwentengo.

Kubathengi, lokhu kunikeza ithuba lokuqinisekisa umthamo wekhwalithi nokuxoxisana ngezivumelwano zesikhathi eside. Kodwa-ke, umehluko ocacile usuvele: amaseli okugcina esikhathi eside ekhwalithi ephezulu ayaqina kuyilapho imikhiqizo yezinga eliphansi ibhekene nokugcwala ngokweqile. Abakhiqizi abahamba phambili basebenza ku-85%–92% wokusetshenziswa, kuyilapho abakhiqizi abancane besezingeni elingu-45%–60% kuphela. "Inkokhelo yekhwalithi" isithatha indawo ye-"impi yentengo" njengendlela entsha ejwayelekile yemboni.

Umfanekiso wokwehla kwentengo ye-lithium carbonate enempushana ye-lithium yezinga lebhethri, insimbi kanye namaseli ebhethri

3. Amabhethri e-Solid-State: 2027, Unyaka Wokuqala Kokukhiqizwa Okukhulu

Ngo-2026, "ibhethri le-solid-state" livela phambili futhi libonakala cishe kuyo yonke imibukiso yezimboni.

Uhlelo lweZwe laseChina lweMinistry eyisikhombisa lwe-15th Five-Year Plan lwe-New Battery Industry lubeka umgomo ocacile: ngo-2030, amabhethri e-all-solid-state azothola ukusetshenziswa okulinganiselwe kokuqala, namabhethri e-lithium anokuphila isikhathi eside afinyelela imijikelezo engu-15,000.

Intuthuko yezimboni nayo ishesha ngokulinganayo:

I-CATL isiqedile umugqa wokuhlola we-1GWh we-all-solid-state, ihlose ukukhiqiza ngezinga elincane ngo-2027;
I-BYD ihlela ukwethula izimoto zokubonisa ze-all-solid-state cishe ngo-2027;
I-Samsung SDI ne-Ecopro BM basayine isivumelwano esihlose ukuthengiswa kwe-sulfide-based all-solid-state ngo-2027;
Iseli le-EVE Energy elithi "Longquan No. 3 2.0" le-all-solid-state seliphumile emugqeni, linikeza ukuminyana kwamandla kwe-volumetric engu-1,045 Wh/L.

Ukuvumelana komkhakha kuyacaca: u-2026 unyaka wokuthengiswa kwebhethri le-semi-solid, u-2027 unyaka wokuthunyelwa kwe-demo ye-all-solid, futhi ukukhiqizwa okuphelele kulindeleke cishe ngo-2030.