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Izindaba Zemboni Yamabhethri e-Lithium (Ngasekupheleni kuka-Okthoba 2026): Izintengo Zezinto Zokwenza Ziyawa Zifinyelela Izinga Eliphansi Kuyilapho Isidingo Sokugcina Sishisa Kakhulu
Kwadalwa ngo 10.29
Eminyakeni emibili edlule, imboni yebhethri ye-lithium ibonise ukwehluka okucacile: izintengo ze-lithium carbonate zehle zaya ezingeni eliphansi kakhulu onyakeni, kuyilapho isidingo se-energy storage sangaphansi siqhubeka sikhula — abakhiqizi abaphezulu basebenza ngamandla aphelele futhi bashukumisa ukwanda komhlaba wonke. Nansi isithombe sakamuva.
1. I-lithium carbonate iphinda yehle yaya ezingeni eliphansi elisha
Maphakathi no-Okthoba, izintengo ze-lithium carbonate esezingeni lebhethri zehla zaba ngaphansi kwe-RMB 110,000/t, zicashunwa nge-RMB 108,850/t; izintengo zesikhathi esizayo zalandela, kanti inkontileka eyinhloko yavala nge-RMB 96,540/t ngo-Okthoba 28 ngemuva kokuthinta iphansi langaphakathi kosuku le-RMB 96,040/t — cishe yehliswa ngesigamu ukusuka ekuphezulu kwayo ngoMeyi. UGoldman Sachs ulindele ukuthi isilinganiso sentengo yaseChina sizokwehla nakakhulu sifinyelele cishe ku-RMB 100,000/t ngo-2027 kanye ne-RMB 84,000/t ngo-2028. Kubathengi, ukwehla kwezindleko zangenhla kushiya isikhala sokuthi intengo ibe nokuncintisana okwengeziwe ngonyaka ozayo.
2. Isidingo sokugcina siyaqhubeka nokukhula; umthamo ophezulu ugcwele ngokuphelele
I-EVE Energy yathumela ama-GWh angu-67.52 amabhethri okugcina amandla ezinyangeni eziyisishiyagalolunye zokuqala zika-2026, okunyuke ngo-39.5% uma kuqhathaniswa nonyaka odlule, kanti umthamo we-Q4 ugcwele ngokuphelele, futhi umkhiqizo wanyanga zonke wamabhethri okugcina amandla e-China ufinyelele izinga eliphezulu elisha ngo-Okthoba. Usihlalo we-CATL u-Robin Zeng uthe eNgqungqutheleni Yomhlaba Yokugcina Amandla ukuthi ukugcinwa kwamandla kusuka ekubeni yisakhiwo esisekelayo sezinto ezivuselelekayo kuya ekubeni yingqalasizinda entsha engabalulekile yegridi kagesi. Uhlelo olusha lweminyaka emihlanu lwemboni yamabhethri luhlanganisa ukugcinwa kwamandla, izikhungo zedatha ze-AI kanye norobhothi, futhi "inani lomthamo" lokugcinwa kwamandla seliqashelwe ngokusemthethweni yinqubomgomo. Inzuzo yemboni nayo iyalulama: izinkampani eziyi-19 zamabhethri e-lithium e-A-share zibike inzuzo ehlangene ye-Q3 engu-RMB 620.37 billion kanye nenzuzo emsulwa engu-RMB 75.05 billion. Ngokwehlukile, ukwehliswa okuhlongozwayo kwembuyiselo yentela yokuthekelisa yezimoto zamandla amasha kudonse ukunaka kwemakethe.
3. Izikhulu zomhlaba zisheshisa ukwandisa ukugcina
- I-CATL yethula i-9MWh TENER+ BESS yayo emhlabeni wonke e-All-Energy Australia futhi yasayina ama-MoU nabalingani abaningi base-Australia;
- I-LG Energy Solution yasayina i-MoU ne-Energix ukuze yandise ibhizinisi layo le-ESS eYurophu naseNyakatho Melika, ihlose cishe u-4.5 GWh ezinyangeni ezingama-24 ezizayo;
- I-Samsung SDI isayine isivumelwano sokuhlinzeka nge-1 GWh samaseli okugcina e-NCA enziwe e-US (e-Michigan) futhi isiqalile ukuguqula ingxenye yemboni yayo yase-Indiana ibe amaseli e-LFP okugcina amandla.
4. Izimpawu zentengo: izilinganiso zamaseli ziyahlukana, izintengo zesistimu ziyazinza
Ezintengweni ezisohlwini, iseli lokugcina le-CATL elingu-314Ah liqala ku-RMB 0.403/Wh kanti iseli layo elingu-587Ah liqala ku-RMB 0.415/Wh. Izilinganiso ezijwayelekile zamaseli angu-314Ah zisuke ku-RMB 0.26–0.31/Wh ekupheleni kuka-2025 zafinyelela cishe ku-RMB 0.36–0.39/Wh. Ngasohlangothini lwesistimu, ukuthengwa kokugcina kwe-LFP ye-high-voltage cascade ye-100MW/200MWh yakwa-Huadian kwabhidwa cishe nge-RMB 0.54–0.569/Wh, kanti izilinganiso zesistimu ezimaphakathi zibuyele phezulu kwe-RMB 0.50/Wh.
5. Okushiwo lokhu kubathengi bamazwe ngamazwe
Njengoba izintengo zezinto zokusetshenziswa ziyancipha kodwa izintengo zesistimu ziqinile, amaseli nezinhlobo zekhwalithi zisashoda kakhulu, futhi abakhiqizi abaholayo babeka phambili amakhasimende ama-oda esikhathi eside. Abathengi abahlela ukuthenga kufanele baqinisekise umthamo wekhwalithi nezikhala zokulethwa kusenesikhathi, kuyilapho beqaphela ukwehla kwentengo okungenzeka ngonyaka ozayo njengoba i-lithium carbonate ithamba — izivumelwano zokuhlinzeka zesikhathi eside ziyisivikelo esisebenzayo ekuguquguqukeni kwentengo.