Ukugcina Amandla Kungena Enkathini ye-TWh: Umbono Wemakethe Yebhethri ye-Lithium Nezimpicabadala Zokuthola

Uma singena ku-Q4 2026, imakethe yomhlaba yebhethri ye-lithium isaqhubeka emkhondweni wokukhula oqinile. Ukwanda kwesidingo sokugcina amandla, ukukhuphuka kwezintengo zezinto zokwakha, kanye nokushesha kokuhlelwa kabusha kwemakethe yizimpawu ezintathu abathengi okufanele bazibheke eduze. Nansi imininingwane mayelana namathrendi akamuva embonini.

Ngokocwaningo lwakamuva lwe-CLS (Cailianshe) oluhlanganisa abadlali abahamba phambili okubalwa kubo i-CATL, i-Sunwoda, ne-Shanshan, ukuthunyelwa kwamabhethri okugcina amandla kungena esigabeni esisha se-TWh (terawatt-hour). Ukugcinwa kwamandla sekuguqukile kusuka ekubeni yingxenye esekelayo yamandla avuselelekayo kwaba yingqalasizinda ewumongo yohlelo lwamandla, futhi ukugxila kokuhlola komkhakha sekushintsha kusuka kumincikolo yasefekthriini kuya kwimbuyiselo yomjikelezo wokuphila kweziteshi zamandla. Lokhu kusho ukuthi amakhasimende azofuna amazinga aphezulu kukhwalithi yebhethri, impilo yomjikelezo, nedatha eqinisekisiwe yasensimini yesikhathi eside.

Idatha evela ku-CNESA ibonisa ukuthi ama-oda okugcina amandla kagesi aphesheya kwezilwandle akhulile ngo-83% uma kuqhathaniswa nonyaka odlule engxenyeni yokuqala ka-2026. Izinkampani zaseShayina zathumela ama-GWh angu-380 amaseli okugcina amandla kagesi e-LFP asebenza ezingeni elikhulu emhlabeni jikelele engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka, kanti ukuthunyelwa kwawo unyaka wonke kulindeleke ukuthi kufinyelele ku-850 GWh. Ku-CIBF2026, abakhiqizi abaningi bamabhethri babike ukukhiqizwa okugcwele, kanti imibuzo yaphesheya kwezilwandle ivela kakhulu eJapane, eNingizimu Korea, eYurophu naseNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia — futhi amakhasimende manje akhathazeka kakhulu ngesikhathi sokulethwa kunentengo.

Izimpawu zentengo zicace ngokulinganayo. Amaseli okugcina amandla e-LFP angu-314Ah ajwayelekile asenyuke esuka ku-RMB 0.26–0.31/Wh ngasekupheleni kuka-2025 aya ku-RMB 0.36–0.39/Wh, kanti abanye abakhiqizi abaphezulu bacaphuna ngaphezu kwe-RMB 0.4/Wh. Intengo yanyanga zonke emaphakathi ye-LFP cathode material (storage grade) yeqa isuka cishe ku-RMB 31,700/ton ngoMeyi 2025 yaya ku-RMB 64,300/ton ngoMeyi 2026 — ukwenyuka okungaphezu kuka-100%. Izindleko zangenhla ezifana ne-lithium carbonate ne-phosphoric acid nazo ziyenyuka, kanti ukwenyuka kwentengo kudluliselwa phansi kuchungechunge lwempahla.

Isikhathi semali yekota yesithathu siqinisekisa ukululama: ngokusho kwe-TTIR, izinkampani ezingama-99 ezisohlwini zezibhamu zelithium zikhiqize imali ehlanganisiwe yama-RMB 611.7 billion ngekota yesithathu ka-2026, okukhuphuke cishe ngama-54.5% uma kuqhathaniswa nonyaka odlule, ngenzuzo emsulwa engama-RMB 44.5 billion, ekhuphuke cishe ngama-25%. Ngaleso sikhathi, umthamo ophansi wokufana uyaqhubeka nokuqedwa, kuyilapho umthamo wekhwalithi ephezulu osekelwa ubuchwepheshe, imigqa yokuhlinzeka ehlanganisiwe, kanye nokubonakala kwama-oda uncane kakhulu. Imboni isingene esigabeni sokwanda komthamo okunengqondo okulawulwa yikhwalithi, ama-oda, kanye nokuqinisekiswa kwesikhathi eside.

Ukuthuthukiswa kobuchwepheshe kuhlela kabusha ukuncintisana. Izinto ze-LFP eziphezulu kakhulu zokugcina amandla nezinhlelo zokushaja ngokushesha zibhekene nezingqinamba eziphezulu zobuchwepheshe kanye nokukhiqiza okunzima ngobuningi, futhi kulindeleke ukuthi zihlale zishoda kuze kube ngu-2028. Isidingo semishini yamabhethri e-all-solid-state siyashintsha sisuka emigqeni yokuhlola siya ekukhiqizeni ngobuningi, futhi i-CATL ikhombisile ukuthi amabhethri e-all-solid-state angase aqale ukukhiqizwa ngamanani amancane ngonyaka ozayo.

Njengomhlinzeki ogxile embonini yebhethri nokugcina amandla, i-EABK izibophezele ekuhlinzekeni ngokukhethwa komkhiqizo okuchwepheshile nokuhlinzeka okuzinzile kwamabhethri e-LFP, amabhethri e-AGV, izinhlelo zokugcina amandla zasekhaya, nokunye.