Ukugcinwa Kwamandla Kusahola: Isibuyekezo Semakethe Yebhethri ye-Lithium, Novemba 2026

Iviki lokuqala likaNovemba lethula izihloko ezintathu zebhethri le-lithium cishe ngesikhathi esisodwa — zonke zikhuluma ngokugcinwa kwamandla.

I-LG Energy Solution isayine isivumelwano sokuhlinzeka nge-LFP cathode yesikhathi eside se-KRW 1.035 trillion (cishe i-USD 778 million) nomkhiqizi wezinto zaseKorea i-L&F, okuhloswe ngaso ukusetshenziswa kwe-ESS nezikhungo zedatha ze-AI, futhi izinhlangothi zombili ziqinisa ngokusobala uchungechunge lokuhlinzeka olungaphandle kwe-China.

I-Samsung SDI iqale ukukhiqiza ngobuningi amaseli e-prismatic LFP ESS e-Indiana futhi yaqinisekisa ama-oda okugcina ase-US angu-60 GWh, ibeka indawo njengesizinda sayo sebhethri le-ESS.

I-CATL ithole inkontileka yemishini yebhethri yephrojekthi yokugcina ezimele engu-300 MW / 1.2 GWh e-Inner Mongolia.

Uma kufundwa ndawonye, umyalezo uyahambisana: isidingo asikapheli, kodwa ukuncintisana kusukile ku-“ngubani onomthamo omkhulu kunabo bonke” kuya ku-“ngubani ongahlinzeka nge-LFP ngokuthembekile.” Abadlali baphesheya bakha umthamo wasekhaya kuyilapho abaholi baseChina beqinisekisa ama-oda asezingeni lokusetshenziswa — banciphisa izikhathi zokulinda namandla entengo kubo bonke abaphakathi nendawo.

Ngokusho kwe-China Automotive Battery Innovation Alliance, ezinyangeni eziyisishiyagalolunye zokuqala zika-2026 i-China yathengisa u-1,086.4 GWh wamabhethri e-EV, okukhuphuke ngo-38.2% uma kuqhathaniswa nonyaka odlule, kanye no-595.4 GWh wamabhethri okugcina, okukhuphuke ngo-111.8%. Ukugcinwa manje sekukhula ngokuphindwe kathathu ijubane lamabhethri e-EV, futhi imboni isisukile ekubeni yinjini ye-EV kuphela yaya ekubeni yinjini ezimbili.

Idatha yezinkampani ikhomba endaweni efanayo. I-CATL ithengise ngaphezu kuka-260 GWh wamabhethri e-EV nawokugcina ehlangene ku-Q3, kanti ukugcinwa kuthatha cishe ingxenye yesine; ichaza isidingo sokugcina phesheya njengesinamandla. I-EVE Energy isayine isivumelwano sokuhlinzeka ngo-206 GWh ne-Fluence sika-2027–2031, kanti u-16 GWh usevele uhlelelwe u-2027. I-Envision iqhubeka phambili: phakathi neminyaka emithathu, ukuthunyelwa kwamangqamuzana okugcina emhlabeni wonke kungalingana noma kudlule amabhethri e-EV.

Ukuqiniseka kwesidingo kuyakhula kuyilapho ukuhlinzekwa kuncipha ezingeni eliphezulu. I-Hunan Yuneng ithengise amathani ayizigidi ezingu-1.1157 ezinto ze-phosphate cathode ezinkathini ezintathu zokuqala, okunyuke ngo-42.14% uma kuqhathaniswa nonyaka odlule; imikhiqizo yezinga eliphezulu ifinyelele ku-70% yomthamo we-Q3 futhi kuchazwa njengokuthengisiwe ngokuphelele, kanti isidingo se-LFP kulindeleke ukuthi sikhule cishe ngo-30% ngonyaka ozayo. I-Defang Nano nayo ibika umthamo olinganiselwe okwazi ukuhlinzeka ngezinto zesizukulwane sesine zokucindezela okuphezulu ngekhwalithi engaguquki.

Izintengo sezivele zikubonisa lokhu. Amaseli e-314Ah LFP ESS asuka ku-RMB 0.26–0.31/Wh ekupheleni kuka-2025 aya ku-RMB 0.36–0.39/Wh engxenyeni yokuqala ka-2026, kanti abahlinzeki abahamba phambili bangaphezu kwe-RMB 0.40/Wh; amaseli e-587Ah anentengo ephezulu nakakhulu.

Ngakolwandle lokuhlinzeka, uhlelo lwengqikithi yamaseli kaNovemba eChina lungaba ngu-323 GWh, yehla cishe ngo-5% inyanga nenyanga — inyanga yokuqala enegethivu yonyaka. Isizathu esisodwa inqubo yesikhathi: ngaphansi kweSaziso No. 2 sika-2026 soMnyango Wezezimali kanye ne-STA, isibuyiselo sokuthekelisa se-VAT emikhiqizweni yebhethri siyakhanselwa kusukela ngoJanuwari 1, 2027, ngakho-ke iwindi lokudonsela phambili le-Q4 liyancipha. Lokhu akukona ukuwa kwesidingo: ukubonakala kwama-oda kubaphakeli abahamba phambili bezokugcina izinga losizo sekudlulela ku-Q1 2027.

NgoSepthemba, iminyango eyisikhombisa yaseShayina yakhipha uHlelo Lwesihlanu Lweminyaka Eysihlanu Lwemboni Yebhethri Elitsha, okuhloswe ngalo ukusetshenziswa okukhulu kokuqala kwamabhethri e-all-solid-state ngo-2030; i-CATL ithi ukukhiqizwa kwamaqoqo amancane kungenzeka ngo-2027. Kwezimboni, nokho, amaseli okuqala e-solid-state abiza cishe izikhathi ezi-3–10 kunamabhethri e-lithium awuketshezi, futhi umthamo osebenzayo womhlaba wonke we-lithium sulfide — into ebalulekile — ungamathani angaba ngu-830 kuphela, okwanele cishe ama-GWh angu-3 amaseli. Ukuthengiswa kusaqala kakhulu.

Emabhethrini e-AGV, ukugcinwa kwamandla ekhaya, amandla okusekela kanye namaphrojekthi okuhamba okulula, i-LFP ne-lead-acid kuseyizinto zokusebenza eminyakeni emithathu kuya kwemihlanu ezayo. Asikho isizathu sokubambezela iphrojekthi ilinde i-solid-state.

Qinisekisa umthamo wangempela okhona kanye nesikhathi sokulethwa kumaseli amakhulu ajwayelekile njenge-314Ah ne-587Ah. Umehluko wenyanga eyodwa yokulethwa ungadlula amasenti ambalwa nge-Wh ngayinye.

Njengoba isibuyiselo sokuthumela ngaphandle sikhanseliwe, izilinganiso zentengo, isikhathi sempahla yamasiko kanye nemibandela yezivumelwano zesikhathi eside konke kudinga ukubuyekezwa; faka imibandela yokulungiswa kwentengo kanye noshintsho lwenqubomgomo ezivumelwaneni eziyisakhiwo.

Njengoba amaseli ekhula, ukulawula ukubaleka kokushisa kuyisisekelo sokuphepha — futhi iyindawo yokuqala lapho abahlinzeki ababuthaka begunda khona.

Isikhathi sokuphila komjikelezo, iminyaka yewaranti kanye nezindleko zokushintsha ngokuvamile zibaluleke kakhulu kunamasenti ambalwa alondolozwayo nge-Wh ngayinye.

I-EABK ihlinzeka ngamabhethri e-lead-acid ne-LiFePO4, kuhlanganise namabhethri e-AGV, amasistimu okugcina amandla asekhaya namashaja ahambisanayo, namashethi edatha, amasampula nezinhlelo zokulethwa ezitholakalayo ngephrojekthi ngayinye. Xhumana nathi ukuze uthole iseluleko sokukhetha emakethe yakho.